818
FXUS65 KPUB 201105
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
405 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- QUICK MOVING PACIFIC SYSTEMS BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 403 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING TEMPS TO COOL INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATION SITES AS WELL AS THOSE NORMAL WIND-PRONE CORRIDORS SUCH AS
ALONG HIGHWAY 50 THROUGH FREMONT COUNTY INTO WESTERN PUEBLO COUNTY,
AND ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE VICINITY OF WALSENBURG, HAVE
MAINTAINED BRISK WESTERLY WINDS AT 10-20 MPH. THOSE WINDS ARE
KEEPING THE LOWER LEVELS MIXED, AND TEMPS AT THOSE LOCATIONS
CONTINUE TO HOVER IN THE 30-35 DEGREE RANGE AS OF 2 AM.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN US AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS, AND ACTUALLY WELL INTO THE WEEKEND.
PLAN ON SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AT TIMES AND WINDS GENERALLY UP
TO AROUND 10 MPH, THOUGH THOSE TYPICALLY WIND-PRONE AREAS WILL ONCE
AGAIN SEE SOME INTERMITTENT HIGHER GUSTS. ALSO, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START PICKING UP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE. AS FOR TEMPS, PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY
IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50 FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS, AND MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S FOR THE PLAINS. THESE EXPECTED READINGS ARE RIGHT AROUND
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT ARE FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE TEENS TO MID 20S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, ZERO TO 10 ABOVE FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, AND 30-35F IN
THE BANANA BELT THAT HOVERS RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
EASTERN MTS. MOORE
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 403 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
FLATTENS ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH INCREASING WESTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY, AS EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. WARM AND DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE
WILL KEEP ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY, AND MAINLY
IN THE 30S AND 40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. INCREASING
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN THE INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING SOME WAVE CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH BREEZY
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS HELPING BOOST TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND MAINLY
IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WARM AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS COULD BRING SOME SPOTTY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY,
HOWEVER DOES NOT LOOK TO BE VERY WIDESPREAD AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL DATA HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED
WITH EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER AND
NOW DIGS A QUICK MOVING SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PASSING SYSTEM
DOES NOT HAVE A LOT OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT, THOUGH LOOKS TO
BRING SNOW TO CENTRAL MTNS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION SPREADING OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY NIGHT,
AS THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EAST. WITH PACIFIC ORIGIN AND LACK OF COLD
AIR, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS MAINLY IN THE
50S ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY, WITH 30S AND 40S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS SHORT WAVE RIDGING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE ROCKIES CHRISTMAS DAY, WHICH THEN CONTINUES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND WITH THAT SAID, WE HAVE
STAYED CLOSE TO NBM WHICH DOES BRING LIKELY POPS TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD ON CHRISTMAS DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES CHRISTMAS NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. AGAIN, WITH PACIFIC ORIGIN
AND LACK OF COLD AIR, TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS,
AND IN THE 30S AND 40S ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 403 AM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
NEXT 24 HRS, INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS, KPUB AND
KALS. SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KTS AND UNDER FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, AND DIURNAL IN DIRECTION.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE
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