460
FXUS65 KPSR 241122
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
422 AM MST SAT OCT 24 2026
UPDATED...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE READINGS WARM BACK CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE
BULK OF NEXT WEEK.
- ASIDE FROM A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF ARIZONA
TODAY, DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL GRACE THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- A RETURN TO INCLEMENT WEATHER WITH INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES
IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED A RECENTLY CLOSED OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH A PROMINENT VORTICITY
CENTER ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LOW AND MOVING EAST ACROSS SOCAL
WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN IMPERIAL COUNTY AND SOUTHERN YUMA
COUNTY. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS AZ TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND EXIT THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS BY MONDAY. AS THE COLD-CORE
PUSHES INTO AZ THIS AFTERNOON IT WILL BE ENOUGH, COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HEATING, TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AZ HIGH TERRAIN, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF GILA
COUNTY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS MARICOPA AND PINAL
COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE VORTICITY CENTER PASSES OVERHEAD,
BUT WITH LOW MIXING RATIOS AROUND 4-6 G/KG ANY SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY BE INCONSEQUENTIAL AND NOT LEAD TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL. A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASE TO AROUND 7 C/KM, WITH CHANCES
BETTER IN THE FOOTHILLS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF PHOENIX. MAYBE
EVEN A COLD-AIR FUNNEL. H5 HEIGHTS AROUND 565-572 DAM THIS
WEEKEND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES 3-6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WITH
LOWER DESERT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S AND LOWS IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IT SHOULD BE A COMFORTABLE FALL WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK WITH
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND LOW. AN INCREASE IN H5
HEIGHTS UP TO 579-582 DAM BY MONDAY WILL SUPPORT THE GRADUAL
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE
80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS, WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. DRY
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL UNDER THIS PATTERN AS WELL. MODEL
UNCERTAINTY GROWS LATER NEXT WEEK AS THERE ARE HINTS AT SOME
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST, THEN A
POTENTIAL ATMOSPHERIC RIVER APPROACHING BY NEXT WEEKEND. EITHER,
OR BOTH OF THESE MOISTURE SOURCES MAY EVENTUALLY HELP TO BRING A
RETURN TO RAIN CHANCES AT SOME POINT BEFORE THE END OF THE MONTH,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA ON TIMING AND/OR PLACEMENT
FOR ANY WEATHER FEATURE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1120Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD. CAN EXPECT SOME LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CU AOA
7KFT AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS, BUT THEY SHOULD POSE NO
REAL IMPACT AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THE
OVERALL WIND PATTERN WILL EXHIBIT THE TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES
WITH OVERALL SPEEDS AOB 7 KTS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
VARIABILITY TO EVEN CALM CONDITIONS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN THE WEST TO NORTH
WITH OVERALL SPEEDS AOB 7 KTS ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT
VARIABILITY. OTHER THAN SOME SCT TO BKN CLOUD DECKS AROUND 10 KFT
EARLY THIS MORNING, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED.
FIRE WEATHER
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY TO MOUNTAIN AREAS TODAY, BUT
NO WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
FALL INTO A 25-50% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DRY HEADING INTO
THE START OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY FALLING CLOSER TO
15-35%. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN GOOD AT 45-70% ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE NORMAL RANGE BY MONDAY, AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS EACH DAY FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES. A SHIFT IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK MAY BRING ABOUT
COOLER, WETTER, AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BENEDICT
LONG TERM...18/BENEDICT
AVIATION...LOJERO/KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...BENEDICT/KUHLMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page