579
FXUS65 KPSR 150856
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
156 AM MST THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL STARTING
TODAY.
- LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE WESTERN DESERTS
STARTING TODAY BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARIZONA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARIZONA INTO THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY WITH WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MILES PER HOUR EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLIER THIS WEEK IS NOW CURRENTLY
CENTERED OVER COLORADO, AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS.
MEANWHILE, TO THE WEST, HIGH PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD,
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND H5 HEIGHTS FORECASTED TO REACH BETWEEN
582-585 DAM TODAY. THIS WILL SWING AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES UP
TO 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS, WITH A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF
PHOENIX REACHING 90 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES, WHILE HIGHER THAN
EARLIER THIS WEEK, ARE STILL RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON THE OTHER HAND WILL LAG BEHIND WITH TODAY'S
LOW EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BY
FRIDAY MORNING THE LOWS WILL RESPOND TO THE BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE, WITH FORECASTED LOWS IN THE UPPER 60 TO LOW 70S, OR NEAR
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING WINDS STARTING TODAY AND
LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE TO THE REGION'S NORTH. IN
ADDITION TO THE BUILDING HIGH, A CUT OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT TO THE REGION'S SW OVER THE NORTHER BAJA PENINSULA.
THE STRONGEST BREEZES DURING THE DAY WILL BE BETWEEN 25-35 MPH AND
FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN AZ AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA,
INCLUDING THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. BY LATE TONIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THESES AREAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 35-45 MPH,
IN RESPONSE A WIND ADVISORY WILL BEGIN AND LAST THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THE GRADIENT WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONGER AND THE ORIENTATION WILL SHIFT MORE E-W, THEREFORE
EXPANDING THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE, SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY AND THROUGH PINAL, SOUTHERN MARICOPA, AND
YUMA COUNTIES. THESE AREAS WILL ALSO BE THE BEST CORRIDOR FOR
STRONG WINDS, WHERE GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE PEAK WINDS LATE FRIDAY MORNING POTENTIALLY REACHING NEAR 50-55
MPH. DURING PEAK GUSTS THESE SAME AREAS WILL BE PRONE TO BLOWING
DUST, ESPECIALLY IN PINAL COUNTY.ADDITIONALLY, WHILE NOT INCLUDED
IN THE WIND ADVISORIES, AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE ADVISED AREAS CAN
STILL EXPECT WINDS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGHOUT
SATURDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-35 IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECT IN YUMA COUNTY
AND SOUTHERN LA PAZ COUNTY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT CURRENTLY
ALLOWING THE EARLIER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE BEFORE REISSUING TO AVOID
CONFUSION.
ASIDE FROM THE WIND CONCERN, GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SOME LOWER
END SHOWER POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND. THE PLACEMENT OF THE CUT-
OFF LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST STARTING FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT A
DECENT MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SOME HIGH-BASED
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BECOME POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING WITH BEST CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE CUT-OFF LOW WEAKENS AND MIGRATES OVER THE REGION. UNFORTUNATELY,
LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, AS MOST LOCATIONS
WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ANYTHING MORE THAN A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH WILL BE AROUND A 5F-6F
DECREASE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY, SO EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOW 80S ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDING WILL EFFECT THE
REGION, RESUMING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOOKING OUT EVEN
FURTHER, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT ANOTHER DEEP PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
POTENTIALLY REACHING OUR REGION DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE RAIN CHANCES AND
ANOTHER COOL DOWN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0530Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VRB
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, EASTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
ESTABLISHED BY LATE MORNING, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
SOON THEREAFTER WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT, AND REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WINDOW. SPEEDS WILL RELAX
SLIGHTLY BY EVENING, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF BREEZINESS MAY DEVELOP
BY THE END OF THE TAFS, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REGARDING THAT IS LOW
AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT KIPL AND KBLH RESPECTIVELY. BY
THE LATE MORNING HOURS, FLOW AT BOTH TERMINALS WILL SWITCH OUT OF
THE N/NNE AND BECOME BREEZY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT, THOUGH SOME
SPORADIC HIGHER GUSTS CLOSER TO 25 KT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING.
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWERING HUMIDITIES. MINRHS WILL
BE BETWEEN 15-25% ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS AND 20-35% FOR THE
EASTERN DISTRICTS. NORTHERLY BREEZY WINDS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST
CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ TODAY BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND ADVISORY
LEVEL LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. THE EASTERN DISTRICTS WILL
KEEP OVERALL LIGHT WINDS FOR MOST OF TODAY BEFORE WINDY
CONDITIONS SETTLE IN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EASTERLY WIND GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 40-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. SOME MOISTURE RETURN
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING LOW- END RAIN CHANCES, BUT WETTING
RAINS CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10%. MINRH'S ARE EXPECTED TO
THEN INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25-35% AREAWIDE BY SUNDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ... WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ552-
553-555-558-560>562.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
AZZ530.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ531-532-536-
538-539-554-559.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR
CAZ564-565-569-570.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RYAN/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/BENEDICT
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