383
FXUS65 KPSR 231735
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1035 AM MST FRI OCT 23 2026
UPDATE
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO SATURDAY WITH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ARIZONA HIGH
TERRAIN.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL WARM
CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER TO PORTIONS
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IS NOW
PROGRESSING FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTHEAST TO ALLOW FOR STRONG DRYING
THROUGH ARIZONA. THIS HAS LED TO AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
CLEARING SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A COOLER AIR MASS HAS ALSO
SETTLED INTO THE REGION AND WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT,
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE 50S FOR ALL OF THE LOWER
DESERTS EXCEPT FOR THE URBAN CORE OF PHOENIX.
EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA, THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW CENTER IS CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER
NEVADA WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE STILL SPINNING AROUND THE LOW.
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MAIN ENERGY WITHIN THE LOW STILL EJECTING TO
THE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR REGION TODAY, BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE OR
TWO IS EXPECTED TO SWING BACK INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD FORM ANOTHER LOW CENTER
SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TONIGHT BEFORE TURNING EAST
THROUGH ARIZONA ON SATURDAY, BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED TO COME FROM
ITS PASSAGE. THE LATEST CAMS ARE HINTING AS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN NORTH OF
PHOENIX, BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED OVERALL LOW MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT
(LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS OF 5-6 G/KG) RAIN CHANCES WILL
ESSENTIALLY BE ZERO OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. SATURDAY SHOULD BRING
SOME AFTERNOON MID-LEVEL CU FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA, BUT
OVERALL OUR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN PHOENIX TO AS WARM AS THE LOWER
80S IN SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH THE LINGERING TROUGH FINALLY MOVING OUT OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND BEING REPLACED BY WEAK RIDGING TO ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS, WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE NORMAL RANGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT THE BULK OF THE LOWER DESERTS TO HAVE DAILY HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 80S AND LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO
PLAY LATER NEXT WEEK AS THERE ARE HINTS AT SOME MOISTURE RETURN
INTO THE REGION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN A POTENTIAL
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER APPROACHING BY NEXT WEEKEND. EITHER OR BOTH OF
THESE MOISTURE SOURCES MAY EVENTUALLY HELP TO BRING A RETURN TO
RAIN CHANCES AT SOME POINT BEFORE THE END OF THE MONTH, BUT IT IS
TOO EARLY TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA ON TIMING AND/OR PLACEMENT FOR ANY
WEATHER SYSTEMS OVER A WEEK OUT.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1735Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS WITH PERIODS OF VRB INTERMIXED. JUST PAST MID-NIGHT
TONIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE EAST, AND LOOK TO RESUME
TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES TOMORROW. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 07
KTS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH FEW MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS
DEVELOPING LATER IN THE PERIOD.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FOR TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL FAVOR A WESTERLY COMPONENT AT KIPL WHILE KBLH
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NW. SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 5-7
KTS OR LOWER. FEW PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AT KIPL, OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT BOTH TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
DRIER AIR HAS SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA SINCE YESTERDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN CLEARING SKIES AND AN END TO THE RAIN CHANCES.
THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL STILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BRINGING LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES TO MOUNTAIN
AREAS SATURDAY, BUT NO WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL FALL INTO A 25-50% RANGE FOLLOWING GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY
AND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH ONLY SOME BREEZINESS
POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN DISTRICTS. OVERALL
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
FAIRLY STABLE HUMIDITIES AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE
NORMAL RANGE BY AROUND TUESDAY.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KUHLMAN
LONG TERM...KUHLMAN
AVIATION...RYAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
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