753
FXUS65 KPSR 120202
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
702 PM MST SUN OCT 11 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS, STRONGEST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
- TEMPERATURES COOL THROUGH THE START OF THE WORKWEEK WITH BELOW
NORMAL READING ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- DRIER AND QUIETER WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TC RACHEL IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE ON
SATELLITE, HAVING SHEARED APART AND FUSED WITH THE LARGE-SCALE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST. HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP ACROSS AZ, FEEDING OFF ELEVATED SURFACE MOISTURE (DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S) AND MODEST UPSLOPE ASCENT. A
LOT OF DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN ALOFT, ESPECIALLY ABOVE 700MB, WHICH
IS CHOKING THE UPDRAFTS AND, OVERALL, SHOWERS ARE NOTABLY LESS
INTENSE THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE
HAS NOT BEEN MUCH IN THE WAY LIGHTNING EITHER. THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FAST-MOVING SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO FAVOR TERRAIN AREAS OF
AZ, MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX, AND ALONG A SSW-NNE ORIENTED
BAND MOSTLY BETWEEN PHOENIX AND QUARTZSITE. THE THREAT FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALL BUT OVER. WITH THE FAST-MOVING
SHOWERS AND LOWER INTENSITY, IT WILL BE TOUGH TO ACCUMULATE ENOUGH
RAINFALL TO LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER, TRAINING OF CELLS
OVER THE SAME AREAS MAY STILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED IMPACTS. LATEST
REFS & HREF SHOW THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IMPACTS THROUGH
THIS EVENING BEING IN YAVAPAI COUNTY, ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND OF
CONTINUOUS RAIN SHOWERS. AREAS LIKE WICKENBURG HAVE AROUND A
10-20% CHANCE TO PICK UP OVER 1" OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO THE LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS
HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS THE REGION, ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SURFACE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOSTLY
BEEN HITTING 35-45 MPH. ANY SHOWER, EVEN WEAK ONES, WILL BE
CAPABLE OF MIXING DOWN STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO THE SURFACE. THE
GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE BLOWING DUST
AND HAZY SKIES IN SOME AREAS. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THE GUSTINESS SHOULD RELAX THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. IT WILL BE GUSTY AGAIN MONDAY,
ACROSS MAINLY AZ, BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 10-15
KTS LOWER THAN TODAY.
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND AN OCCASIONAL RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, WITH A PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW, ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE HEATING. BUT AGAIN, THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES AND COVERAGE LOOK TO FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF AZ AND
IN PARTICULAR ACROSS YAVAPAI COUNTY. STEERING WINDS WILL STILL BE
VERY FAST MONDAY, WITH 700-500MB WINDS AROUND 30-60KTS, WHICH
WILL LIMIT RAINFALL TOTALS. THE REFS PROBABILITY FOR RAINFALL
MONDAY >0.25" IS <20% SOUTH OF I-10 TO AROUND 30-50% ALONG THE
SOUTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY BORDER. RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE
AGAIN GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY MORNING AS GUIDANCE SHOWS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WITHIN THE LARGER WESTERN CONUS TROUGH,
CLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ALSO SHOWN TO MOVE
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH MAY HELP FOCUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS INTO A SCATTERED LINE/BAND. ONCE AGAIN, FAST
STEERING FLOW AND OVERALL LOW INTENSITY SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT TO MOSTLY UNDER
0.25" ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH THE START OF
THE WEEK, WHICH IS WELCOME NEWS TO JUST ABOUT EVERYONE THAT
GRINDED IT OUT THROUGH ANOTHER HOT SUMMER+. HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CA TODAY WILL MOSTLY STAY BELOW 80 DEGREES WHILE AZ LOCATIONS
HAVE ALREADY WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE 80S. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN
FORECAST TO COOL SEVERAL DEGREES INTO MONDAY, DROPPING ~5-8
DEGREES WITH THE LOWS AND ~2-5 DEGREES WITH THE HIGHS. THIS
COOLING INTO MONDAY WILL BE AHEAD OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT MONDAY
NIGHT. SO, FURTHER COOLING IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THE PACIFIC LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN UTAH
ON TUESDAY BEFORE MOST OF THE ENERGY EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL DRY AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THIS TIME WITH PWATS DROPPING TO 75% OF
NORMAL AND SKIES CLEARING OUT LATER ON TUESDAY. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL DIP FURTHER WITH NBM FORECAST
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 70S TUESDAY, OR 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO FALL WELL INTO THE 50S FOR THE BULK OF THE AREA TO AS COOL AS
THE MID TO UPPER 40S FOR RURAL LOWER DESERT AND HIGHER TERRAIN
LOCATIONS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN WITH THE EVENTUAL
PLACEMENT OF THE INCOMING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A LIKELY LINGERING
TROUGH AXIS AND/OR CUT-OFF LOW THAT SHOULD FORM LATE WEEK. NO
MATTER THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION, OUR WEATHER WILL BASICALLY STAY THE
SAME WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING
INTO THE 80S, BUT LIKELY STAYING BELOW NORMAL. WE MAY END UP
HAVING ANOTHER BACK-DOOR COOL FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
EAST BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AND THIS SHOULD EITHER MAINTAIN OR COOL
OFF TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS WITH ANY BACKDOOR
FRONT, GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO FOLLOW AS WELL AND WITH
THE POTENTIAL CUTOFF LOW IN THE AREA, EASTERLY WINDS IN THIS CASE
MAY BECOME QUITE STRONG. GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALREADY SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY STRONG, ADVISORY LEVEL OR HIGHER, WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0200Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
GUSTY CROSS RUNWAY WINDS AND VCSH WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION
CONCERNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIND GUSTS ARE TAPERING OFF THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD STOP BY 02-03Z. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT (8-13 KT). CURRENT WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL SLOWLY GO SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT, AND MAY HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT THAN USUAL. BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AND START GUSTING UP
AROUND 20 KT. BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON (20-21Z) WINDS WILL GO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNSET. MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS SHUT OFF WITHIN THE PHX METRO THIS
EVENING, BUT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR/JUST NORTH OF
KDVT. THOSE SHOULD BE MOVING FURTHER NORTH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
(03Z). DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE MORE VCSH DEVELOPS AROUND 20-21Z. PERIODIC SHOWERS,
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS WILL REMAIN AOA 7
KFT THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH FEW-SCT DECKS AS
LOW AS 4-5 KFT. CIGS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT FEW-
SCT CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 4-7 KFT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THIS TAF
PACKAGE. WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE OUT OF THE WEST AT KIPL AND
OUT OF THE SW AT KBLH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS WILL END BY
02-03Z WITH WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED (8-13 KT) OVERNIGHT. WINDS
WILL THEN START GUSTING AGAIN BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING/EARLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (18-19Z). WIND GUSTS WILL BE LESS TOMORROW BUT
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ARE STILL EXPECTED. FEW-SCT MIDLEVEL DECKS WILL
BE COMMON THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY AZ THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST NOW/THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-45
MPH FROM THE S-SW. GUSTINESS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND THEN
PICK BACK UP DURING THE DAY MONDAY, BUT WITH MAGNITUDES AROUND
10-15 MPH LOWER. WINDS WILL THEN BE LIGHTEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT WIND WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO SOME GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS THEN LOOK TO BECOME STRONGER AREA-WIDE
THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH A STRONG E-W
GRADIENT POTENTIALLY SETTING UP. DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOP THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY AND LIKELY STAY DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH MINRH VALUES MOSTLY BETWEEN 40-60% THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO
THEN 25-40% BY THURSDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BENEDICT
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN/BENEDICT
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH
FIRE WEATHER...BENEDICT
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