154
FXUS65 KPUB 232121
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
221 PM MST THU JAN 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING UP ON FRIDAY INTO THE 40S, WITH A FEW LOWER 50S OVER
THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.
- NUISANCE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND, AND THEN A POTENTIALLY
IMPACT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST THU JAN 23 2025
CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS
OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER. TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE PLAINS. WINDS ARE GUSTY
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE GRADIENT IS
TIGHTEST, WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. A FEW WIND CHILL READINGS OUT
EAST ARE IN THE TEENS.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM COLORADO.
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSITION NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS UPPER
RIDGING EDGES INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLY THROUGH
MORNING. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN
LEE SLOPES, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO NEAR 20.
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL FALL BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT.
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN ACROSS COLORADO, BECOMING
WESTERLY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ENHANCED MIXING WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES WARM NICELY, WELL INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS. A
COUPLE LOWER 50S MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR
WHERE WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS LOOK STRONGEST (GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH).
MOSTLY 30S ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF COTTONWOOD
PASS BEFORE SUNSET. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
MOZLEY
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST THU JAN 23 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT, AND 700MB FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS UPPER FLOW AND MOISTURE ALOFT, WILL INITIATE THE
SPREAD OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA, STARTING
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND SPREADING EASTWARD. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL, AND BASED OFF MODEL GUIDANCE, THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO COME TO AN END EARLY TO MID-DAY SUNDAY. IT IS WORTH
MENTIONING THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE
SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING ARE LOW AS OF
RIGHT NOW BECAUSE OF THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES AROUND 700MB, BUT IT
ULTIMATELY DEPENDS ON HOW FAST THE COLD AIR GETS HERE. AS FOR CLOUD
COVER, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, AND THEN WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING. TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL THANKS TO THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE IMPACTING OUR REGION BUT
WILL REBOUND ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY - THURSDAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS A
CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA, AND THEN CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT AS THE 700MB RELATIVITY HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
IN THE 80 TO 95% RANGE BASED OFF THE LATEST EURO GUIDANCE. THERE
WILL ALSO BE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WHICH WILL
PROVIDE THE OROGRAPHIC FORCING. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNKNOWNS
WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS THERE ARE STILL A FEW DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN
MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH INCLUDE TRACK, INTENSITY, AND TIMING. CLOUD
COVER DOES LOOK TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, AND REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THEY WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE PLAINS, AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. AS ALWAYS, FOR TUESDAY AND ONWARDS,
IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO BE WEATHER AWARE FOR A POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL
SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 219 PM MST THU JAN 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KTS AND
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MOZLEY
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...CLOUSE
AVIATION...MOZLEY
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