504
FXUS65 KPUB 222340
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
440 PM MST SUN DEC 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, MAINLY FOR
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
- UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG-TERM FORECAST, WITH A WARM BUT WET
SYSTEM MOVING INTO SE COLORADO ON CHRISTMAS, BRINGING SNOW TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLY SOME RAIN TO THE PLAINS.
- UNSETTLED AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST SUN DEC 22 2024
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVERHEAD. WINDS
ARE BREEZY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, AND ALONG THE LEE SLOPES OF
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, STRETCHING OUT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM NICELY THROUGH THE 60S TO EVEN A FEW
LOW 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
TONIGHT...THE WEAK UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS
COLORADO, WHILE A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS LOOK TO SUBSIDE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
PLAINS, SHIFTING NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
TONIGHT, WITH MOST 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH THE WARMEST
CONDITIONS WEST OF I-25 WHERE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE FORECAST.
THE COLD SPOT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, FALLING INTO
THE TEENS BY MORNING. AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE DROPS SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT, LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 10 KFT BY
MORNING.
MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRANSVERSE
ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND TRENDED DRIER OVERALL WITH THE SYSTEM. CUT BACK ON
POPS AND CONFINED THEM TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SNOW OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS COULD
PICK UP A COUPLE OF INCHES THROUGHOUT THE DAY, MAINLY NORTH OF
COTTONWOOD PASS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
PLAINS. COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER ACROSS THE PLAINS, HOWEVER, HIGHS WILL STILL BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOZLEY
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 217 PM MST SUN DEC 22 2024
TUESDAY...
FOR TUESDAY, THE REST OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PASS US BY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM OUR WEST. OTHER THAN A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING, THE
DAY SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO
MONDAY, STILL ABOVE AVERAGE, AND WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...
THE CLOSED LOW MODELS HAVE BEEN TRACKING IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION CHRISTMAS MORNING, BRINGING SYNOPTIC
LIFT AND ENOUGH MOISTURE TO CHANGE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. SNOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THE MORNING, SPREADING EAST TO
THE REST OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SNOW AMOUNTS CLOSE TO
THE PEAKS WILL BE 1-3 INCHES ON AVERAGE, WITH A FEW LOCAL AMOUNTS TO
4 INCHES OR SO. AREAS NEAR WOLF CREEK PASS WILL SEE THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS, CLOSER TO 6 INCHES.
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, MODELS STILL DIFFER A BIT WITH MOISTURE
CONTENT AND DOWNSLOPING, BUT NEW TRENDS DO SHOW A FAIR BIT MORE
MOISTURE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. NBM OUTPUT SHOWS PRECIPITATION
SPREADING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY,
DISSIPATING WEST TO EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS FAR AS
DETERMINISTIC MODELS GO, THE GFS, NAM, AND CANADIAN KEEP THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE QPF TO I-25 AND WEST, BUT THE EC DOES SHOW SOME MORE
ACTIVITY FURTHER EAST. LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, CHANCES FOR QPF
OUT EAST CURRENTLY SIT AROUND 40-45% OR SO, WITH CONFIDENCE
INCREASING THE CLOSER WE GET TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MORE THAN
YESTERDAY TO BE SURE, BUT THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF ROOM FOR
UNCERTAINTY, MAINLY CAUSED BY VARIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW AMONGST MODELS. A NORTH-TRENDING SYSTEM, WHICH IS WHAT THE
CURRENT CANADIAN AS WITH THE GFS FOLLOWING CLOSE BY, WOULD LEAD TO
THOSE DRIER SOLUTIONS, EVEN IF THE SYSTEM ITSELF IS CARRYING MORE
MOISTURE. ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES MANAGE TO FALL OVER THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD FALL AS RAIN, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 50S, WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE
RATON MESA AND PARTS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE, WHICH COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE COLDER HOURS OF THE EVENING. IT IS
WORTH NOTING THAT THE ENTIRE SYSTEM IS FAIRLY WARM, ESPECIALLY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, SO AT THIS TIME WE AREN'T EXPECTING ANY LARGE DIP
IN TEMPERATURES, AND FORECASTED SNOW AMOUNTS IN GENERAL MAY DECREASE
IN THE COMING DAYS.
DETAILS BECOME A BIT MORE CLEAR WITH EACH NEW BATCH OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS, BUT THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON
EXACTLY HOW MUCH PRECIP WE GET, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PLAINS. A 30
MILE SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH COULD RESULT IN A MUCH DRIER, OR WETTER,
SOLUTION RESPECTIVELY.
THURSDAY ONWARDS...
MODEL SOLUTIONS QUICKLY DIVERGE STARTING ON THURSDAY, SHOWING VARIED
RESULTS FOR A GENERALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. ANOTHER WAVE MAY
MOVE PAST OUR AREA THURSDAY-FRIDAY, BUT EVEN THAT IS STILL UNCLEAR
AMONGST THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. MORE SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT OVER THE PLAINS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. OTHER DETAILS WILL HAVE TO
BE RESOLVED AS WE MOVE INTO THIS WEEK, BUT THE UNSETTLED PATTERN
REMAINS CONSISTENT AS OF NOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 438 PM MST SUN DEC 22 2024
VFR MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. KCOS AND KPUB WILL
SEE A WIND SHIFT FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COOL FRONT THIS EVENING
WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS BRIEFLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
WINDS AT KALS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ON MONDAY. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...KT
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