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FXUS65 KPUB 181004
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
304 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- NOTABLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
PLAINS.
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
TODAY...
WITH THE EXITING TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN BEHIND
IT, THERE WILL BE PARTIAL CLEARING WITH ANY REMAINING SHOWER OVER
THE SE PLAINS COMING TO AND END EARLY THIS MORNING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING BY LATER TODAY DUE TO THE BAROCLINIC LEAF
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH WELL UPSTREAM OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS
WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH, WITH UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMING
PREDOMINANT ACROSS THE PLAINS. DUE TO THIS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NOTABLY COOLER TODAY, WITH UPPER 40S TO MID 50S EXPECTED FOR THE
PLAINS, MOSTLY 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGH COUNTRY, AND MID TO UPPER 20S
FOR THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS.
TONIGHT...
WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL B. E
SOMEWHAT MODIFIED, AND GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE
PLAINS. IT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
ALTHOUGH THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE FELT WITHIN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
DUE TO EFFICIENT DRAINAGE, WITH LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND EVEN NEAR 0F FOR ALAMOSA. -STEWEY
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
OVERALL, BEAUTIFUL DECEMBER WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US THROUGH SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR
MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPS EACH DAY IN
THE 40S TO AROUND 50F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, WHICH IS AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, AND 50S TO AROUND 60F FOR THE PLAINS WHICH IS
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SUNDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A QUICK-MOVING UPPER
DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKY MT REGION ON
SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE OVER CO SOMEWHAT AND
PRODUCE A MORE WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE STATE. THOUGH IT WILL
BE TOO FAR NORTH TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION FOR THE FORECAST AREA,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND ENHANCED WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
ARE ANTICIPATED, WHICH SHOULD HELP BOOST MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50F
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, WHILE THE PLAINS CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO BECOME A BIT MORE
ACTIVE FOR THE START OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK, AND LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE STILL TRYING TO GET A HANDLE ON A NUMBER OF APPROACHING
DISTURBANCES. THE CONSENSUS, THOUGH, IS THAT SOME LIGHT MT SNOW
RETURNS TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON MONDAY, WITH A BRIEF BREAK ON
TUESDAY, AND LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS. STAY TUNED AS
THE HOLIDAY FORECAST BECOMES MORE CLEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. MOORE
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES (KALS,
KCOS, AND KPUB) THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
(LESS THAN 10 KTS) AND PRIMARILY INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL WIND FLOW
PATTERNS AT ALL TERMINALS. -STEWEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...STEWARD
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