861
FXUS65 KPSR 161122
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
422 AM MST FRI OCT 16 2026
UPDATE...UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS FORECAST PEAK WIND GUSTS REACH UP TO
40-55 MPH.
- STRONG WINDS ON TODAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOFTED
DUST, LEADING TO HAZY CONDITIONS, AND LOCALIZED DUST CHANNELS
OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE.
- DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS,
THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND.
- A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BRING REGIONAL RAIN CHANCES,
BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MID-LEVEL WV IMAGERY AND RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW THE CUT OFF LOW
NOW DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA, WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER NW CONUS. THE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL
TODAY. THOUGH THE CORE OF THE RIDGE IS TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE, H5
HEIGHTS WILL STILL REACH BETWEEN 585-588 DAM OVER THE DESERT SW. AS
MENTIONED, NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN THE WESTERN LOWER
DESERTS AND ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHILE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ
WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL QUICKLY PASS AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY, ALLOWING
HEIGHTS ALOFT TO DAMPEN AND BE INFLUENCED BY THE LINGERING CUT OFF
LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN SATURDAY COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. THIS WILL ALSO BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE
AND ABOUT A 10-20% CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ AND THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS DUE TO A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS MAY BE ONE OF THE THE STRONGEST EASTERLY
GRADIENT WIND EVENTS OF THE LAST DECADE. WITH STRONG WINDS LOFTED
AND BLOWING DUST ALSO POSES A THREAT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS DUST PRONE
AREAS. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE SE CA AND
ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND ARE UNDER A WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 40-45 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MIGRATE FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES REGION AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
AND SHIFTING THE WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO OUT OF THE EAST. NEAR
SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPAND EASTWARDS INTO SW
AND SC ARIZONA, WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 45-50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE,
WHILE THE PHOENIX METRO WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35-
45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG ARE LIKELY TO PICK UP A GOOD AMOUNT OF
DUST, CREATING HAZY CONDITIONS, AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME DUST
CHANNELS DEVELOPING, WITH REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES TO UNDER 1 MILE
AT TIMES, DEPENDING ON LAND USE. MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE UNDER
ADVISORY LEVEL BY MID AFTERNOON TODAY, WHILE PINAL COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG GUSTS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS INTO LATE SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 55
MPH OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ WILL WEAKEN HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS THE STRONG
SURFACE HIGH IN THE PLAINS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
WINDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 IN
SC AZ, AND 30-35 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PAST SUNRISE THESE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO
QUICKLY SHIFT. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARDS, AND THE
CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE, LIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY- MONDAY. AS THE OPEN WAVE MOVES DRIFTS
THROUGH, LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA REMAIN IN THE FORECAST,
20-35% SUNDAY, THEN 10-20% MONDAY. THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, WHERE WITH ENOUGH EXTRA LIFT MAY BE POSSIBLE
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, IF ANY ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS, OR
NEAR ZERO. FOR THE LOWER DESERTS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A TROUGHING FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO DIVE
DOWN THE WESTERN COASTLINE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
SPREAD IN FOR TEMPERATURES BY MID NEXT WEEK. AS IT STANDS NOW TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY-TUESDAY THEN START
TO FALL 6-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1115Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD
WILL BE GUSTY TO AT TIMES STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND AREAS OF
LOFTED DUST CAUSING SLANTWISE VISIBILITY ISSUES. WINDS CURRENTLY
ARE ELEVATED BETWEEN 10-15 KTS WITH AREAS OF LLWS POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNRISE. THEREAFTER, GUSTS WILL PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER 15-16Z
IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS, WITH POTENTIAL PEAK GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35
KTS POSSIBLE SOMETIME BETWEEN THE 16-20Z TIMEFRAME. THE STRONG
WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF BLDU, WHICH COULD RESULT
IN TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES TO SUB-VFR CONDITIONS.
MUCH GREATER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN LOFTED DUST RESULTING IN
SLANTWISE VISIBILITY ISSUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION BY THE EVENING HOURS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN DURING THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH PERIODIC
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS, AT TIMES HIGHER, AT KBLH AND SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AT KIPL. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO
INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT KIPL AND BY THIS EVENING AT KBLH.
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONALLY LOW HUMIDITIES. MINRHS
WILL BE BETWEEN 15-30% ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL TURN EASTERLY OVER THE MORNING, BECOMING STRONGER TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER
MOUNTAIN TOPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW AND SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50-55 MPH. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL SPREAD MORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH. THESE STRONG EASTERLIES AND
20-25% RHS MAY STILL CREATE LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW, BUT FUELS ARE
NOT THE MOST RECEPTIVE AFTER RECENT RAINS. THE EASTERLY BREEZES
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND WILL
TREND DOWN FURTHER INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND, BUT THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN IS LOW (<10%). A PACIFIC
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING REGIONAL RAIN CHANCES, BREEZY WINDS,
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ547-552-553-555-
557-558-560>562.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ530.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ531>534-536-
538-539-554-559.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR AZZ537-540>546-548>551.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ564-565-
568>570.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...LOJERO/RW
FIRE WEATHER...BENEDICT/RYAN
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