417
FXUS65 KPUB 212342
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
442 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK,
BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME
MOISTURE ON THE PLAINS AS WELL.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT
7 DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 201 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 40S OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS COLORADO WILL
FLATTEN OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE
GRADIENT ACROSS COLORADO OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OVERNIGHT,
MAINLY FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
20S ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY, AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ALONG THE MID SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, WHILE THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY FALLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
FOR SUNDAY, THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO
THE DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON. ENHANCED MIXING WILL HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPOTTY AREAS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. AN INCREASE IN
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS ALSO FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY LATE AFTERNOON, TURNING LOW LEVEL FLOW EASTERLY BY
EVENING. MOZLEY
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
MONDAY-TUESDAY...
ON MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH ALONG WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL SEND SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION DOWN
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA, NOTICEABLY DECREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM
SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW-50S ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS/PLAINS INTERFACE. MEANWHILE, THE HIGH VALLEYS WILL REMAIN
IN THE 40S. MODELS ARE STILL A BIT SHY WITH MOISTURE AS THE TROUGH
PASSES BY, BUT A BIT OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN SOME LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE PEAKS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS WELL, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND TEENS IN THE VALLEYS. A FEW AREAS ALONG THE TERRAIN
INTERFACE MAY HOVER IN THE LOW-30S, RIGHT AROUND FREEZING.
FOR TUESDAY, THE REST OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS US BY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM OUR WEST. SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SOME MODELS PUTTING SOME ISOLATED LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AND PARTS OF I-25, CARRIED BY BREEZY
NORTHWEST FLOW THAT SETS IN ALOFT. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IN ANY
ACCUMULATIONS HIGHER THAN A BRIEF DUSTING ARE LOW (<20%), AS MODELS
ARE STILL SHOWING A RELATIVELY DRY SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
JUST A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN MONDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SIMILAR
TO MONDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS...
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO CONVERGE ON A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION FOR
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A CLOSED LOW INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
LATE MORNING. THE SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE BRINGING A DECENT AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE WITH IT, AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SNOW MOVING INTO
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THOUGH
DIFFERENT MODELS DISAGREE ON THE EXACT PATH AND SPEED OF THE SYSTEM.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD TO THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF
THE PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY, THOUGH DUE TO WARM
TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS (LOW-MID 50S), ANYTHING OUT EAST SHOULD
JUST FALL AS RAIN. CURRENTLY, FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT,
THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS, WITH THE GFS BEING A PARTICULARLY WET OUTLIER.
CURRENT DATA IS STILL LEANING TOWARDS AN ACTIVE, OR AT LEAST
UNSETTLED, PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK. A SECONDARY TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR
AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND
MORE SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS, WITH A LOWER BUT NON-ZERO CHANCE OF
MOISTURE FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY JUST BE
MORE RAIN. ONCE THAT PASSES, MODELS DIVERGE QUICKLY, BUT SOME SHOW
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSING BY BEFORE A BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGHER
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
CONSISTENT, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 201 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH LIGHT, DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS. KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...KT
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