836
FXUS65 KPSR 141752
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1052 AM MST WED OCT 14 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL STARTING THURSDAY.
- LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN DESERTS
STARTING THURSDAY BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA BY FRIDAY.
- WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARIZONA INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY WITH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MILES PER HOUR EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT PERIODS OF SHOWERS OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS FINALLY EXITING THE REGION TO THE NORTHEAST
LEAVING BEHIND DRYING CONDITIONS. A FAIRLY COOL AIR MASS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY, EVEN AS HEIGHTS ALOFT SLOWLY RISE, KEEPING
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA LOWER
DESERTS TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA
AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TOWARD WINDY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS
UP BETWEEN A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND A
RIDGE MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. NORTHERLY BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL FIRST DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY TODAY BEFORE
STRENGTHENING FURTHER ON THURSDAY. THE RISING HEIGHTS TODAY INTO
THURSDAY WILL ALSO PUSH TEMPERATURES HIGHER FOR THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARIZONA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING H8 WINDS
OF 30-45 KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE BEST
CORRIDOR FOR STRONG WINDS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND THROUGH PINAL, SOUTHERN MARICOPA,
AND YUMA COUNTIES. OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS OF 25-40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE IN THIS AREA BEFORE INCREASING TO ADVISORY
LEVEL AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH AT TIMES. THE PEAK OF THE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR MID TO LATE
MORNING FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE. AREAS TO THE
NORTH, INCLUDING PHOENIX, SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL BUT
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
MORNING FRIDAY. PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ON
FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PINAL COUNTY. WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY
DROP OFF SOME FOR MOST AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY,
BUT ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH
THE REST OF FRIDAY AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF PHOENIX.
WINDS SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA, BUT ANY ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LIMITED SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. ASIDE FROM THE
WIND CONCERN, GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME LOWER END SHOWER
POTENTIAL LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THE
CUT-OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST STARTING FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SOME
HIGH-BASED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BECOME POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LITTLE IF ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THESE LOW-END (10-20%) LIGHT
SHOWER CHANCES MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE CUT-OFF
LOW BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK THROUGH OUR REGION, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LIKELY TO BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKING OVER AND OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTER A BRIEF DIP IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, DAYTIME
HIGHS SHOULD TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING
OUT EVEN FURTHER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER DEEP
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
POTENTIALLY REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES AND
ANOTHER COOL DOWN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1015Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL TRANSITION TO A WNW COMPONENT GOING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS
SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT (AOB 8 KTS). LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL
AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE ENE WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE W TO NW AT
KIPL AND N TO NW AT KBLH AS SPEEDS REMAIN MOSTLY AOB 8 KTS.
NORTHERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KBLH THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE RELAXING BY THIS EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWERING HUMIDITIES. MINRHS WILL
DROP TO 20-25% ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS TODAY TO 30-45% FOR
THE EASTERN DISTRICTS BEFORE LOWERING TO 20-35% AREAWIDE
THURSDAY. NORTHERLY BREEZY WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST CA AND
SOUTHWEST AZ TODAY BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND ADVISORY LEVEL
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE EASTERN DISTRICTS WILL KEEP OVERALL
LIGHT WINDS TODAY BEFORE WINDY CONDITIONS SETTLE IN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. SOME MOISTURE RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING
LOW-END RAIN CHANCES, BUT WETTING RAINS CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 10%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ531-532-536-
538-539-554-559.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ552-
553-555-558-560>562.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 AM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ530.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ564-565-569-
570.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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