046
FXUS65 KPSR 011954
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1254 PM MST THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH ZERO RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION, A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES AT LEAST INTO A NORMAL RANGE STARTING
THIS WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MUCH DRIER AND QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE AHEAD AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAINY CONDITION EARLIER IN THE WEEK CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARDS AND IS NOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN TEXAS AND THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. MEANWHILE TO THE REGION'S WEST A LARGE RIDGE IS
BUILDING AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE DESERT SW BY LATE FRIDAY.
UNTIL THEN, TODAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB, WITH THE
WESTERN LOWER DESERTS ALREADY INFLUENCED BY THE RIDGE AS AFTERNOON
HIGHS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, OR NEAR NORMAL. TEMPERATURES IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S OR JUST SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. STARTING FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SET UP OVER THE
DESERT SW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WILL RESPOND TO NEAR
TO 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY OCTOBER. DURING THE PEAK OF
THE HEIGHTS, LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL
PERCENTILE IS IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE, MOSTLY IN WESTERN DESERTS,
AND ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN WEATHER
IMPACT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK WILL BE EASTERLY GUSTY
WINDS. THESE EASTERLY MORNING GUSTS, EASILY REACHING 20-25 MPH
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA, WILL SUPPLY THE AREA WITH SOME WEAK
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE WILL
NOT BE NEARLY ENOUGH TO BRING ANY RAIN CHANCES, AS THE UPPER
ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY, BUT IT WILL KEEP DEW POINTS
AT THE SURFACE IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LITTLE WILL CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY EVEN FOR THE BULK
OF NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS HEAVILY FAVORED TO REMAIN
OVER OR AT LEAST VERY CLOSE TO OUR REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK
KEEPING US UNDER DRY AIR ALOFT BUT WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL SEMI-MOIST FLOW. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE AND THE DRY AIR
SHOULD KEEP A LID ON ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES MOST DAYS.
THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT MAYBE SOME CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT
WEEK OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN EASTERN ARIZONA, BUT AS OF NOW THE
HIGHEST POPS BARELY BREACH 10% OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RISE A BIT FURTHER DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE WESTERN DESERTS LIKELY REACHING 100-104
DEGREES, WHILE THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER DESERTS MAY GET
CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. THESE EARLY OCTOBER TEMPERATURES WOULD RANGE
FROM 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE AT
LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT GENERALLY STAYING IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE THE DAILY EASTERLY BREEZY CONDITIONS DUE TO THE EXPECTED
POSITION OF THE HIGH OVER OR JUST TO OUR NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH
SETTING UP TO OUR SOUTH. THE EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD REACH THEIR
PEAK OVER THE WEEKEND AND DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH GUSTS IN SOME PLACES REACHING 30-35 MPH. AS DAYTIME HEATING
INCREASES AND THE MIXED LAYER RISES, THE WINDS WILL BE MORE
DISPERSED AND DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE SHOULD KEEP
THESE DAILY EASTERLY MOSTLY MORNING BREEZES THROUGH AT EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND POSSIBLY LONGER.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1740Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD, WITH LIGHT SPEEDS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 8-13 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS
BEGINNING AROUND 15-16Z FRIDAY MORNING. WIND DIRECTIONS MAY STILL
TRY TO VEER SW LATE THIS AFTERNOON FOR A BRIEF PERIOD, BUT
CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS LOW. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
LLWS IMPACTS TONIGHT AFTER 07Z, BUT MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW TAF THRESHOLD (30+ KT LLWS).
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS WILL EXIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS, WITH
SPEEDS REMAINING AOB 6 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
PERSISTENT CLEAR SKIES AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETS UP OVER THE
REGION. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES CONSISTENTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS. MINRHS
WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM 15-25% OVER THE WESTERN DISTRICTS TO 25-35%
FOR THE EASTERN DISTRICTS WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES. AFTER LIGHT WINDS TODAY, BREEZY EAST WINDS WILL SET UP
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. MORNING WIND
GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON STARTING FRIDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...BENEDICT/SALERNO
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN/RYAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page