823
FXUS65 KPUB 171005
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
305 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TODAY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH GUSTY WINDS OUT
OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY EVENING, WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM OUT OF THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST.
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION, WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS.
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
TODAY...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY QUITE ZONAL, HOWEVER, THERE WILL
BE AN EMBEDDED MINOR SHORTWAVE AT THE 500 MB LEVEL PROPAGATING OVER
THE REGION BY LATER IN THE DAY AS THERE BEGINS TO BE SOME DEEPENING
OCCURRING AFTER THE WAVE MOVES OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THIS WILL
ENHANCE THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AND ADVECT
IN SOME MOISTURE, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN (MAINLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK
REGION). THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE AREA, AFTER PASSAGE OF A WEAK ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTER PASSAGE OF
THIS BOUNDARY, THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY, AS SOME OF THE HIGH RES
MODELS SUGGEST. THIS WILL BE A VERY QUICK AND BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW, SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW, AND THE MORE
LIKELY AREAS WHICH COULD HAVE ANY MEASURABLE SNOW WOULD BE IN THE
NORTHERN SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO RANGES, WITH MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO AT
BEST.
AT THE SURFACE, WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATER
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, AND ALSO WHERE THERE IS SOME
GAP FLOW WINDS FOR AREAS PRONE TO IT. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR THERE TO BE SOME SUFFICIENT ADIABATIC WARMING, SO THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME LOCATIONS OVER THE PLAINS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW
60S LATER TODAY. IT WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY MILDER FOR THE UPPER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND SAN LUIS VALLEY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S, ALTHOUGH CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT...
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE OCCURS, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT, WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWERS
TAPERING OFF AND CLEARING SKIES GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL STILL BE A LITTLE STRONG AND GUSTY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS, ALTHOUGH THESE
WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS
TO MID 20S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S
FOR HIGH COUNTRY. -STEWEY
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WESTERN US INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THEN THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS
AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE
PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO RETURN TO THE CENTRAL MTS ON MONDAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER POST-COLD FRONT,
THOUGH READINGS SHOULD STILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. FROM THURSDAY ONWARD, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL BY
5 DEGREES FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 10 DEGREES FOR THE PLAINS.
THEREFORE, PLAN ON HIGHS WED IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS AND MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE PLAINS. STARTING THU,
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND 50S
FOR THE PLAINS. MOORE
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES (KALS,
KCOS, AND KPUB) THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN AT ALL TERMINALS DUE TO A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE OVER THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL OCCUR AROUND
21Z AT KALS AND KCOS, AND 22Z AT KPUB, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
WINDSHIFT OUT OF THE N-NE AT ALL TERMINALS, AND COULD BE GUSTY AT
KCOS AND KPUB DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
WS CONDS AROUND FL020 UNTIL 15Z AT BOTH KCOS AND KPUB. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING
MORE DIURNALLY INFLUENCED AS THEY DO. -STEWEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...STEWARD
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