587  
FXUS65 KPUB 190536  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
1036 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT,  
HOWEVER, REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA.  
 
- DRY AND MILD WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 1031 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024  
 
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE WINDS AROUND THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY  
AREA WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING FROM 50 TO 65 MPH ALONG THE  
WEST SIDE OF THE AREA ACCORDING TO HWAS SENSORS. THIS EVENT  
LOOKS BRIEF AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES TO THE NORTH AND DOWNWARD  
FORCING IS HELPING TO SPREAD WINDS DOWN THE EASTERN SLOPES. WILL  
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS BUT FOR  
NOW WILL HOLD THE COURSE. -KT  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024  
 
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR EAST, WE HAVE  
OBSERVED A RETURN TO MORE ZONAL FLOW TODAY. HOWEVER, IN ITS  
WAKE, A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND STRONG JET HAVE BEEN MOVING  
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS CONTINUES TO PUSH  
THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,  
MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SPILL OFF THE  
EASTERN MOUNTAINS, ALONG WITH WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASING. THE  
STRONGER ENERGY, GREATER HEIGHT FALLS, AND UPPER JET DO LOOK TO  
STAY WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.  
THIS WILL ASSIST WITH LIMITING PRECIP DEVELOPMENT, AS WELL AS  
KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS AND GUSTS JUST TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE  
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF THIS OCCURRING, DON'T ANTICIPATE THE NEED  
FOR ANY HIGH WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. DO THINK A FEW GUSTS  
UP TO 50 TO 60 MPH WILL BE OBSERVED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN  
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND RAMPARTS.  
 
GIVEN THE WESTERLY FLOW, ONGOING WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO  
THURSDAY, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO SOUTHERN  
COLORADO AND DRY WEATHER PERSISTING.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 204 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY: FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND START OF  
THE WEEKEND, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION, AND GIVEN THE  
INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL  
PREVAIL. OUTSIDE OF THAT, LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,  
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ARE EXPECTED. LOOKING AT  
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL  
REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES FOR LATE DECEMBER.  
 
SUNDAY - TUESDAY: FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD,  
SOME ACTIVE WEATHER STARTS TO MAKE A RETURN TO SOUTH CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AS A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN MATERIALIZES.  
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL START TO BREAKDOWN AS MORE  
MERIDIONAL AND WAVY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL  
US. THIS FLOW WILL BRING PERIODS OF INCREASED FORCING TO THE  
AREA, AND GIVEN AT LEAST MODEST MOISTURE IN PLACE, WILL ALLOW  
FOR HEIGHTENED PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THE  
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE ANY  
FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST. WITH THAT ALL SAID, CONFIDENCE IS  
HIGH (70%) IN THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND DEVELOPMENT OF A  
MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN GIVEN STRONG AGREEMENT WITHIN ENSEMBLE  
MODEL GUIDANCE, BUT LOW (20-30%) IN HOW INDIVIDUAL WAVES WITHIN  
THE OVERALL FLOW WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE, WHICH WILL PLAY A LARGE  
ROLE IN WHEN, WHERE, AND HOW MUCH OF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS.  
OTHERWISE, LIGHT WINDS WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER ARE  
ANTICIPATED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. AS FOR  
TEMPERATURES, THEY WILL FLUCTUATE TO AROUND AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
SEASONAL VALUES AS THE UNSETTLED PATTERN BRINGS DOWNSLOPING  
WINDS AND A WEAK COLD FRONT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1013 PM MST WED DEC 18 2024  
 
A 3-4 HOUR WINDOW FOR LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF  
THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITE AS WINDS HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF A  
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT WHILE WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 50 MPH  
HAVE SPREAD DOWN INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY.  
THIS COULD RESULT IN LLWS AS THESE WINDS SPREAD OFF THE  
MOUNTAINS ALOFT AND OVER THE TAF SITES. LLWS SHOULD ABATE  
AROUND 10Z AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE MOUNTAINS AND WINDS  
BECOME DOMINATED BY NORTHWESTERLIES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR HIGH  
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AND MORE DIURNALLY  
DRIVEN ON THURSDAY.  
 
KALS WILL SEE LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS WITH PASSING HIGH  
CLOUDINESS AT TIMES. -KT  
 
 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...KT  
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ  
LONG TERM...SIMCOE  
AVIATION...KT  
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