704
FXUS65 KPSR 141950
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1250 PM MST FRI AUG 14 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES.
- A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY.
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY
BEFORE HEATING BACK UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.
- AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MARICOPA AND PINAL
COUNTIES FOR NEXT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH BROAD TROUGHING
REMAINING OVER THE WEST COAST STATES AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF STATES. DRYING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, WITH
THE PHOENIX AREA ALREADY NOTICING MODERATE DRYING FROM THIS
MORNING'S SOUNDING WITH PWATS ALREADY DROPPING TO 1.4", COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY'S 1.69" MEASUREMENT. THOUGH A STEADY STREAM OF HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE SEEN ON GOES WV IMAGERY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CA, AND THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. THIS STREAM OF
MOISTURE IS MOSTLY PROVIDING CLOUD COVERAGE, HOWEVER WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDING EXTRA SUPPORT FOR LIFT, CAMS ARE
CONTINUING TO POINT TOWARDS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, CAMS WERE SUGGESTING A SIMILAR PATTERN
LAST NIGHT, TO NO AVAIL, SO WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVERAGE IN PLACE IS SEEMS LIKELY THAT THESE MODELS ARE
OVERESTIMATING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ONCE MORE.
STARTING TOMORROW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CA WILL BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BEGINS TO REBUILDS OVER THE
DESERT SW REGION. THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL STARTING SATURDAY. IN THE MEAN TIME, TODAY IS
STILL FORECASTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER DESERTS RANGING BETWEEN 95F-103F. BY SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK NEAR NORMAL OR BETWEEN 100F-105F, AND
LOCALIZED AREAS OF MODERATE HEATRISK WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS THE BUILDING HEAT AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS WESTWARD BACK OVER OUR REGION
BEGINNING SUNDAY. H5 HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB FROM 588-591DM
ON SATURDAY TO 594-596DM SUNDAY BEFORE PEAKING ON TUESDAY AT
AROUND 596-597DM. FORECAST H5 HEIGHTS MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY FALL CLOSE TO THE 97TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE
PERIOD, BUT FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
RECORDS. AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS AND ITS VERY
PLAUSIBLE IT MAY NEED TO GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK AS
THE RIDGE IS NOT LIKELY TO WEAKEN OR MOVE MUCH LATE NEXT WEEK. THE
LATEST NBM FORECAST TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK HAVE ALSO
BEEN TRENDING UP, BASICALLY KEEPING HIGHS AROUND 110 DEGREES. THE
MAIN QUESTION ABOUT THE HEAT WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
THAT MAY FORM OVER EASTERN ARIZONA POTENTIALLY BRING OUTFLOWS
INTO THE LOWER DESERTS AND/OR DEBRIS CLOUDS. GUIDANCE DOES AGREE
SOME MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT IT
SHOULD ONLY BE ENOUGH TO HELP HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. AS OF RIGHT
NOW, THERE ARE NO CLEAR SIGNS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
ENOUGH TO GREATLY AFFECT TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO MORE
THAN LIKELY THE CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS OF AROUND 110 DEGREES WILL
HOLD.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1735Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE OVERALL WIND PATTERN
WILL EXHIBIT THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
AOB 10KTS. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY/OUTFLOWS
WILL REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM THE TERMINALS TODAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CHALLENGE
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN
THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WITH OVERALL SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS, ALTHOUGH
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON GUSTS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON, WITH A LOW PROBABILITY (10-20%) OF DIRECT IMPACTS
TO THE TERMINALS WITH THE MORE LIKELY IMPACT BEING GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
GRADUAL DRYING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WITH MONSOON STORM ACTIVITY NEARLY COMING TO AN END AND TEMPERATURES
STARTING TO CLIMB BACK TOWARDS NORMAL. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE SLATED
TO DROP WITH AFTERNOON MINRHS OF 25-35% TODAY DROPPING INTO THE
TEENS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS TO AROUND 25% FOR HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS STARTING SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL SHIFT FROM GOOD
THROUGH SATURDAY TO FAIR EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
OVERNIGHT LIGHT EASTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
DISTRICTS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR AZZ534-537>544-546-548>551-553>555-559.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...LOJERO/FRIEDERS
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/KUHLMAN
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