917
FXUS65 KPUB 231749
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1049 AM MST MON DEC 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW LIKELY OVER OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TODAY, TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS OUR PLAINS TODAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.
- A QUICK MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM TO BRING SNOW AND RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT.
- PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEK, WITH AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 321 AM MST MON DEC 23 2024
CURRENTLY..
A LOW CAN BE SEEN MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATELLITE
THIS MORNING, WITH A SECONDARY WAVE FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. THIS
SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING IMPACTS TO OUR AREA TODAY, WHILE
THE FIRST FEATURE LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS
OF 2AM, WITH 20S THROUGH THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. SKY CONDITIONS ARE
MOSTLY CLOUDY. WINDS ARE MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY, OR ARE FOLLOWING
NORMAL NIGHTTIME DRAINAGE PATTERNS. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND
LOW 20S.
TODAY AND TONIGHT..
MODELS AGREE THAT THE SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO DIG SOUTH FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DOWN INTO COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
MODELS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED THEIR DRYING TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND
POPS HAVE THUS BEEN CUT BACK A BIT TO REFLECT THIS. STILL, LIGHT
SNOW LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS OVER OUR CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WHERE A COUPLE INCHES OF NEW SNOW
ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ONLY THE HIGHEST PEAKS, MAINLY
NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS. ON THE PLAINS, DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE,
THOUGH WINDS LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENTLY WEAK ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10-
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY THANKS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THIS MORNING, THOUGH MOST OF US WILL STILL BE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS MEANS HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR OUR PLAINS, AND 40S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL ALSO BE COOLER TONIGHT THAN WHAT
WE ARE WAKING UP TO THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE BANANA BELT.
PLAINS LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE 20S, WITH JUST A FEW WARMER
SPOTS IN THE BANANA BELT POSSIBLY MAKING IT INTO THE LOW 30S. THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY LOOKS TO DIP BACK INTO THE LOW TEENS. SNOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL DWINDLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE WAVE PUSHES EAST AND RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD BACK IN OVER THE
AREA.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 321 AM MST MON DEC 23 2024
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY (CHRISTMAS)...LATEST MODEL DATA REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER QUICK MOVING EASTERN PACIFIC SYSTEM
TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REGION CHRISTMAS DAY AND NIGHT. LATEST MODELS,
HOWEVER, CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND STRENGTH OF THE
SYSTEM AS IT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MODELS DO AGREE ON INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND A DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH/NORTHERN ARIZONA BY 12Z WED.
WHERE THIS CIRCULATION GOES THERE AFTER REMAINS IN QUESTION, WITH
THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION DIGGING THE DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS LATE CHRISTMAS
NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS, THOUGH
DOES HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE EPS, GEFS AND GEPS ENSEMBLE MEAN DATA, WHICH
ARE ALL FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION THAN THEIR OPERATIONAL
DATA. THE RATHER WARM AND PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM ALSO LOOKS
TO LIMIT SNOW AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, WITH THE LATEST NBM DATA TRENDING
FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGHEST QPF AND GREATEST SNOWFALL.
WITH THAT SAID, WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW SPREADING INTO THE CONTDVD THROUGH
CHRISTMAS MORNING, WITH SHOWERS SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS THROUGH THE EASTERN MTNS AND I-25 CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS WILL
DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND LOCATION OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AS WELL
AS ITS SURFACE REFLECTION. CURRENTLY, THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUAN MTNS INTO THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MTNS, WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE SYSTEMS LACK OF COLD AIR AND SNOW LEVELS
BETWEEN 5K-6K CHRISTMAS NIGHT WILL LIMIT SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE PLAINS,
THOUGH IF THE CIRCULATION IS FURTHER NORTH, THERE WOULD BE MORE PRECIPITATION
AND SNOW FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE PASSING
CHRISTMAS SYSTEM, MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE NEXT SEVERAL WAVES WHICH
COULD START TO SPREAD SNOW INTO THE CONTDVD THURSDAY, AS MORE EASTERN
PACIFIC ENERGY TRANSLATES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO THE ROCKIES.
WITH SAID MODEL DIFFERENCES AND SEVERAL OTHER SYSTEMS TRANSLATING THROUGH
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION, WE DID NOT STRAY FROM NBM, WHICH
KEEPS POPS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS
THE CONTDVD. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE TEMPERATURES REMAINING AT AND ABOVE
SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MST MON DEC 23 2024
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES (KALS,
KCOS, AND KPUB) THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
(LESS THAN 10 KTS) AND PRIMARILY INFLUENCED BY DIURNAL
WIND FLOW PATTERNS AT ALL TERMINALS. -STEWEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...STEWARD
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