418
FXUS65 KPUB 211105 CCA
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
405 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TONIGHT.
- A BREEZY AND WARM SUNDAY IS LIKELY, WITH BRIEF NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HUERFANO
COUNTY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MODERATE TO
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AS
SHORT WAVE ENERGY DIGS DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN SEABOARD. GOES DATA INDICATES SOME
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PASSING SHORT WAVE PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR ALOFT UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE AND NW
DOWNSLOPE HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME, WITH A MIXTURE OF 20S AND 30S
ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS OF 1 AM, SAVE
FOR SINGLE DIGITS, TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
LATEST MODEL DATA IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF MODERATING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE DAY, AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES,
BEFORE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASES OVERNIGHT, AS MORE
EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER FLATTENS THE
RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION. LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR THIS MORNING, WILL HELP DEVELOP WEAK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE
FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING MODEST MID LEVEL INVERSIONS KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AS COMPARED TO UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
AND THE RATON MESA. HIGHS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S, SAVE FOR 30S AT THE PEAKS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW TONIGHT LEADS TO STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH ACROSS
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 40 MPH DEVELOPING
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVERNIGHT. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
KEEP MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE BANANA BELT OVERNIGHT,
WITH A MIXTURE OF 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS, COLDEST ACROSS THE LOWER
ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY, AS WELL AS TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
SAVE FOR SINGLE DIGIT LOWS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
SUNDAY..
RIDGING FLATTENS OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY AS A WAVE PASSES AND STRENGTHENS
TO OUR NORTH. THIS WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK
TO BE AROUND 14 TO 18 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS,
THOUGH NO RECORDS LOOK TO BE IN DANGER FOR SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH
40S AND LOW 50S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WEST WINDS WILL BE A BIT
ELEVATED THROUGH OUR GAP FLOW AREAS AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS
OF VERY SPOTTY FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR HUERFANO COUNTY ON
SUNDAY, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20% RANGE ACROSS THE PLAINS. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A LOW FORMS TO OUR
NORTH AND TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS FEATURE
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST, LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
RETURN TO OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY..
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION
OF A SERIES OF WAVES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE FIRST OF
WHICH LOOKS TO COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
THE MOST DRAMATIC WITH THIS WAVE, THOUGH THE EC IS BEGINNING TO COME
ALONG SLOWLY. RUN-TO-RUN COMPARISON OF EPS MEMBERS SHOWS A
SIGNIFICANT TREND TOWARDS THE GEFS SOLUTION IN AMPLITUDE. IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES, PRECIP CHANCES COULD SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE. IF NOT, SNOW
CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. EITHER WAY, SNOW
TOTALS LOOK TO BE VERY LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND TEMPERATURES MAY BE
TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW AT ALL OVER EL PASO COUNTY. DAYTIME HIGHS
ON MONDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 40S FOR
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BEHIND
THAT FIRST WAVE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION, THOUGH MOST
AREAS STILL LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY..
MODELS ARE MOVING TOWARDS MORE CONFIDENCE WITH THE CHRISTMAS DAY
SYSTEM, WITH MOST SOLUTIONS BRINGING A CLOSED LOW INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BEFORE DRAGGING IT SLOWLY EAST ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH NEW MEXICO. THIS TRACK WOULD CERTAINLY BRING SOME
CHRISTMAS DAY SNOW CHANCES TO THE HIGH COUNTRY, THOUGH TO PLAINS MAY
END UP BEING WARM ENOUGH FOR AN ALL RAIN EVENT DEPENDING ON TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM IN GENERAL, AND ESPECIALLY ON TIMING OF ITS COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE PLAINS. SO FAR, SNOW TOTALS LOOK TO BE UNIMPACTFUL EITHER
WAY. TIMING OF THIS FRONT COULD ALSO IMPACT DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY IF IT ENDS UP PUSHING THROUGH EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. AS OF NOW, HIGHS STILL LOOK TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S ON THE PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH THE FRONT COMING
THROUGH AFTER MAX HEATING.
THURSDAY ONWARDS..
MODELS SUGGEST THAT OUR PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE, WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
CONTINUING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH 40S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER WAVE AROUND THE FRIDAY TIME PERIOD, WHICH
COULD BRING WITH IT ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIP CHANCES, ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT COS, PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...MW
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