716
FXUS65 KPSR 160530
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1030 PM MST THU OCT 15 2026
UPDATE
06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, WITH BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS FORECAST PEAK WIND GUSTS REACH
UP TO 40-55 MPH.
- STRONG WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOFTED
DUST, LEADING TO HAZY CONDITIONS, AND LOCALIZED DUST CHANNELS
OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE.
- DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS,
THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND.
- A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BRING REGIONAL RAIN CHANCES,
BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY CONDITIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
SYNOPTICALLY A BLOCKING PATTERN IS DEVELOPING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING SPREADING INTO THE NORTHWEST CONUS AND A DEVELOPING WEAK
CUTOFF LOW SOUTH OF IT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. DESPITE THE DEVELOPING
CUTOFF LOW, H5 HEIGHTS HAVE RISEN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED 5-10 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ AND
SOUTHEAST CA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND THERE IS AROUND A 60-70% CHANCE OF
REACHING 90 DEGREES IN PHOENIX. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN DESERTS WHERE IT WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER, REACHING THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES THEN
COOL DOWN AGAIN FOR SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, POSSIBLY
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA, AND COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE EAST.
THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE
WIND AND PERHAPS A LOT OF LOFTED DUST AS A RESULT. THIS MAY BE ONE
OF THE THE STRONGEST EASTERLY GRADIENT WIND EVENTS OF THE LAST
DECADE. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT MIDDAY TODAY SHOWED A STRONG
1040-1042MB HIGH CENTERED OVER MONTANA, WHICH IS NEAR RECORD
STRENGTH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA IS LEADING TO BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN AZ AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST CA THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
GUSTS WERE CONSISTENTLY REACHING 35-40 MPH ACROSS THESE AREAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH SPREADS FURTHER
INTO THE PLAINS AND SOUTH ALONG THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND AS A
RESULT SO WILL THE WINDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL BACKDOOR INTO SOUTHERN AZ TONIGHT/TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 850MB LLJ WINDS REACHING 40-50
KTS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, AND EVEN UPWARDS
OF 60 KTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST AZ. WHILE THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO FULLY MIX TO THE SURFACE, THE STRONG GRADIENT WILL STILL LEAD
TO WIDESPREAD 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED AND 30-40 MPH WIND GUSTS. HIGHER
PEAK WIND GUSTS UP TO 45-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY UP TO
55 MPH OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS, BUT THE WINDOW FOR THESE STRONGER
GUSTS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE MORNING TOMORROW AND AGAIN SATURDAY
MORNING. WINDS THIS STRONG WILL SURELY KICK UP A LOT OF DUST AND
CREATE HAZY CONDITIONS, AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME DUST CHANNELS
DEVELOPING, WITH REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES TO UNDER 1 MILE AT
TIMES, DEPENDING ON LAND USE.
WIND ADVISORIES WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THIS WIND EVENT,
STARTING INITIALLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST CA AND ALONG THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WITH 35-45 MPH NORTHERLY WINDS.
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ ARE THEN ADDED TO THE ADVISORY
TOMORROW MORNING. THE DECISION WAS MADE TO ADD THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA TO THE ADVISORY FOR A PERIOD FROM 8 AM - 3 PM MST. DURING
THIS PERIOD, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 30-35 KT (35-40
MPH) TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THE ADVISORY FOR PINAL AND
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, AS
THE EASTERLY LLJ RESTRENGTHENS OVERNIGHT, AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST AZ WILL LIKELY BE RE-ADDED THE ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY
MORNING AS WELL.
