302
FXUS65 KPSR 032044
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
144 PM MST SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND EVENTUALLY INTO A WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGE BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOWER DESERT HIGHS REACH UP TO 98-105
DEGREES.
- PERIODS OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN AZ THROUGH MONDAY WITH
GUSTS REACHING 20-30 MPH AT TIMES.
- DRY WEATHER WITH ZERO RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH AN AREA OF STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING DOMINANT OVER THE DESERT SW, CENTERED OVER N
AZ, WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE REGIONS EAST. THE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK THIS WEEKEND WITH H5 HEIGHTS REACHING
BETWEEN 590-591 DAM, WHICH IS NEAR THE 97TH PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THIS UN-SEASONALABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP TRENDING 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE WESTERN LOWER
DESERTS AND ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WILL BE THE UPPER 90S
TO LOW 100S. MEANWHILE, SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ WILL BE SLIGHTLY
"COOLER" WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY STAYING BELOW THE CENTURY MARK,
HOWEVER VERY LOCALIZED AREAS MAY STILL SEE THOSE DREADED TRIPLE
DIGITS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL (8F-12F),
FLIRTING WITH AND LIKELY BREAKING RECORD WARM LOWS THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT LOWS ACROSS THE REGION TO BE
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AND WITH THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS
HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN REMAINING IN PLACE DRY NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE DUE TO THE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
GUSTS REACHING 20-30 MPH AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
AZ. PERIODS OF GUSTS BETWEEN 35-40 MPH COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF E AND SE AZ AS WELL AS IN SOUTHWESTERN AZ
AS WINDS BECOME CHANNELED THROUGH TERRAIN FEATURES, BEFORE QUICKLY
RELAXING GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS,
PATCHES OF BLOWING DUST WILL BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOW THE
UNSEASONABLY STRONG RIDGE WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE WWD AS AN UPPER-LVL
TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP A FEW DEGREES ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A TEMPORARY WEAKNESS IN 500 MB HGHTS OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL AZ EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER POSITIVE HGHT ANOMALIES
WILL STILL EXIST OVER SE CA AND SW AZ WHICH WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS IN
THE LOW 100S. AS RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO EXPAND BACK OVER N AZ BY
MID-WEEK, SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE WITH HIGHS
ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 100-105 DEGREES AND
APPROACHING 100 DEGREES FOR THE CENTRAL AZ DESERTS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THESE WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH POTENTIALLY ARRIVES ONTO THE
WEST COAST BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL, SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
COUPLED WITH N-NE FLOW IN THE MID-LVLS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
FORECAST WITH NEAR ZERO RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1744Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING HOURS THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AROUND 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS
AROUND 20-25 KTS. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH GUSTS BRIEFLY REACHING UP AS HIGH AS 30-35 KTS BETWEEN
15-18Z. WINDS WILL STAY ELEVATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AROUND 7-11 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST. MINOR LLWS IMPACTS MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH 1000-2000 FT AGL WINDS INCREASING TO 30-35
KTS, BUT SHEAR MAGNITUDES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW TAF
THRESHOLD.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. E-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH TERMINALS WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY AT OR BELOW 7-12 KTS, AND
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS AT KBLH THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTER
SPEEDS, WITH VRB CONDITIONS, ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE FURTHER WARMING OCCURS
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MINRHS WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM
15-25% OVER THE WESTERN DISTRICTS TO 25-35% FOR THE EASTERN
DISTRICTS WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AREA-WIDE. A
PERSISTENT BREEZY EASTERLY GRADIENT WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 8-12 MPH
WITH EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...SALERNO
AVIATION...BENEDICT
FIRE WEATHER...SALERNO
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