306
FXUS65 KPSR 042119
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
219 PM MST SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH MINIMAL DAY-TO-DAY CHANGES
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK, AS AFTERNOON HIGHS REACH 97 TO
103 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
- BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
MORNINGS AND EARLY AFTERNOONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN ARIZONA THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS REACHING 20-35
MPH.
- TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
WARM TO NEAR RECORD-LEVEL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- DRY WEATHER WITH ZERO RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH BROAD HIGH
PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. A STRONG E-W
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ AND HAS
RESULTED IN WIND GUSTS TODAY UP TO 30-40 MPH ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ. SEVERAL DUST CHANNELS DEVELOPED AND WERE VISIBLE
ON SATELLITE ACROSS PINAL COUNTY AROUND MIDDAY. MAGNITUDE OF WIND
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS AND A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ, TOPPING OUT AROUND 97-102 DEGREES.
WEATHER CONDITIONS HEADING INTO MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY WITH BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
PERSISTS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS AGAIN
AROUND 97-102 DEGREES. EASTERLY WIND GUSTS DURING THE MONDAY ARE
FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 25-35 MPH IN THE MORNING AND THEN WEAKEN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY
RELAXES WITH LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURE TO THE EAST. BY TUESDAY,
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WHICH IS CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE CA COAST, WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INLAND THROUGH NV AND UT AND DISLODGE THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WHILE ALSO SHIFTING MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM
E-SE TO W-NW. DESPITE THESE CHANGES ALOFT, THERE WILL NOT BE ANY
NOTABLE IMMEDIATE CHANGES AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL REMAIN NEARLY UNCHANGED AT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS AROUND 97-103 DEGREES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL AT LEAST RELAX FURTHER INTO TUESDAY. THERE
MAY STILL BE SOME MORNING EASTERLY BREEZES, BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL
BE MUCH LIGHTER TUESDAY ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE START OF THE WORKWEEK WITH NO RAIN
EXPECTED
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BY WEDNESDAY, A QUASI-OMEGA BLOCK IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP WITH AN
ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING NEAR/OVER THE SOCAL COAST. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REMAINING
FAIRLY STEADY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
95-100 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS AND RANGING FROM THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. MEANWHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HEAT UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND
SOUTHWEST AZ WITH A STRENGTHENING OF THE NEARBY ANTICYCLONE.
LATEST NBM FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE
100-106 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS IN SE CA AND SW AZ
FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND NEAR DAILY RECORDS IN BOTH EL CENTRO,
CA AND YUMA, AZ BOTH DAYS. THESE TEMPERATURES ALSO WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO MAJOR HEATRISK FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH PROBABILITY OF
MAJOR HEATRISK AT 50-70%. AS A RESULT, AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE YUMA AREA AND IMPERIAL VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH NO CHANCES FOR RAIN, EXCEPT FOR NEAR THE
WHITE MTNS WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FOUR
CORNERS.
THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST IS THEN EXPECTED TO START TO WEAKEN
BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A TROUGH
MOVING INTO WESTERN CONUS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES CONSIDERABLY BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
START OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS LARGE WITH
THE TIMING OF THE HIGH WEAKENING AND MOVING OUT OF THE REGION AND
THE TROUGH MOVING IN. THE ENSEMBLES ALSO DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH
OF THE TROUGH FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. EITHER WAY TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE BACK TOWARD NORMAL BY THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY, DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY, BUT THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF TROUGHING DURING THE WEEKEND. RIGHT NOW BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO ARRIVE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN AZ.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1735Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE ROUND OF BREEZY CONDITIONS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS TODAY WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON, REACHING UPWARDS OF 25-30 KT AT TIMES, BUT WILL BE ON A
GRADUAL DOWNTREND THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT BEFORE GUSTS CLOSER TO 20-25 KT DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN LATE MONDAY MORNING. THESE ENHANCED WINDS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO GENERATE SOME LOFTED DUST, BUT SURFACE VIS REDUCTIONS
ARE NOT EXPECTED, THOUGH SLANTWISE CONCERNS MAY ARISE, ESPECIALLY
AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNSET. LLWS SHEAR MAY ALSO PRESENT SOME
OPERATIONAL CHALLENGES, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW TAF CRITERIA.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE FORECAST WINDOW.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE FAVORED OUT OF THE E/NE AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TILTING BACK TOWARD THE NNE AT KBLH AND NW
AT KIPL BY THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 8-15 MPH WITH
EARLY MORNING AND AFTERNOON GUSTS UP TO 20-35 MPH, AND LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH, TODAY MAINLY ACROSS SW AZ AND THE
EASTERN DISTRICT. WINDS WILL BE A TOUCH WEAKER MONDAY AND THEN
WINDS WILL RETURN TO THEIR MORE TYPICAL LIGHT DIURNAL TENDENCIES
ON TUESDAY WITH ONLY MINOR AFTERNOON UPSLOPE GUSTINESS. THESE
LIGHTER WINDS MAY ONLY LAST A COUPLE DAYS BEFORE GUSTY EASTERLY
GRADIENT WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN BY FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES, INTO THE 101-106 DEGREE RANGE IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MINRHS WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM 15-25% ACROSS THE WESTERN
DISTRICTS TO 20-35% ACROSS EASTERN DISTRICTS WITH FAIR TO GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY (35-60%) AREA-WIDE. NO WETTING RAIN EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR AZZ532.
CA...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ566-567.
SHORT TERM...BENEDICT
LONG TERM...BENEDICT/BERISLAVICH
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...BENEDICT/BERISLAVICH
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