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FXUS65 KPUB 172221
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
321 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION, WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE TOWARDS THE EVENING
HOURS.
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING, WHILE SOUTHWARD
MOVING FRONT NOTED VIA RADAR AND OBS OVER CENTRAL CO WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE PLAINS. INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS AND COOLING
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND WHILE SOME SLIGHT INCREASES IN SNOW
CHANCES WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING, DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE WILL
LIMIT SNOW DEVELOPMENT. STILL THINK LIGHT SNOW/ACCUMS. WILL STAY
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, MAINLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
PALMER DIVIDE THIS EVENING AS 700MB FLOW SHIFTS MORE NORTHERLY.
HOWEVER, AGAIN, DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT SNOW DEVELOPMENT AND
ANY IMPACTS.
THIS UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY, WITH A RETURN TO
MORE ZONAL FLOW. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY,
WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ASSIST WITH A WARMING AIR MASS, WITH
700MB TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. DID RAISE
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN SPOTS, BUT COULD SEE LATER
FORECASTS INCREASE EVEN MORE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
UPPER RIDGING WILL BE THE TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH WARMING NOTED OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, POTENTIALLY WELL INTO
THE 60S, IS APPEARING HIGHLY LIKELY. WITH THIS SETUP AND WITH
DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, PRECIP DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED
DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS SIMILAR TREND OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, IT IS STILL LOOKING RATHER WARM
THOUGH KEEPING A CLOSE ON MODEL TRENDS DURING THIS PERIOD.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW, SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT A
LARGE TROUGH/LOW PUSHING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. AGAIN,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN MODEL VARIABILITY, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1033 AM MST TUE DEC 17 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. WINDS EARLY THIS FCST PERIOD WILL
TYPICALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK
COOL FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...RODRIGUEZ
AVIATION...HODANISH
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