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FXUS65 KPUB 210514
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1014 PM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT WEATHER WITH WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
TYPE FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS THE
WESTERN US AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL REACH THE UPPER 50'S TO LOW 60'S EAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHEREAS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY'S
WILL REACH THE UPPER 30'S TO UPPER 40'S IN SOME SPOTS. LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW ARE FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE TEENS TO MID
20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, ZERO TO AROUND 10 THROUGHOUT THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY, AND 30-35F IN ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES BUT MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 PM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE A BIT IN THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TIME PERIOD WITH THE PATTERN EVOLUTION. THE ECMWF, ICON AND
CANADIAN ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS AN
OUTLIER WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES, ESPECIALLY WITH A QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS MONTANA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL FLATTEN UPPER RIDGING ACROSS COLORADO WITH
MORE ZONAL FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION AND HELP INCREASE WINDS BY SUNDAY. ENHANCED MIXING DUE
TO THESE WINDS WILL HELP NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW HUMIDITY VALUES AND SPOTTY WIND GUSTS COULD LEAD
TO A FEW NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH AN INCOMING UPPER SHORTWAVE FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL SHIFT
NORTHWESTERLY, WITH INCREASING LIGHT SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE GFS, WHICH
IS THE OUTLIER, IS STRONGER AND BRINGS A DECENT SHOT OF HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THE GFS TRACKS THIS WAVE FROM NORTHWEST COLORADO, SOUTH
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND CLEARS IT SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS PRINTS OUT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS, SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA
REGION, AND LIGHT RAIN INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER, THE BULK
OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THE ECMWF, CANADIAN AND ICON ARE QUICK MOVING AND MOISTURE
STARVED. ALL OF THESE SOLUTIONS BRING A QUICK BURST OF LIGHT
SNOW TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WITH PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. OVERALL, DID NOT STRAY AWAY FROM THE
DRIER SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS FOR MONDAY, WITH 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT
WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE AREA CHRISTMAS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRETTY MUCH ALL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A
CLOSED LOW NOW, AS OPPOSED TO AN OPEN WAY, AND TRACK IT
QUICKLY EASTWARD ALONG THE COLORADO-NEW MEXICO BORDER. THIS WILL
BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM, WITH CONTINUED HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 50S FOR
THE PLAINS. ANOTHER FACTOR WILL BE THE NORTH WINDS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD LIKELY CREATE A DOWNSLOPE
EFFECT KEEPING THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY DRY, AND
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON RIDGE. AS
FOR POTENTIAL SNOWFALL TOTALS, MOUNTAIN AREAS COULD SEE A FEW
INCHES, WHILE THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA COULD SEE A QUICK
DUSTING BY THURSDAY MORNING.
BEYOND CHRISTMAS, UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO POSSIBLY CONTINUE.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN WARM, WITH 40S TO 50S ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE UPPER PATTERN WOULD FAVOR PERIODS OF
SNOW, MAINLY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, HOWEVER, TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES REMAINS IN QUESTION. MOZLEY
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1013 PM MST FRI DEC 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NEAR CERTAIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
3 TAF SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...CLOUSE
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
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