361
FXUS65 KPUB 250546
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1046 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE
REGION.
- LOW CLOUDS AND EXPECTED TOWARDS SUNRISE AND LAST ALL DAY
TOMORROW, SOME LIGHT SNOW (CRYSTALS) POSSIBLE.
- LIGHT SNOW COMES TO AN END SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY.
- DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- SNOW CHANCES RETURN TO THE HIGH COUNTRY ON TUESDAY, AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2025
CURRENTLY...
NEARLY ALL REGIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS HAVE WARMED UP SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH 40S AND 50S MOST REGION. A FEW COLD POCKETS WERE NOTED, MAINLY
ALONG THE ARK RVR FROM EAST OF PUEBLO TO KS. UPPER AND MID ARK RVR
VALLEY HAVE ALSO WARMED UP INTO THE 40S. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WAS
STILL IN THE 20S WITH SOME 30S ON THE MTNS/VALLEY INTERFACE ON THE
WEST SIDE OF THE VALLEY.
NEXT 24 HOURS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SENSIBLE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING, AND ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE
AS LOW CLOUDS WILL ENVELOPE THE PLAINS, AND EXPECT OVERCAST COLD
WEATHER AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WILL DRIP INTO THE TENS ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH TEMPS OF +5
TO NEGATIVE 5 OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.
AS FOR PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD, BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE
CENTRAL MTNS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW, AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS EAST OF THE MTNS TOMORROW (FAR SE PLAINS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY). GIVEN THE SOUNDINGS OVER THE REGION, IT APPEARS ANY
PRECIP THAT DOES FALL OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE ICE CRYSTALS AS THE
LOWER LAYER IS SATURATED, BUT NEARLY ALL OF THE COLUMN IS NEGATIVE -
10C OR LESS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE TRACE TO 1 INCH CATEGORY, WHILE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR IN THE CENTRAL MTNS.
MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE MID 20S OVER THE POPULATION CENTERS WITH
SOME TEMPS IN THE L30S OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. THIS ARCTIC AIR
IS RELATIVELY SHALLOW, SO THE SAN LUIS VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHS
AROUND 40F TOMORROW. \/HODANISH
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2025
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY..
UPSLOPE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND SNOWFALL RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND MOUNTAIN ADJACENT PLAINS. THE LEE OF THE WETS AND THE
RAMPARTS MAY STILL SEE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING, BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, SNOWFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
BEHIND THE PREVIOUS DAY'S COLD FRONT, BUT NOT AS COLD AS THEY COULD
BE THANKS TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MOST OF
OUR PLAINS WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS, WITH NEAR ZERO TEMPS OVER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. SKIES BEGIN TO
CLEAR ON SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 30S ACROSS THE
PLAINS, AND 40S FOR MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. MOST AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY,
THOUGH WE COULD STILL SEE SOME FLURRIES OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, LA GARITAS, AND SAN JUANS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, THANKS TO CONTINUED OROGRAPHICS AS A LOW BUILDS TO
OUR WEST..
MONDAY AND TUESDAY..
OUR FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MONDAY, BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY, AS OUR NEXT LOW STRENGTHENS
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BEGINS TO DIG SOUTH INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND MEXICO. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH SNOW SHOWERS MOVING BACK INTO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE
TUESDAY TIMEFRAME LOOK TO BE LIGHT, GENERALLY 3 INCHES OR LESS, WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE SAN JUANS.
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS..
MODELS CURRENTLY BRING THIS NEXT SYSTEM AND ITS HIGHEST IMPACTS
MAINLY SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME, HIGHEST AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER WITH NEW MEXICO, THOUGH IT DOES LOOK LIKE SNOWFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE PLAINS. ANY SLIGHT SHIFT NORTHWARDS IN
EXPECTED TRACK COULD BRING MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TOTALS INTO OUR
AREA, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. THE EC BRINGS THE
SYSTEM FURTHEST NORTH, EJECTING IT INTO THE PANHANDLE REGION BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND KEEPING CONTINUOUS WRAP AROUND PRECIP OVER OUR
PLAINS FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN A ROW. TEMPERATURES DON'T LOOK TO BE
OVERLY AFFECTED DURING OR AFTER THE SYSTEM. ANY SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH
WOULD RESULT IN EVEN LESS SNOWFALL CHANCES, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MST FRI JAN 24 2025
KALS... VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT (LESS THAN
10KTS) AND VARIABLE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL
BE A BRIEF PERIOD (21Z - 23Z), OF SLIGHTLY BREEZIER WINDS, BUT
WILL NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW HOURS.
KCOS AND KPUB....VFR INTO THE EARLY AM HOURS. FROM 08UTC
ONWARD, THERE WILL BE LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG.
THESE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE TAF SITES AROUND 19Z, AND COULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW
HOURS. THIS COULD PROLONG THE LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITY.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...CLOUSE
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