834
FXUS65 KPSR 022307
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
407 PM MST FRI OCT 2 2026
UPDATE...UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO WARM
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- PERIODS OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN AZ THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WITH GUSTS REACHING 20-30 MPH AT TIMES.
- DRY WEATHER WITH ZERO RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
GOES MID-LVL WV IMAGERY AND RAP40 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD OVER SOUTHERN CA AND THE GREAT
BASIN REGION AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM EARLIER IN THE WEEK HAS
RETROGRADED SLIGHTLY TO THE SW AND IS NOW POSITIONED OVER WESTERN TX
AND NM/MEXICO BOARDER. THIS HAS ESTABLISHED EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITION TO THE ADVECTION OF VERY DRY AIR. PWATS ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS ARE FORECASTED TO BE GENERALLY BELOW 1", AND WITH THE STRONG
SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD ANY CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AHEAD IS
ESSENTIALLY ZERO. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND LOW TO THE SE OF
OUR REGION, THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW DUE TO
THE ESTABLISHED PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
SPEEDS REACHING UP TO 20-30 MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS LIKELY REACHING 35
MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHCENTRAL AZ.
THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE H5
HEIGHTS TO BETWEEN 588-591 DAM OR JUST INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, ESPECIALLY IN SOCAL AND INTO
NORTHERN AZ. TEMPERATURES IN RESPONSE WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S WHILE SOCAL WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER, INTO THE UPPER 90S
TO EVEN REACHING INTO THE LOW 100S IN LOCALIZED AREAS. WHILE THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS RELATIVELY DRY, SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE
MID 50S KEEPING OVERNIGHT LOWS 6F-10F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS
FLATTENING AS A WEAK TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE REBUILDING OVER SOCAL AND THE GREAT BASIN
REGION AGAIN BY MID- WEEK. AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES, THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF DIP IN TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY BEFORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
OCCURS FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE WESTERN
DESERTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE LOW 100S MONDAY AND TUESDAY
BEFORE TOPPING OUT AROUND 100-105 DEGREES AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY.
THE LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AZ WILL ALSO SEE TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY RISE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES BY MID-WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE WARM,
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. OVERALL, DAILY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED PEAK AROUND 4-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND DRY AIR IN THE MID LVLS
SHOULD KEEP A LID ON ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE, EVEN OVER THE AZ
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THUS RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO EACH
DAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 2305Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNSET, WITH LIGHTER SPEEDS AOB 10 KTS EXPECTED DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTS, SLIGHTLY
STRONGER UPWARDS OF 20-25 KTS, CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY FROM THE
MID/LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME LLWS UPWARDS OF
20-25 KTS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AT KIPL, EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT MATERIALIZING BY
THE LATE MORNING HOURS. AT KBLH, NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN AOB 10 KTS, ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS BETWEEN
10-15 KTS IS LIKELY LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
MAINLY AT KBLH.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH A STEADY WARMING TREND EXPECTED FROM THE
BEGINNING TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MINRHS WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM
15-25% OVER THE WESTERN DISTRICTS TO 25-35% FOR THE EASTERN
DISTRICTS WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. A
PERSISTENT BREEZY EASTERLY GRADIENT WIND WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE WILL BECOME
COMMON.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...SALERNO
AVIATION...LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...SALERNO
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