070
FXUS65 KPSR 171138
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
438 AM MST THU SEP 17 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SHOWERS AND RUNNING WASHES AND STREAMS SHOULD CLEAR
OUT AND DRY UP THIS MORNING WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED
HEADING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
- VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING EACH DAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BRING A RETURN OF
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES TO ARIZONA.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE TROPICAL LOW THAT MOVED THROUGH OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
PRODUCED QUITE A SOAKER FOR A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL AZ. THERE
WAS A LARGE AREA OF 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL FROM APACHE
JUNCTION AND EAST MESA THROUGH FOUNTAIN HILLS AND NORTH
SCOTTSDALE TO ANTHEM AND NEW RIVER, WHICH LED TO SIGNIFICANT
RUNNING WASHES AND LOTS OF STREET FLOODING. JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT,
EARLY THIS MORNING, SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWED THE SOUTHERN END
AND LAST OF THE STRETCHED OUT LOW CIRCULATION WAS MOVING UP
THROUGH PINAL COUNTY TOWARD GILA COUNTY, WITH MODERATE SHOWERS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THE RISK FOR
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING FROM VERY HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED.
HOWEVER, THE FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 5 AM MST FOR AREAS
EAST OF PHOENIX, INCLUDING ALL OF SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY, WHERE A
FEW HOURS OF MODERATE RAIN MAY ADD UP TO CAUSE SOME FLOODING
IMPACTS. SOME WASHES AND FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ MAY ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE FLOW THROUGH THIS MORNING.
DRY AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO THE REGION, INITIALLY JUST ALOFT,
RATHER QUICKLY TODAY AS THE REMNANT TROPICAL CIRCULATION LIFTS
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS BY NOON. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BE
OVERWORKED. RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TO THE EAST NOT LONG AFTER, WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL RAIN AFTER NOON FOR ALL AREAS. DRYING WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CLIP THROUGH SOUTHEAST AZ
FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THIS WAVE WILL NOT HAVE ANY INFLUENCE ON THE
LOCAL WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND NEAR NORMAL TO THE WEST. HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO REACH THE MID-90S ACROSS MARICOPA AND PINAL COUNTIES AND AROUND
100 DEGREES OUT WEST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL THEN BE AROUND 100 DEGREES
ACROSS ALL LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS AND IT WILL STILL FEEL A BIT
MUGGY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ WHERE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
HOLDING ON WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STILL IN UPPER-50S TO
MID-60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A MORE SIGNIFICANT TOTAL COLUMN PUSH OF DRY AIR IS EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND, COINCIDING WITH A MID-LEVEL FRONT MOVING THROUGH AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE WEST. THIS WILL FINALLY
SCOUR OUT THE LINGERING PBL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ.
PWATS ARE FORECAST DROP AS LOW AS 0.4-0.7" ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
DESERTS BY SUNDAY. WITH THIS DRY OF AIR YOU CAN COUNT OUT ANY
CHANCE AT RAIN AND COUNT ON PLENTY OF SUN. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO
HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES, KEEPING THEM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE WEST WILL CONTINUE ON INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY AND ANOTHER
PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO THE CA COAST. WHAT THIS NEXT PACIFIC LOW DOES
ONCE REACHING THE CA COAST MONDAY IS A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN, BUT
IT MAY BE WHAT HELPS EVENTUALLY DRIVE MOISTURE BACK UP IN THE
DESERTS AND DRIVE THE NEXT CHANCE AT RAIN IN THE AZ DESERTS.
LATEST NBM SHOWS SLIGHT POPS (10-30%) RETURNING BY TUESDAY.
AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH
THIS OUTLOOK, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100
DEGREES. WITH THE DRIER AIR COMING IN, THE MORNING LOWS WILL
FINALLY BE MORE PLEASANT, CONSISTENTLY DROPPING INTO THE 70S FOR
MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1135Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD, WITH NO USUAL WESTERLY SHIFT ANTICIPATED. WINDS WILL
LIKELY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING,
INSTEAD OF THE WESTERLY SHIFT. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 10 KT. CIGS
EARLY THIS MORNING ARE AROUND 5-7 KFT AND WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AND
LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. CLEAR SKIES WILL THEN RETURN DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT KIPL, CURRENT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL GO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
EVENING AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS MAY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT TIMES DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS. AT KBLH, CURRENT
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL GO SOUTHERLY LATE THIS MORNING AND
THEN GO SOUTHWESTERLY LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS AT BOTH TERMINALS
WILL BE AOB 10 KT. FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS WITH BASES AOA 4-5 KFT MAY
PASS OVER THE TERMINALS AT TIMES THIS MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
OVERALL THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
LINGERING WET GROUNDS AND ELEVATED SURFACE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY, BUT A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY, INITIALLY
ALOFT, FOLLOWED BY A MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING THIS WEEKEND. AFTER
SHOWERS DISSIPATE/MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, NO ADDITIONAL
RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM
RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 25-45%, WITH DRIEST
CONDITIONS IN SOUTHEAST CA. AS DRYING CONTINUES, MIN RHS WILL DIP
AS LOW AS 10-20% SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ WILL BE GOOD THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS AT 45-75% AND THEN
DRY SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL MOSTLY FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS WITH MODEST AFTERNOON UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY
GUSTINESS (15-25 MPH).
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BENEDICT
LONG TERM...BENEDICT
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH
FIRE WEATHER...BENEDICT
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