708
FXUS65 KPUB 221705
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1005 AM MST SUN DEC 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY, WITH
SPOTTY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVER
HUERFANO COUNTY.
- LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW RETURNS TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING LATE
TONIGHT.
- A DEVELOPING PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO BRING ON AND OFF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK.
- AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN DEC 22 2024
CURRENTLY..
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS
MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING OVER PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION AS SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS OF 3AM, TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE TEENS. MOST OBSERVATION LOCATIONS
ARE REPORTING WEST WINDS OR NORMAL OVERNIGHT DRAINAGE WIND PATTERNS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT..
RIDGING CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OVERHEAD AS THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR NORTH
PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE AREA, BRINGING DOWNSLOPING, WARMING WINDS OVER THE PLAINS.
DAYTIME HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO SOAR TO AROUND 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL, THOUGH IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANY RECORDS WILL BE IN DANGER OF
BEING TIED OR SURPASSED. OUR PLAINS LOOK TO HIT HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S, WITH UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S LIKELY ACROSS MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY, ESPECIALLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS,
WHICH WILL LEAD TO VERY SPOTTY AND BRIEF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER HUERFANO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SYSTEM SWINGS
BY AND INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT, CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW SPREAD INTO
OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, THOUGH TOTALS LOOK TO REMAIN LESS THAN AN
INCH OR SO. THE HRW-FV3 ALSO BRINGS RAIN CHANCES EASTWARD INTO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION, THOUGH IT SEEMS TO BE AN
OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR MANY LOCATIONS, THANKS TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW. LOWS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH TEENS FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND 20S FOR
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS. OUR BANANA BELT SPOTS COULD EVEN SEE
CONTINUED MIXING SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 40S!
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 359 AM MST SUN DEC 22 2024
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODEL DATA HAS TRENDED WEAKER AND FURTHER
NORTH WITH EASTERN PACIFIC ENERGY TRANSLATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, AS WELL AS WITH THE TRAILING ENERGY DIGGING ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE PASSING SYSTEMS DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF COLD
AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THEM AND LOOK TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO CENTRAL
MTNS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS SPREADING
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND OUT ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT, AS THE SECONDARY WAVE TRANSLATES
EAST. WITH PACIFIC ORIGIN AND LACK OF COLD AIR, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS MAINLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY, WITH 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS)...SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM TRANSLATING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM, THOUGH TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
A QUICK MOVING PROGRESSIVE PATTERN, WHICH LOOKS TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. WITH THAT SAID, WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW SPREADING INTO THE CONTDVD
THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING, WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SPREADING EAST
ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS THROUGH THE EASTERN MTNS AND I-25
CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
LOCATION OF A MID LEVEL CIRCULATION, WHICH THE LATEST CANADIAN DATA
NOW HAS MUCH FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO, AS COMPARED TO
ITS PREVIOUS RUNS, AS WELL AS THE LATEST EC AND GFS SOLUTIONS. LATEST
DESI DATA INDICATES THE BEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MTNS, WITH THE PROBABILITY OF >3 INCHES IN THE
50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE, THOUGH THE PROBABILITY OF >6 INCHES IN THESE
AREAS DROPS OFF SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE 10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. FURTHER
EAST ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION INTO THE SOUTHEAST MTNS, THE PROBABILITY
OF >3 INCHES IS THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE, GREATEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SANGRES. AGAIN, WITH THE PACIFIC ORIGIN AND LACK OF COLD AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE PASSING SYSTEMS, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN AT AND ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S ACROSS
THE PLAINS, AND IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TUESDAY AND
CHRISTMAS DAY.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE PASSING
CHRISTMAS SYSTEM, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE NEXT SYSTEM WHICH
COULD START TO SPREAD SNOW INTO THE CONTDVD THURSDAY, AS MORE EASTERN
PACIFIC ENERGY TRANSLATES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE ROCKIES.
WITH SAID MODEL DIFFERENCES, NBM KEEPS POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE CONTDVD. MODELS DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1003 AM MST SUN DEC 22 2024
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 8-10 KFT
BY LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING AND PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MOZLEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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