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FXUS65 KPUB 200543
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1043 PM MST THU DEC 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- TRANQUIL WEATHER CONTINUES.
- QUIET WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WARM TEMPERATURES.
- POSSIBLE STORM SYSTEM FOR MID NEXT WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU DEC 19 2024
QUITE A BIT OF THIN CIRRUS WAS NOTED OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
WITH AMBIENT TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F, WITH
40S IN TE VALLEYS; 30S IN THE MTNS. WIND WERE QUITE LIGHT OVER THE
PLAINS EXCEPT FOR WALSENBURG WHERE WINDS WERE GUSTING IN THE 30S.
MTNS WERE ALSO A BIT GUSTY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS.
NEXT 24 HOURS...
NW'ERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE GRADIENT DECREASING WITH
TIME. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS, WITH
50S TO AROUND 60 PLAINS, AND 40S MTNS. VARIABLE HIGH, GENERALLY
THIN, HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART, WITH SOME GUSTINESS CONTINUING
OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS. \/HODANISH
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST THU DEC 19 2024
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH A POSSIBLE
STORM SYSTEM FOR MID NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC
RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A SYSTEM, BUT THERE ARE BIG RUN
TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN STORM TRACK AND STRENGTH.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING TO BROAD ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP QUIET, DRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TEMPERATURES
WARM NICELY, WITH 50S ON FRIDAY, WARMING INTO THE MID 60S BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD ON
SATURDAY, ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
IN THE LEE OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. SPOTTY, NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING
WIDESPREAD.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A QUICK MOVING UPPER SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS
COULD BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW TO THE LA GARITA AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WITH MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THE 12Z GFS
FROM THIS MORNING IS A BIT STRONGER WITH THE STORM SYSTEM, AND
SPREADS LIGHT PRECIPITATION SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS INTO THE RATON MESA. THIS SOLUTION IS CURRENTLY AN
OUTLIER, AND KEPT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM, WITH MAINLY 50S ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
BY CHRISTMAS DAY, THE NEXT UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN COLORADO. THERE HAVE BEEN BIG RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
ISSUES WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE ECMWF 00Z SOLUTION
DEVELOPED AN UPPER LOW AND TRACKED IT ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THE GFS
WENT FROM A CLOSE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO TO AN OPEN WAVE
THAT QUICKLY CROSS THE STATE. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE
SNOW. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, MUCH WILL DEPEND ON STORM TRACK
AND TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS DAY LOOK TO BE WARM, WITH
40S AND 50S, AND A BULK OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE
DAY, TO OVERNIGHT. WITH THE CURRENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS,
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE LIMITED. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, DID
NOT STRAY FROM THE NBM GUIDANCE WITH LOW POPS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOZLEY
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MST THU DEC 19 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KCOS AND KPUB OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. KALS COULD SEE A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR IFR TO MVFR FOG AROUND DAY BREAK BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN BEFORE. HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS MVFR FOR
NOW DURING A BRIEF WINDOW FROM 13-15Z. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS UNDER 10 KTS. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT
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