AS MENTIONED THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS SATURDAY, AS
MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTH INTO THE AREA BY THE WEAK CUTOFF LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST. VERTICAL CROSS-SECTIONS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
THIS MOISTURE WILL MOSTLY BE FOCUSED ALOFT BETWEEN 700-300MB WITH
A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. STILL, SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THICK CLOUDS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AND VIRGA BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY AND
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS A
WING OF VORTICITY OR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
SATURDAY, WITH AN ENHANCEMENT TO THE UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE DECENT ASCENT OVER SOUTHERN AZ AND FURTHER SUPPORT AT
LEAST LIGHT SHOWER/VIRGA ACTIVITY. NBM POPS SATURDAY ARE ONLY
AROUND 10-20% ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ (30% EAST OF PHOENIX) AND
QPF IS VERY LIGHT WITH NBM 75TH PERCENTILE ONLY SHOWING 0.01" FOR
PHOENIX TO 0.10" FOR SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ WILL WEAKEN HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS THE STRONG
SURFACE HIGH IN THE PLAINS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME EASTERLY BREEZINESS, BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE
MAGNITUDE OF FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
ALSO SHIFT, WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS SLIDING EAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND THE CUTOFF LOW WILL ALSO WEAKEN INTO AN
OPEN WAVE AND LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY-MONDAY, DOWNSTREAM OF
THE NEXT FALL TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE WEST COAST.
LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF AZ, MAINLY
EAST AND SOUTHEAST AZ, SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK
DOWNSTREAM OF THE LINGERING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT DRIER AIR IS
SHOWN TO MOVE IN ALOFT PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT COASTAL
TROUGH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SUNDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE LATEST NBM SHOWING HIGHS RETURNING BACK CLOSE TO
NORMAL BY MONDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
DECREASES AS MODEL SPREAD INCREASES CONSIDERABLY. MOST NOTABLY
THERE IS A LOT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OUT WHEN THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND, HOW QUICKLY, AND HOW DEEP THE
TROUGH WILL BE. TYPICALLY MODELS WILL TREND TOWARD THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS WITH THESE COASTAL LOWS. SO, SOMETHING MOVING THROUGH
LATE WEEK IS THE CURRENT THINKING. THIS NEXT COASTAL TROUGH WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN, BREEZY WINDS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT
TO WHAT MAGNITUDE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 0530Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LOFTED DUST LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME, NE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SPORADIC GUSTS, THOUGH EXACT TIMING OF THESE GUSTS
REMAINS LOW. REGARDLESS, SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
ELEVATED COMPARED TO WHAT IS TYPICAL, AND MUCH STRONGER WINDS JUST
ABOVE THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED LLWS. THE STRONGEST
GUSTS DURING THE FORECAST WINDOW LOOK LIKELY TO OCCUR FRIDAY
MORNING, SOMETIME BETWEEN 16-20Z, WITH OBSERVATIONS NEARING 30-35
KT. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AREAS OF BLDU
WHICH COULD RESULT IN INSTANCES OF SUB-VFR SURFACE VIS. WHETHER
OR NOT DUST IMPACTS ARE SEEN AT THE SURFACE, CONFIDENCE IS MUCH
GREATER IN LOFTED DUST RESULTING IN SLANTWISE VIS ISSUES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS SPREAD OVER
THE REGION AFTER SUNSET.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, SOME
SPORADIC GUSTS AROUND 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT KBLH. NW-NE FLOW WILL BE COMMON AT EACH TERMINAL
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE TILTING TOWARD THE NE/E BEYOND
THAT. FEW TO SOMETIMES SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DECKS MAY BE SEEN
TONIGHT, BUT MORE NOTICEABLE CLOUD COVER WILL MIGRATE OVER THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONALLY LOW HUMIDITIES. MINRHS
WILL BE BETWEEN 15-30% ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTH
AND NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES UP TO 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST CA AND ALONG THE LOWER CO
RIVER VALLEY, AS WELL AS IN THE MOUNTAINS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF
OF PHOENIX. WINDS TURN EASTERLY AND BECOME STRONGER TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER
MOUNTAIN TOPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW AND SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50-55 MPH. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL SPREAD MORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH. THESE STRONG EASTERLIES AND
20-25% RHS MAY STILL CREATE LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW, BUT FUELS ARE
NOT THE MOST RECEPTIVE AFTER RECENT RAINS. THE EASTERLY BREEZES
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND WILL
TREND DOWN FURTHER INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND, BUT THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN IS LOW (<10%). A PACIFIC
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING REGIONAL RAIN CHANCES, BREEZY WINDS,
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ... WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 11 AM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ547-
552-553-555-557-558-560>562.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ530.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 3 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ531>534-536-
538-539-554-559.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 3 PM MST FRIDAY FOR AZZ537-540>546-
548>551.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ564-565-568>570.
SHORT TERM...BENEDICT
LONG TERM...BENEDICT
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...BENEDICT
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