101
FXUS65 KPSR 031128
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
428 AM MST SAT OCT 3 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND
EVENTUALLY INTO A WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOWER DESERT HIGHS REACH UP TO 98-105 DEGREES.
- PERIODS OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN AZ THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GUSTS REACHING 20-30 MPH AT TIMES.
- DRY WEATHER WITH ZERO RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LATEST GOES MID-LVL WV IMAGERY AND 500 MB OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER N AZ WHILE A CUTOFF LOW
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER FAR W TX AND SE NM. OUR FORECAST AREA LIES
BETWEEN BOTH OF THESE FEATURES, RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY NE FLOW
ALOFT. THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE
PREDOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS HGHTS ALOFT PEAK AROUND
590-591 DAM WHICH IS NEAR THE 97TH PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY
OCTOBER. DUE TO EXPANSIVE POSITIVE HGHT ANOMALIES, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER
DESERT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE 100-103 DEGREE
RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE, MAINLY
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING WHICH CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO ELEVATED WINDS THAT WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THESE ABOVE NORMAL LOW/HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS.
DUE TO AN INCREASED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS REACHING 20-30 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AZ. THE STRONGEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE FROM
EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THAT LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH COULD MATERIALIZE
FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF E AND SE AZ AS WELL AS
IN SOUTHWESTERN AZ AS WINDS BECOME CHANNELED THROUGH TERRAIN FEATURES.
THEREFORE, PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE YUMA AREA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW THE
UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE WWD AS AN UPPER-LVL
TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN 500 MB HGHTS OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AZ EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER POSITIVE HGHT ANOMALIES
WILL STILL EXIST OVER SE CA AND SW AZ WHICH WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS IN
THE LOW 100S. AS RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO EXPAND BACK OVER N AZ BY
MID-WEEK, SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE WITH HIGHS
ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 100-105 DEGREES AND
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES FOR THE CENTRAL AZ DESERTS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THESE WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH POTENTIALLY ARRIVES ONTO THE
WEST COAST BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL, SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
COUPLED WITH N-NE FLOW IN THE MID-LVLS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST WITH NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1128Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD UNDER
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 10
KTS THROUGH SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED
GUSTS UPWARDS 20-25 KTS MATERIALIZING AFTER 15-16Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. SOME LLWS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KTS WILL BE
PRESENT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS UNDER CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AT KIPL, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT
MATERIALIZING FROM THE AFTERNOON HOUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING,
SPEEDS REMAIN AOB 10 KT. WINDS WILL THEN GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AT KBLH, WINDS
WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE NORTH AND EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. OVERALL WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AOB 10 KTS,
ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER SPEEDS BETWEEN 12-17 KTS ARE LIKELY
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE FURTHER WARMING OCCURS
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MINRHS WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM
15-25% OVER THE WESTERN DISTRICTS TO 25-35% FOR THE EASTERN
DISTRICTS WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE. A
PERSISTENT BREEZY EASTERLY GRADIENT WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 8-12 MPH
WITH EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SALERNO
LONG TERM...SALERNO
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH/LOJERO
FIRE WEATHER...SALERNO
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