005
FXUS65 KPSR 241958
AFDPSR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
1258 PM MST SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BEFORE READINGS WARM BACK CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE
BULK OF NEXT WEEK.
- ASIDE FROM A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY, DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL GRACE THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
- A RETURN TO INCLEMENT WEATHER WITH INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES
IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE CUT OFF LOW SYSTEM IS QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
DESERTS, WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW NOW OVER MARICOPA COUNTY AND IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE N/NE INTO NORTHERN AZ AND OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND EXITING BY MONDAY. AS THIS
SYSTEM PASSES VERY LOCALIZED AREAS ACROSS MARICOPA AND GILA
COUNTY CAN EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE METRO ALREADY EXPERIENCING SPRINKLES
OVER THEM, ACTIVITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR AND LIFT NORTH OF
THE CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS,
THERE ALSO REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. BY SUNDAY, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, THANKS TO H5 HEIGHTS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 576-579 DAM, RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
INCREASING 2-3 DEGREES FROM TODAY. THIS WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK, BUT THANKFULLY OVER THE
WEEKEND THE REGION WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL, IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK WITH
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND LOW. AN INCREASE IN H5
HEIGHTS UP TO 579-582 DAM BY MONDAY WILL SUPPORT THE GRADUAL
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE
80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER
DESERTS, WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. DRY
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL UNDER THIS PATTERN AS WELL. MODEL
UNCERTAINTY GROWS LATER NEXT WEEK AS THERE ARE HINTS AT SOME
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST, THEN A
POTENTIAL ATMOSPHERIC RIVER APPROACHING BY NEXT WEEKEND. EITHER,
OR BOTH OF THESE MOISTURE SOURCES MAY EVENTUALLY HELP TO BRING A
RETURN TO RAIN CHANCES AT SOME POINT BEFORE THE END OF THE MONTH,
BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA ON TIMING AND/OR PLACEMENT
FOR ANY WEATHER FEATURE THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
AVIATION
UPDATED AT 1720Z.
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, AND KDVT:
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL FOLLOW FAMILIAR DIURNAL TRENDS WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
AOB 10 KT. A VERY ISOLATED SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING ARE 10% OR LESS, SO
THERE IS CURRENTLY NO MENTION ON THE TAFS. IF VCSH DO COME TO
FRUITION, SOME BRIEF ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT. SCT
CLOUD DECKS, AROUND 7-9 KFT WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE CLEAR SKIES TAKE OVER FROM THERE.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH:
NO AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL FAVOR A W'RLY COMPONENT AT KIPL, WHILE KBLH WILL SEE N'RLY
FLOW TILT MORE TO THE WEST BY THIS EVENING. PERIODIC WINDOWS OF
VRB CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED DURING THE FORECAST WINDOW. CLEAR
SKIES WILL BE COMMON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND
BRINGING LIGHT SHOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LITTLE TO NO
WETTING RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. MINIMUM HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL FALL
INTO A 25-50% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DRY HEADING INTO THE
START OF THE WORKWEEK, WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITY FALLING CLOSER TO
15-35%. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN GOOD AT 45-70% ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE NORMAL RANGE BY MONDAY, AND WITH LIGHT
WINDS EACH DAY FAVORING TYPICAL DIURNAL TENDENCIES. A SHIFT IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK MAY BRING ABOUT
COOLER, WETTER, AND BREEZIER CONDITIONS.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RYAN
LONG TERM...18/BENEDICT
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...RYAN/KUHLMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page