944
FXUS65 KPUB 182106
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
206 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT,
HOWEVER, REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA.
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR EAST, WE HAVE
OBSERVED A RETURN TO MORE ZONAL FLOW TODAY. HOWEVER, IN ITS
WAKE, A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG JET HAVE BEEN MOVING
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS CONTINUES TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPILL OFF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS, ALONG WITH WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASING. THE
STRONGER ENERGY, GREATER HEIGHT FALLS, AND UPPER JET DO LOOK TO
STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL ASSIST WITH LIMITING PRECIP DEVELOPMENT, AS WELL AS
KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTS JUST TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF THIS OCCURRING, DON'T ANTICIPATE THE NEED
FOR ANY HIGH WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. DO THINK A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 50 TO 60 MPH WILL BE OBSERVED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND RAMPARTS.
GIVEN THE WESTERLY FLOW, ONGOING WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SOUTHERN
COLORADO AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024
THURSDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY: FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF
THE WEEKEND, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, AND GIVEN THE
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. OUTSIDE OF THAT, LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ARE EXPECTED. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES FOR LATE DECEMBER.
SUNDAY - TUESDAY: FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
SOME ACTIVE WEATHER STARTS TO MAKE A RETURN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN MATERIALIZES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL START TO BREAKDOWN AS MORE
MERIDIONAL AND WAVY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
US. THIS FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF INCREASED FORCING TO THE
AREA, AND GIVEN AT LEAST MODEST MOISTURE IN PLACE, WILL ALLOW
FOR HEIGHTENED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE ANY
FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. WITH THAT ALL SAID, CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH (70%) IN THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND DEVELOPMENT OF A
MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN GIVEN STRONG AGREEMENT WITHIN ENSEMBLE
MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT LOW (20-30%) IN HOW INDIVIDUAL WAVES WITHIN
THE OVERALL FLOW WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE, WHICH WILL PLAY A LARGE
ROLE IN WHEN, WHERE, AND HOW MUCH OF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES, THEY WILL FLUCTUATE TO AROUND AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
SEASONAL VALUES AS THE UNSETTLED PATTERN BRINGS DOWNSLOPING
WINDS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MST WED DEC 18 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NEAR CERTAIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
3 TAF SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...HODANISH
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