229
FXUS65 KPSR 312050
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
150 PM MST MON AUG 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING, MAINLY WEST OF PHOENIX, WITH FLOOD WATCHES
IN EFFECT.
- QUIET WEATHER UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE POTENTIALLY ANOTHER MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF
WEATHER MATERIALIZES BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND IS THE MAIN FEATURE THAT
DROVE THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACTIVITY THAT WAS OBSERVED ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. RAINFALL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN ON THE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SIDE AND THUS
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE REMAINED UNDER 0.3",
WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OBSERVING AMOUNTS UP TO 0.5". MOST OF
THIS ACTIVITY HAS MOVED EAST OF PHOENIX AND WILL BE ENDING IN GILA
COUNTY DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE OVERWORKED ATMOSPHERE
FROM THE MORNING ACTIVITY WILL ESSENTIALLY END THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE REST OF TODAY FOR
MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT WEST OF PHOENIX, ACROSS PORTIONS OF LA PAZ
INTO NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY AS WELL AS WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY AS
AMPLE HEATING WILL CAUSE MLCAPE VALUES TO PEAK AT 1500-2000 J/KG,
WHICH IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
ALTHOUGH STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, THE
PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1-2" POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH
ANY TRAINING CELLS. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO UTAH BY THIS EVENING, MUCH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT WILL BE LIFTING TO THE NORTH AS WELL AND THUS ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH QUIETER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT.
QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIR DUE TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE TERRAIN ESCARPMENTS GIVEN THAT
BOUNDARY LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT WITH MIXING
RATIOS ABOVE 10 G/KG. HOWEVER, BY WEDNESDAY, MIXING RATIOS WILL
HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN 10 G/KG WITH LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY
EXPECTED AND THUS STORM CHANCES SHOULD BE COMPLETELY ELIMINATED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.
DUE TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL THIS MORNING, AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ WILL LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 90 DEGREES WHILE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER HIGHS DUE TO
MORE SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS AS READINGS
TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 100S. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH MUCH MORE SUNSHINE, SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE LOW 100S
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS AND TOP OUT INTO THE MID
100S ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS, WITH THESE READINGS NEAR TO A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
FORECAST CONCERN IS INCREASING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BUT MORE SO FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. NHC SHOWS A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY NEAR 10N AND 107W WITH A 90%
CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION THIS WEEK AND LIKELY TRACKING
NORTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA BY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE
IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS POTENTIAL TROPICAL
SYSTEM, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING TO A BIT BETTER
CONSENSUS THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. ROUGHLY 90% OF THE GEFS AND
EPS MEMBERS NOW SHOW PWATS INCREASING TO 1.8-2.2" OVER PORTIONS OF
OUR AREA BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS LIKELY INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, POPS HAVE GONE UP STARTING FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. IT WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST 2 OR 3 MORE DAYS UNTIL WE
HAVE A GOOD IDEA ON WHAT WOULD LIKELY HAPPEN LATE THIS WEEK.
GETTING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION IS DEFINITELY NOT
UNUSUAL, BUT MANY TIMES WHEN IT HAPPENS WE STRUGGLE TO BUILD
INSTABILITY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND POOR LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER, IT SEEMS QUITE LIKELY A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED
ALONG OR JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WHICH MAY PROVIDE FOR ENOUGH
UPPER LEVEL FORCED ASCENT TO OVERCOME THE LIKELY LACKLUSTER
INSTABILITY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS
IT VERY WELL COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL AT
SOME POINT.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1740Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
LINGERING SHRA/VCSH CONDITIONS AND LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ARE THE
ONLY WEATHER ISSUES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
MIDLEVEL CIGS. THE AREA OF SHOWERS FOCUSED TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE
PHOENIX AIRSPACE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTH/EAST THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS, ENDING SHRA/VCSH CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR EASTERLY DIRECTIONS AND
LIKELY WILL TREND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE TS ARE LIKELY TO FORM IN LA PAZ, YUMA,
AND PERHAPS EVENING WESTERN MARICOPA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR TS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS IS TOO
LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAF (BELOW 20%) AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE TERMINALS. BY TOMORROW, WINDS WILL RETURN
TO MORE LIGHT AND DIURNAL TENDENCIES UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THE PRIMARY CONCERN AT THE SOUTHEAST CA TERMINALS WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR DISTANT TS OUTFLOW WINDS TO CAUSE AN ABRUPT E/SE WIND
SHIFT AND HIGHER GUSTS EARLY THIS EVENING, AS WELL AS A LOW
CHANCE (~10%) FOR TS WITHIN THE VICINITY OF KBLH MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SE TO S AT BOTH TERMINALS,
THEN SHIFTING SW DURING THE EVENING. SPEEDS AT KBLH WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY ABOVE 10 KTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE LOW 20S DURING THE
DAYTIME, THEN RELAXING AOB 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. OCCASIONAL SW/W GUSTS
20-25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KIPL THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
FIRE WEATHER
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
DISTRICTS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES MOSTLY ENDING THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT MINRHS OF 15-25% ACROSS THE
WESTERN DISTRICTS TO 35-50% OVER THE EASTERN DISTRICTS TODAY
BEFORE FALLING BACK TO 15-25% AREAWIDE BY WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND NORMAL OVER WESTERN DISTRICTS TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN DISTRICTS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR AZZ531-533-534-538-
539-559.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LOJERO
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...WHITTOCK
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN/LOJERO
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