390
FXUS65 KPSR 031745
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1045 AM MST SAT OCT 3 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND
EVENTUALLY INTO A WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS LOWER DESERT HIGHS REACH UP TO 98-105 DEGREES.
- PERIODS OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN AZ THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GUSTS REACHING 20-30 MPH AT TIMES.
- DRY WEATHER WITH ZERO RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LATEST GOES MID-LVL WV IMAGERY AND 500 MB OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER N AZ WHILE A CUTOFF LOW
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER FAR W TX AND SE NM. OUR FORECAST AREA LIES
BETWEEN BOTH OF THESE FEATURES, RESULTING IN CONTINUED DRY NE FLOW
ALOFT. THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE
PREDOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS HGHTS ALOFT PEAK AROUND
590-591 DAM WHICH IS NEAR THE 97TH PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY
OCTOBER. DUE TO EXPANSIVE POSITIVE HGHT ANOMALIES, TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH UP TO 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWER
DESERT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE ALONG AND WEST OF THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE 100-103 DEGREE
RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE, MAINLY
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING WHICH CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO ELEVATED WINDS THAT WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THESE ABOVE NORMAL LOW/HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS.
DUE TO AN INCREASED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS REACHING 20-30 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AZ. THE STRONGEST GUSTS LOOK TO BE FROM
EARLY MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON TIME PERIOD. IT IS ALSO
POSSIBLE THAT LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH COULD MATERIALIZE
FOR A FEW HOURS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF E AND SE AZ AS WELL AS
IN SOUTHWESTERN AZ AS WINDS BECOME CHANNELED THROUGH TERRAIN FEATURES.
THEREFORE, PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AROUND
THE YUMA AREA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW THE
UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE WWD AS AN UPPER-LVL
TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN 500 MB HGHTS OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AZ EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER POSITIVE HGHT ANOMALIES
WILL STILL EXIST OVER SE CA AND SW AZ WHICH WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS IN
THE LOW 100S. AS RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO EXPAND BACK OVER N AZ BY
MID-WEEK, SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE WITH HIGHS
ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 100-105 DEGREES AND
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES FOR THE CENTRAL AZ DESERTS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THESE WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH POTENTIALLY ARRIVES ONTO THE
WEST COAST BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL, SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
COUPLED WITH N-NE FLOW IN THE MID-LVLS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST WITH NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1744Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AROUND 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 KTS. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH GUSTS BRIEFLY REACHING UP AS HIGH AS 30-35 KTS BETWEEN
15-18Z. WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AROUND 7-11 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST. MINOR LLWS IMPACTS MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH 1000-2000 FT AGL WINDS INCREASING TO 30-35
KTS, BUT SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW TAF
THRESHOLD.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH TERMINALS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 7-12 KTS, AND
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KBLH THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTER
SPEEDS, WITH VRB CONDITIONS, ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE FURTHER WARMING OCCURS
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MINRHS WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM
15-25% OVER THE WESTERN DISTRICTS TO 25-35% FOR THE EASTERN
DISTRICTS WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE. A
PERSISTENT BREEZY EASTERLY GRADIENT WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 8-12 MPH
WITH EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SALERNO
LONG TERM...SALERNO
AVIATION...BENEDICT
FIRE WEATHER...SALERNO
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