324
FXUS65 KPSR 161805
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1105 AM MST FRI OCT 16 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS FORECAST PEAK WIND GUSTS REACH UP TO
40-55 MPH.
- STRONG WINDS ON TODAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOFTED
DUST, LEADING TO HAZY CONDITIONS, AND LOCALIZED DUST CHANNELS
OCCASIONALLY REDUCING VISIBILITY BELOW ONE MILE.
- DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS,
THEN SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND.
- A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING DOWN THE COAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BRING REGIONAL RAIN CHANCES,
BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MID-LEVEL WV IMAGERY AND RAP40 500MB ANALYSIS SHOW THE CUT OFF
LOW NOW DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER NW CONUS. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR TEMPERATURES
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL TODAY. THOUGH THE CORE OF THE RIDGE IS TO
THE NORTH OF THE STATE, H5 HEIGHTS WILL STILL REACH BETWEEN
585-588 DAM OVER THE DESERT SW. AS MENTIONED, NEAR NORMAL
AFTERNOON HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN THE WESTERN LOWER DESERTS AND ALONG THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY, WHILE SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY PASS
AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY, ALLOWING HEIGHTS ALOFT TO
DAMPEN AND BE INFLUENCED BY THE LINGERING CUT OFF LOW. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SATURDAY COOLING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THIS
WILL ALSO BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AND
ABOUT A 10-20% CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ AND THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE WINDS DUE TO A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS MAY BE ONE OF THE THE STRONGEST EASTERLY
GRADIENT WIND EVENTS OF THE LAST DECADE. WITH STRONG WINDS LOFTED
AND BLOWING DUST ALSO POSES A THREAT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS DUST PRONE
AREAS. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED IN THE SE CA
AND ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND ARE UNDER A WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHERE PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 40-45 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MIGRATE FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/SOUTHERN ROCKIES REGION AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND SHIFTING THE WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO
OUT OF THE EAST. NEAR SUNRISE THIS MORNING THE WIND ADVISORY WILL
EXPAND EASTWARDS INTO SW AND SC ARIZONA, WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 45-50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, WHILE THE PHOENIX METRO WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35- 45 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG ARE LIKELY
TO PICK UP A GOOD AMOUNT OF DUST, CREATING HAZY CONDITIONS, AND
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME DUST CHANNELS DEVELOPING, WITH REDUCTION
IN VISIBILITIES TO UNDER 1 MILE AT TIMES, DEPENDING ON LAND USE.
MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE UNDER ADVISORY LEVEL BY MID AFTERNOON
TODAY, WHILE PINAL COUNTY AND SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WILL CONTINUE
WITH STRONG GUSTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS INTO LATE SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH LOCALLY UP TO 55 MPH OVER MOUNTAIN PEAKS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT STRONG EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ WILL WEAKEN HEADING INTO SUNDAY AS THE STRONG
SURFACE HIGH IN THE PLAINS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
WINDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 IN
SC AZ, AND 30-35 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PAST SUNRISE THESE
WINDS WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO
QUICKLY SHIFT. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARDS, AND THE
CUTOFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND BECOME AN OPEN WAVE, LIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY- MONDAY. AS THE OPEN WAVE MOVES DRIFTS
THROUGH, LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS/VIRGA REMAIN IN THE FORECAST,
20-35% SUNDAY, THEN 10-20% MONDAY. THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS, WHERE WITH ENOUGH EXTRA LIFT MAY BE POSSIBLE
FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER, IF ANY ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS, OR
NEAR ZERO. FOR THE LOWER DESERTS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY A TROUGHING FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO
DIVE DOWN THE WESTERN COASTLINE, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE FEATURE. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A DECENT
AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES BY MID NEXT WEEK. AS IT STANDS
NOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MONDAY-
TUESDAY THEN START TO FALL 6-9 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATER
HALF OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1805Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
STRONG GUSTY E'RLY WINDS AND SLANTWISE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DUE
TO LOFTED DUST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. E'RLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST CONSISTENTLY UP TO 20-30 KTS, WITH
OCCASIONAL STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS, THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG GUSTINESS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS, BUT
ELEVATED SURFACE SPEEDS IN THE TEENS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST INTO THE 20S. GUSTS
TO 30 KTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSDL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALL
TERMINALS WILL SEE A RESURGENCE OF GUSTS UP TO 23-30 KTS SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT THEN WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SLANTWISE VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY MORNING. THICK MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECKS WILL SPREAD
INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN. NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BE COMMON THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD, WITH PERIODIC GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS (OCCASIONALLY
HIGHER) AT KBLH AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER AT KIPL. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AT KIPL AND BY THIS EVENING AT KBLH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR
INCLUSION IN THE TAF.
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONALLY LOW HUMIDITIES. MINRHS
WILL BE BETWEEN 15-30% ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL TURN EASTERLY OVER THE MORNING, BECOMING STRONGER TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN AZ. WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER
MOUNTAIN TOPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW AND SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50-55 MPH. STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL SPREAD MORE TO THE LOWER DESERTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS AND BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH. THESE STRONG EASTERLIES AND
20-25% RHS MAY STILL CREATE LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW, BUT FUELS ARE
NOT THE MOST RECEPTIVE AFTER RECENT RAINS. THE EASTERLY BREEZES
WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS STRONG DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND WILL
TREND DOWN FURTHER INTO SUNDAY. LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND, BUT THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN IS LOW (<10%). A PACIFIC
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING REGIONAL RAIN CHANCES, BREEZY WINDS,
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ531>534-
536>546-548>551-554-559.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY FOR AZZ547-552-553-555-
557-558-560>562.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ530.
CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ564-565-
568>570.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...RYAN
AVIATION...BENEDICT
FIRE WEATHER...BENEDICT/RYAN
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