720
FXUS65 KPSR 200915
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
215 AM MST THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA FOLLOWED BY
SOME ISOLATED STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS.
- AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE EXTREME HEAT TODAY OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA, HIGHS WILL RETURN TO AROUND 110
DEGREES BY FRIDAY, LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING DUE
TO CONTINUED AREAS OF HIGH-END MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIP STARTING FRIDAY, LIKELY REMAINING
CONFINED TO THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IT IS AMAZING WHAT CAN HAPPEN WHEN THE LOWER DESERTS FINALLY GETS
A VIRTUALLY UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. MODELS WERE SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT OUTFLOW ALONG WITH SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOPING INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS, BUT THERE
WASN'T A STRONG CONSENSUS ON ITS EVOLUTION. YESTERDAY WAS JUST
ONE OF THOSE DAYS WHERE EVERYTHING CAME TOGETHER PERFECTLY FOR A
LARGE MCS TO DEVELOP AND TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS. MANY LOCATIONS WITHIN AND AROUND THE PHOENIX AREA
REPORTED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 50-60 MPH WITH A FEW REPORTS AROUND 65
MPH. THE AFTERNOON BALLOON LAUNCHES FOR KPHX BOTH SHOWED
1500-1800 J/KG OF CAPE WITH SIMILAR VALUES OF DCAPE, WHILE CIN WAS
LOW ENOUGH TO BE EASILY OVERCOME FROM A MODEST TO STRONG OUTFLOW.
THE CONVECTION OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN BECAME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO
PERSIST INTO THE LOWER DESERTS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING ONCE THE CAP WAS BROKEN. THE STORMS ARE EVEN
REDEVELOPING EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG A MID-LEVEL CONVERGENT LINE
FROM PHOENIX TO SHOW LOW. HI-RES CAMS SOMEWHAT SHOW THIS LINE OF
CONVECTION, BUT THEY HAVE NO IDEA HOW LONG IT MAY LAST. ANY
TRAINING OF STORMS WITHIN THIS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST LINE COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH
THROUGH 4 AM. WE ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN
BY SUNRISE.
THE REST OF TODAY IS LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE QUIET AS THE
ATMOSPHERE WAS EFFECTIVELY OVERTURNED BY THE WIDESPREAD STORM
ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED SUBSTANTIALLY WITH READINGS
INTO THE 70S OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER
DESERTS. CLOUD COVER IS ALSO EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS MORNING, POTENTIALLY KEEPING DAYTIME HIGHS FROM
EVEN REACHING 105 DEGREES IN THE PHOENIX AREA. HI-RES CAMS ARE
FINALLY CATCHING ON TO THE OVERTURNED ATMOSPHERE SHOWING MOSTLY
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM THROUGH SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THEN DISSIPATING BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
LOWER DESERTS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO AROUND 10-15% IN THE PHOENIX
AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. LITTLE HAS
CHANGED WITH THE WESTERN LOWER DESERTS WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING
QUITE HOT WITH ELEVATED DEW POINTS. FORECAST HIGHS OF 109-112
DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA WITH EVEN HIGHER HEAT INDICES.
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER IS FAVORED TO SHIFT EAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO COLORADO ON FRIDAY AND THEN POTENTIALLY WOBBLE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND/OR INTO WESTERN TEXAS BY
SUNDAY. THE EXPECTED SHIFT IN THE HIGH SHOULD TURN WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTH USHERING IN DRIER AIR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. GUIDANCE
SHOWS ENOUGH DRYING TO PUSH LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS TO 9-10 G/KG
ON FRIDAY TO AS LOW AS 7-8 G/KG ON SATURDAY. POPS FOR BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY DROP TO BELOW 10% FOR THE LOWER DESERTS TO 10-20%
OVER PORTIONS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING
MORE CONVECTION FORMING NEAR THE MEXICO/ARIZONA BORDER ON FRIDAY,
SO WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SORT OF OUTFLOW EMANATING NORTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RECOVER BY FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
TOPPING OUT AT OR JUST ABOVE 110 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS. FORECAST DEW POINTS ARE ALSO SHOWN TO DECREASE CLOSER TO
50-55 DEGREE RANGE BY SATURDAY LOWERING HEAT INDICES CLOSER TO 110
DEGREES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE HIGH FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE POSITION OF THE HIGH IS LIKELY TO SET UP SOMEWHERE
OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS BY MONDAY WITH LITTLE TO
NO MOVEMENT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS POSITION CAN CAUSE
HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IN MOISTURE LEVELS FOR OUR AREA WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE TRYING TO ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA BY
SUNDAY OR MONDAY, BUT NBM FORECAST POPS ARE AT MOST 10-15% FOR THE
LOWER DESERTS. AT THIS POINT, WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT
IF MOISTURE DOES EVENTUALLY IMPROVE ENOUGH STORM CHANCES ARE
LIKELY TO BE HIGHER THAN WHAT THE NBM IS DEPICTING. ANOTHER
WILDCARD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT MAY ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF THIS OCCURS, IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO IMPROVE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN
ARIZONA FOR SUNDAY AND/OR MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE
STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH AS H5 HEIGHTS HOVER BETWEEN 593-596DM
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME HIGHS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH DAY TO DAY FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT, BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THE CONVECTIVE
CHANCES. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT THROUGH
SUNDAY, BUT IT SEEMS QUITE LIKELY IT WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED
AGAIN AT SOME POINT.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0600Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS ALONG WITH REDUCED VIS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS THROUGH
ABOUT 07-08Z. FURTHER SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS FAR
AS 11-12Z, BUT DIRECT IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS IS LESS CERTAIN
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY SUNRISE. AS
LONG AS THE RAINFALL REMAINS IN THE VICINITY, ERRATIC WINDS MAY BE
COMMON THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND EVEN AS FAR AS THE MORNING
HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED EARLIER THAN USUAL
BY THE LATE MORNING TIMEFRAME. ANOTHER WINDOW OF OUTFLOW POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST THURSDAY EVENING, BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SE'RLY COMPONENT AT KIPL, WHILE SSE TO
SW'RLY DIRECTIONS WILL BE COMMON AT KBLH. PERIODS OF VRB
CONDITIONS MAY BE OBSERVED AROUND THE DAWN AT EACH TERMINAL. SCT
CLOUD DECKS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST WINDOW,
WITH THE LOWEST BASES AROUND 15 KFT.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED MOISTURE LEVELS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH A TEMPORARY
REPRIEVE FROM THE EXTREME HEAT ACROSS THE EASTERN DISTRICTS.
EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. DRIER AIR WILL THEN
WORK ITS WAY IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH EVEN LOWER CHANCES
FOR RAIN WHILE TEMPERATURES HEAT BACK UP TO EXTREME LEVELS.
MINRHS OF 20-30% TODAY WILL LOWER TO 15-25% BEGINNING FRIDAY.
WINDS SHOULD OVERALL FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES WITH
SOME MODEST AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ530>544-546-
548>551-553>555-559-560.
CA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ562-565>567-
569-570.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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