052
FXUS65 KPSR 221803
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1103 AM MST THU OCT 22 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE, THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOCUSED MORE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PHOENIX
AREA.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA WITH A FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS.
- DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE IN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO
MORE BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE NORMAL RANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/
THE ENVIRONMENT AND ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AT
LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM THREAT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING LARGE
HAIL. ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FAIRLY LIMITED SINCE LAST EVENING, BUT
THERE WAS ONE LIKELY SEVERE STORM THAT FORMED OVER WESTERN
PHOENIX AND TRACKED ALL THE WAY THROUGH NEW RIVER AND ANOTHER
ACROSS FAR EASTERN GILA COUNTY.
THE CENTER OF THE STRONG PACIFIC LOW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD WHILE A LARGE
BAROCLINIC LEAF STRETCHES THROUGH ARIZONA INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA. THE CONTINUED MOIST ADVECTION OUT OF THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST
INTO ARIZONA HAS RAISED PWATS TO BETWEEN 1.3-1.5" OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL ARIZONA AND LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS TO 9-11 G/KG. SURFACE
DEW POINTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE PHOENIX AREA
TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. THIS RICH
MOISTURE EXTENDS VERTICALLY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID-LEVELS WHERE
LAPSE RATES REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR ANY STORMS THE MANAGE TO
DEVELOP. MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG AND MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AT
THE MOMENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS WITHIN THE HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT, BUT WE ARE
IN A BIT OF A LULL IN FORCING. STRONG UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FORCING
MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET A FEW STORMS GOING THROUGH SUNRISE, BUT THE
MODEST CIN SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVITY WIDELY ISOLATED.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH OUR REGION LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT/DRY LINE WILL LIKELY
BECOME A BETTER FOCUS MECHANISM FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS
SUNRISE. POOLING OF MOISTURE RIGHT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ALSO
RESULT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF EVEN HIGHER INSTABILITY WITH HREF
MUCAPES REACHING AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG FROM PHOENIX AND AREAS TO
THE EAST OF PHOENIX. CAMS ARE QUITE UNSURE OF THE COVERAGE LATER
THIS MORNING, BUT THEY AT LEAST SUGGEST SCATTERED STORMS
DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE OVER THE PHOENIX METRO AND/OR NORTHERN
MARICOPA COUNTY AROUND SUNRISE. ONCE THIS OCCURS, IT SHOULD PUT
THE NORTHERN HALF OF MARICOPA COUNTY WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST OF THE MORNING HOURS. SEVERE HAIL OF UP
TO 2" IN DIAMETER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS,
BUT WET MICROBURSTS WILL ALSO SUPPORT LOCALIZED SEVERE WINDS. THE
BEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR ANY BRIEF TORNADO SPIN-UPS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN NORTH OF THE PHOENIX AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING OVER EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY AROUND
NOON AND LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GIVEN THIS
POTENTIAL, WE ANTICIPATE ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO BE
ISSUED AT SOME POINT LATER THIS MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A QUICK 0.5-1"
OF RAINFALL AND WITH TRAINING OF CELLS BECOMING MORE LIKELY LATER
THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHERE TRAINING OF STORMS DOES
OCCUR, IT WOULD NOT BE VERY HARD FOR LOCALIZED 2" TO FALL. AS THE
FRONT PROGRESSES MORE INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA BY THIS
AFTERNOON, CAMS SUGGEST MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MAY MOVE EAST OF
PHOENIX BY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE MOSTLY ENDING EARLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA AS DRY AIR QUICKLY SURGES IN FROM
THE WEST.
BY EARLY TONIGHT, THE LOW CENTER IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO NEVADA
WITH A STRONG TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ARIZONA,
BUT THIS WILL BE WITHIN A MUCH DRIER POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. IT
MAY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN THIS EVENING, BUT THE CAMS GENERALLY SHOW
VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER OUR REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH EVEN ONE OR TWO DECENT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION, BUT LITTLE WILL RESULT FROM THEIR PASSAGE. ENOUGH DRY AIR
WILL HAVE ALREADY MOVED INTO THE AREA TO ESSENTIALLY PREVENT ANY
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS ON FRIDAY TO AT
MOST A 10-15% CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN ARIZONA HIGH TERRAIN. THE
COOLER AIR MASS SETTLING IN WILL ALSO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE TROUGH
SHOULD REMAIN OVER OUR REGION EVEN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND,
BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH OUR AIR MASS SLOWLY WARMING
OVER TIME. NBM FORECAST HIGHS FOR SUNDAY SHOW READINGS INTO THE
LOWER 80S OVER THE WESTERN LOWER DESERTS TO NEAR 80 DEGREES IN THE
PHOENIX AREA. BY MONDAY, THE TROUGH IS LIKELY TO FINALLY PUSH
EAST OF THE REGION WITH MODEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILING OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THE INCREASED HEIGHTS AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD PUSH DAYTIME HIGHS BACK INTO THE NORMAL RANGE
(MID 80S) GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1803Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LOWER CIGS AROUND 5-6 KFT. THESE LOWER CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR OVERNIGHT. VCSH REMAIN ONLY IN THE KSDL TAF THROUGH
19Z AS SHOWERS REMAIN TO THE NE OF THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE SHOWER AND STORM THREAT FOR TODAY
HAS SHIFTED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST OF THE PHOENIX
METRO. WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY EXHIBIT A WESTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP AROUND 20 KT
EXPECTED FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS
WILL THEN GO BACK SE'RLY OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
COMPONENT AT KBLH AND WESTERLY AT KIPL. GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WILL
BECOME COMMON AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH MID (KBLH) TO LATE (KIPL)
THIS EVENING. FEW TO SCT CLOUDS, MOSTLY AOA 7 KFT, WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN DISTRICTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
RAPID DRYING SPREADS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED MORE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX. MINRHS TODAY WILL AGAIN BE IN A
30-60% RANGE BEFORE DROPPING MORE INTO A 25-40% RANGE FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION. GUSTY WEST
WINDS UPWARDS OF 25-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN
DISTRICTS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT STARTING
TONIGHT. OVERALL QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH FAIRLY STABLE HUMIDITIES AND
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE NORMAL RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AZZ545-547-552-556>558-
560>563.
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ534-537-538-
540>544-546-548>551-553>555.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...BERISLAVICH
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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