447
FXUS65 KPSR 150530
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 PM MST WED OCT 14 2026
UPDATE
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL STARTING
THURSDAY.
- LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN DESERTS
STARTING THURSDAY BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARIZONA INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY WITH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MILES PER HOUR EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SKIES HAVE CLEARED AFTER DAYS OF CLOUDS AND RAIN AND THIS MORNING
WAS THE COLDEST SINCE MARCH. LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WERE IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS WHICH IS AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THE TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER THANKS TO A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH
NORTHERN AZ OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW IS NO LEAVING THE AREA AND MOVING
THROUGH CO THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON,
UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES, WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ LOWER DESERTS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN SOUTHWEST AZ AND
SOUTHEAST CA.
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW AND RISING H5 HEIGHTS,
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES HEADING INTO TOMORROW. THE
MORNING WILL STILL BE COOL IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES, THANKS
IN PART TO THE CLEAR SKIES, BUT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. THERE IS
EVEN A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) PHOENIX REACHES 90 DEGREES. AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR MID-OCTOBER IS STILL AROUND 90 DEGREES.
WIND WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST STARTING TOMORROW
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE
TO STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH AND
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ALSO SPREADING INTO THE GREAT BASIN IN
THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WILL ACTUALLY HELP
INDUCE A WEAK CUTOFF LOW JUST TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW. INITIALLY TOMORROW THE
GREATEST SURFACE PRESSURE RISES WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST WITH A
1040MB HIGH CENTERED IN MT AND WY, WHICH WILL INDUCE BREEZY
NORTHERLIES AND NORTHEASTERLIES ACROSS THE AREA. STRONGEST BREEZES
(25-35 MPH) TOMORROW WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN AZ AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA, INCLUDING THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY. THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER AND THE
ORIENTATION WILL SHIFT MORE E-W HEADING INTO FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARIZONA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING H8 WINDS
OF 30-45 KTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND MUCH OF CENTRAL ARIZONA. LATEST
NAEFS AND ENS SHOW H8 WINDS REACHING NEAR RECORD MAGNITUDES
COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY. THE BEST CORRIDOR FOR STRONG WINDS LOOKS
TO BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND
THROUGH PINAL, SOUTHERN MARICOPA, AND YUMA COUNTIES. OCCASIONAL
GUSTY WINDS OF 25-40 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE IN THIS AREA
BEFORE INCREASING TO ADVISORY LEVEL AROUND OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY MORNING. WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS FOR FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AT TIMES. THE PEAK OF THE WINDS
SHOULD OCCUR MID TO LATE MORNING FRIDAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
50-55 MPH POSSIBLE. AREAS TO THE NORTH, INCLUDING PHOENIX, SHOULD
STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL BUT GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE LIKELY
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE MORNING FRIDAY. PATCHY BLOWING DUST
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ON FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS PINAL
COUNTY. WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DROP OFF SOME FOR MOST AREAS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY, BUT ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF FRIDAY AND
EVEN INTO SATURDAY ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF PHOENIX.
WINDS SATURDAY WILL AGAIN BE ELEVATED WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA, BUT ANY ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LIMITED SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. ASIDE FROM THE
WIND CONCERN, GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME LOWER END SHOWER
POTENTIAL LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THE
CUT-OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST STARTING FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT
A GOOD AMOUNT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SOME
HIGH-BASED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BECOME POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LITTLE IF ANY
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THESE LOW-END (10-20%) LIGHT
SHOWER CHANCES MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE CUT-OFF
LOW BEGINS TO DRIFT BACK THROUGH OUR REGION, BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.
EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LIKELY TO BE A TRANSITION PERIOD WITH WEAK
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BRIEFLY TAKING OVER AND OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS. AFTER A BRIEF DIP IN TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, DAYTIME
HIGHS SHOULD TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOOKING
OUT EVEN FURTHER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER DEEP
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
POTENTIALLY REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES AND
ANOTHER COOL DOWN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0530Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VRB
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, EASTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
ESTABLISHED BY LATE MORNING, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
SOON THEREAFTER WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT, AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WINDOW. SPEEDS WILL RELAX
SLIGHTLY BY EVENING, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZINESS MAY DEVELOP
BY THE END OF THE TAFS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING THAT IS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT KIPL AND KBLH RESPECTIVELY. BY
THE LATE MORNING HOURS, FLOW AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL SWITCH OUT OF
THE N/NNE AND BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT, THOUGH SOME
SPORADIC HIGHER GUSTS CLOSER TO 25 KT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING.
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWERING HUMIDITIES. MINRHS WILL
DROP TO 20-25% ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS TODAY TO 30-45% FOR
THE EASTERN DISTRICTS BEFORE LOWERING TO 20-35% AREAWIDE
TOMORROW. NORTHERLY BREEZY WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST CA AND
SOUTHWEST AZ TODAY BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND ADVISORY LEVEL
TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY. THE EASTERN DISTRICTS WILL KEEP OVERALL
LIGHT WINDS TODAY BEFORE WINDY CONDITIONS SETTLE IN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY. SOME MOISTURE RETURN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING LOW-
END RAIN CHANCES, BUT WETTING RAINS CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
10%.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM MST THURSDAY FOR AZZ530.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ531-532-536-
538-539-554-559.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ552-
553-555-558-560>562.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ530.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ564-565-569-
570.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ564-565-569-
570.
SHORT TERM...BENEDICT
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN/BENEDICT
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