107
FXUS65 KPUB 170532
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1032 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- 5 TO 10 F WARMER TOMORROW.
- SNOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MTNS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 221 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
CURRENTLY...
BESIDES SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS GENERALLY SOUTH OF US50, SKIES WERE
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WERE COOL, WITH 30S AND 40S
OVER THE PLAINS, WITH SOME 50S IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WET
MTN VALLEY, AND PARTS OF THE UPPER AND MID ARK RVR VALLEY. IN
GENERAL, TEMPS WERE WARMER ABOVE ~7000 FEET EAST OF THE SANGRES AND
CENTRAL MTNS. FARTHER WEST IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND THE GUNNISON
VALLEY, IT WAS NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH TEMPS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
TONIGHT...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THE FCST BUT HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE PLAINS.
WESTERLY LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS AROUND 30F ALONG THE
MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE AND ALONG THE NORTH FACINGS SLOPES OF THE
RATON MESA REGION. OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS SHOULD SEE MINS IN
THE 20-25F RANGE. OVER THE INTERIOR, THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND PARTS
OF THE GUNNISON VALLEY WILL SEE MINS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WITH 10S AND 20S OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TOMORROW...
WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AREA-WIDE. WARMEST TEMPS WILL
OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS WERE IT WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 10F WARMER WHILE
OVER THE MTNS/PLAINS WILL BE 3 TO 6F DEGREES WARMER.
ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION
TOMORROW, AND THIS WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CENTRAL MTNS,
GENERALLY NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS PRIOR TO
SUNSET SHOULD BE LIGHT, GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.
AS FOR WINDS, ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO COME DOWN THE PLAINS
TOMORROW, WITH NORTHERLY FLOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON GRADUALLY BECOMING
UPSLOPE BY LATE IN TEH AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE SOME INCREASING
LOWER CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ON THE PALMER DIVIDE, BY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. \/HODANISH
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 221 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
TUESDAY NIGHT: QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY NIGHT, THOUGH SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE SOUTHERN FRINGES
OF A QUICKLY DIGGING SHORTWAVE WILL CLIP THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING, AND EXIT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FURTHER EAST, STRONG FORCING IS NOT EXPECTED
AS THE SYSTEM PASSES. HOWEVER, AN UPTICK IN OROGRAPHIC FORCING IS
ANTICIPATED, THOUGH MOSTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THIS,
ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS, WITH EVERYWHERE ELSE REMAINING DRY. OUTSIDE OF ALL THAT,
POCKETS OF MID TO HIGH LEVELS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. LOOKING
AT TEMPERATURES, A CHILLY BUT NEAR SEASONAL NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED
THANKS TO A MINOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY EVENING.
WEDNESDAY - SUNDAY: FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, QUIET
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS AND REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. ENSEMBLE MODEL
GUIDANCE ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THIS, LEADING TO HIGH TO VERY
HIGH (80-90%) CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION. WITH THE STRONG
RIDGE IN PLACE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS AND OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. LOOKING
AT TEMPERATURES, A MILD STRETCH OF DAYS IS EXPECTED. WITH THE
RIDGE IN PLACE, AND PERIODS OF AT LEAST MODEST DOWNSLOPING
WINDS, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL WARM TO ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MID TO LATE DECEMBER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1031 PM MST MON DEC 16 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES (KALS,
KCOS, AND KPUB) THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN AT ALL TERMINALS DUE TO A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE OVER THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR AROUND
21Z AT KALS AND KCOS, AND 22Z AT KPUB, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A WIND
SHIFT OUT OF THE N-NE AT ALL TERMINALS, AND COULD BE GUSTY AT KCOS
AND KPUB DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WSCONDS
FROM 09-15Z AT KCOS, AND 10-15Z AT KPUB, AT AROUND FL020. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING MORE
DIURNALLY INFLUENCED AS THEY DO. -STEWEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...STEWARD
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