441
FXUS65 KPSR 110916
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
216 AM MST SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO NEVADA. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH A DRIER AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN SETTLING INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE REMNANTS OF TC RACHEL ARE QUICKLY LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL DIMINISHING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE MUCH OF THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH A BROKEN LINE
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN PIMA AND MARICOPA COUNTIES DRIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50-55 MPH ACROSS IMPERIAL AND YUMA
COUNTIES SINCE MIDNIGHT. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH SHOULD BE QUITE
COMMON THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA. THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LATER THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS OF
35-45 MPH DEVELOPING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FOCUS MORE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN DRIVEN BY
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL
WILL BE COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE PACIFIC TROUGH AND BROAD
UPPER LEVEL ASCENT GOING INTO MONDAY. A BREAK IN THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH ONLY WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. MONDAY SHOULD BE MUCH OF THE SAME WITH UPSLOPE FORCING
WAINING AND DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE. WE EXPECT SOME OCCASIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY, BUT OVERALL NOT
MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR MOST AREAS.
RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE AGAIN GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE CLIPPING OUR AREA AS IT
TRACKS TO THE NORTHEAST, AS WELL AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. HI-RES CAMS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INTO ARIZONA MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN THAT MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH LOWER DESERT AREAS MOSTLY
LESS THAN 0.10" TO AT MOST 0.25-0.50" OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST LIKELY BRINGS SOME GOOD NEWS WITH A
SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR MASS SETTLING IN OVER THE REGION.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BARELY BUDGE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
ONLY REACHING INTO THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE WESTERN DESERTS TO
AROUND 85 DEGREES IN THE PHOENIX AREA. FURTHER COOLING IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO THE LOWER
80S, EVEN BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE PACIFIC LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH
ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOST OF THE ENERGY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL DRY AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME WITH PWATS DROPPING TO 75% OF
NORMAL AND SKIES CLEARING OUT LATER ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL DIP FURTHER WITH NBM FORECAST
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 70S TUESDAY, OR 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO FALL WELL INTO THE 50S FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA TO AS COOL AS
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR RURAL LOWER DESERT AND HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN WITH THE EVENTUAL
PLACEMENT OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A LIKELY LINGERING
TROUGH AXIS AND/OR CUT-OFF LOW THAT SHOULD FORM LATE WEEK. NO
MATTER THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION, OUR WEATHER WILL BASICALLY STAY THE
SAME WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING
INTO THE 80S, BUT LIKELY STAYING BELOW NORMAL. WE MAY END UP
HAVING ANOTHER BACK-DOOR COOL FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AND THIS SHOULD EITHER MAINTAIN OR COOL
OFF TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE SHOULD ALSO HAVE
ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY NEXT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0615Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE FIRST BAND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 09-11Z AND THE SECOND BAND BETWEEN 14-16Z.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED AS LOW AS 5 KFT, WITH FEW-SCT CLOUD BASES AS LOW
AS 3 KFT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO REDUCE
VIS DOWN TO 2-4 SM. AFTER RAIN ENDS TOMORROW MORNING DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THEN, THE
HIGH WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL
FAVOR THE E/SE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY
BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING/TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
START TOMORROW MID-TO-LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KT
EXPECTED. THIS COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF LOFTED/BLOWING DUST CAUSING
REDUCED VIS. WIND GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET, RETURNING TO
8-12 KT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
THERE WILL BE LINGERING VCSH/-TSRA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT
BOTH TERMINALS. CIGS WILL BE AS LOW AS 5 KFT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, OTHERWISE THEY WILL BE AOA 10 KFT. WIND DIRECTIONS AT
KIPL WILL FAVOR THE NE OVERNIGHT BEFORE GOING SW EARLY IN THE
MORNING THEN WESTERLY TOMORROW EVENING. AT KBLH, CURRENT NNE WINDS
WILL GO SOUTHERLY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THEN MORE SW'RLY TOMORROW
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 8-12 KT,
WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 20S POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THEN WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING
WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT EXPECTED WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35-40
KT POSSIBLE AT TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD LIKELY LEAD
TO BLDU AND REDUCED VIS. WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN RETURN TO 8-13 KT
IN THE EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK
WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL AFFECTING THE AREA
TODAY FOLLOWED BY TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT THE AREA TODAY
WITH LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. MORE SCATTERED
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A FOCUS OVER THE ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN.
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN VERY ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MINRH
VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 40-60%, WHILE TEMPERATURES FALL TO WELL
BELOW NORMAL. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE BACK INTO THE
REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING
BY WEDNESDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ530>533-535-536.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR AZZ534-537>563.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR CAZ560>570.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ560-561-568.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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