756
FXUS65 KPUB 191013
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
313 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING IN AND AROUND
THE VICINITY OF AIR FORCE ACADEMY, AS WELL AS AREAS PRONE TO
GAP FLOW.
- WARMER TODAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
- DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
TODAY...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION HAS
RESULTED IN SOME STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR THE RAMPARTS/AIR FORCE ACADEMY AREA, AND ALSO OVER AREAS
WHICH ARE PRONE TO GAP FLOW WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS THE U/L TROUGH PROPAGATES
FURTHER EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONDITIONS WILL
STRENGTHEN, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN STATES BECOMING
WELL AMPLIFIED AND SLOWLY ADVANCING TOWARDS THE REGION. BECAUSE OF
THIS, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY AND BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S, AND FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S (OR 20S FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS), AND 40S FOR THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WINDS WILL
TRANSITION FROM BEING MORE SYNOPTICALLY INFLUENCED TO DIURNALLY
INFLUENCED BY LATER IN THE DAY.
TONIGHT...
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND WITH LIGHT WINDS, RADIATIONAL COOLING
WILL BE EFFICIENT AND SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL DROP TO TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ZERO
MARK BY EARLY MORNING TOMORROW. FOR THE PLAINS, LOWS WILL DROP INTO
THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. FOR HIGH COUNTRY, IN GENERAL, THE
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. -STEWEY
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN US FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN FLATTEN OUT
SOMEWHAT FOR SUNDAY AS A DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE ROCKIES WELL TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL PRODUCE CONTINUING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS FOR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH PERHAPS AN UPTICK IN
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ON SUNDAY. PLAN ON HIGH TEMPS EACH DAY IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50F FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, WHICH IS AROUND 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL, AND 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS WHICH IS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE
DYNAMIC STARTING MONDAY, WITH ONE QUICK WAVE BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON MONDAY, A BRIEF BREAK ON TUESDAY, THEN A
MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER FEATURE AFFECTING THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
MODELS VARY ON POSITIONING AND STRENGTH OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM, BUT
SURPRISINGLY THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING. THE EXTENDED
PROCEDURE IS SEEING ENOUGH AGREEMENT THROUGH THE ENSEMBLES TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT
CHRISTMAS EVE, THEN SPREADING PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF COURSE ARE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
FOR SOME POSSIBLE SNOW, AND CURRENTLY CHANCES FOR A WHITE CHRISTMAS
MORNING ARE NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTWARD.
STAY TUNED AS THIS FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE. AS FOR HIGH
TEMPS, SLIGHTLY COOLER STARTING MONDAY WITH READINGS IN THE 40S AND
50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOORE
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 AM MST THU DEC 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES (KALS,
KCOS, AND KPUB) THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
(LESS THAN 10 KTS) AND PRIMARILY INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL WIND FLOW
PATTERNS AT ALL TERMINALS. -STEWEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...STEWARD
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