166
FXUS65 KPUB 251047
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
347 AM MST SAT JAN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
- FLURRIES TO VERY LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, WITH
MINIMAL, IF ANY, IMPACTS.
- WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER INTO TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD INTO THE ROCKIES FOR THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS WITH STORM TRACK TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST SAT JAN 25 2025
TODAY: A COLD AND WINTRY SATURDAY IS EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. ALOFT, WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. WHILE NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS ANTICIPATED WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN, OROGRAPHIC FORCING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE ONGOING. THIS, ALONG WITH MODEST
MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE AREA, WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS, BUT
ESPECIALLY THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST.
ALONG WITH THAT, SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL TAKE ON A MORE
EASTERLY COMPONENT EARLY TO MID MORNING AS COLD AIR BEHIND FRIDAY'S
COLD FRONT FILTERS INTO THE AREA, AND WILL MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SHALLOW
UPSLOPING TO DEVELOP INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE UPSLOPING WINDS, ALBEIT WEAK, AND MOISTENING LOW LEVELS, WILL
ALLOW FOR FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW TO BLOSSOM GENERALLY ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY MID TO
LATE MORNING. ANY SNOW IN THIS LOCALIZED AREA WILL BE LIGHT THOUGH,
WITH AROUND 0.5 INCHES OR LESS OF SNOWFALL, THOUGH THE LEE SIDE OF
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS MAY SEE UP TO AROUND 1 INCHES JUST GIVEN MORE
FOCUSED UPSLOPING. ELSEWHERE THOUGH, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL, THOUGH A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER SPILLING ACROSS THE VALLEYS CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY. OUTSIDE OF ALL OF THAT, LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST,
WITH BREEZY WINDS IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY, ALONG WITH THICK MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO, WITH THICK LOW STRATUS CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THE PLAINS WILL BE THE CHILLIEST, AS
THEY FALL TO WELL BELOW SEASONAL VALUES GIVEN THE FRIDAY COLD FRONT,
WITH MUCH OF THIS AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. ELSEWHERE, NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY EXPERIENCING MORE OF THE ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
GIVEN DOWNSLOPING WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GIVEN ALL OF THAT, THE
VALLEYS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 40S, WITH THE MOUNTAINS
RISING INTO THE 10S TO 20S.
TONIGHT: FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WINTRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE
MOUNTAINS, THOUGH WILL START TO LESS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR OROGRAPHIC FORCING TO PERSIST, AND WITH MODEST
MOISTURE STILL STREAMING OVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. AS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR, FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AS THE EASTERLY WINDS AND WEAK UPSLOPING PERSIST. WITH THAT
SAID THOUGH, THE ALREADY MINOR EASTERLY WINDS AND ASSOCIATED
UPSLOPING WILL WEAKEN FURTHER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WHICH WILL CAUSE ANY FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TO START
LESSENING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH THIS FINAL BIT OF SNOW
OVERNIGHT THOUGH, THE I-25 CORRIDOR INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL
HAVE AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL, WITH UPWARDS TO AROUND 2
INCHES ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS JUST GIVEN MORE FOCUSED
UPSLOPING. ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL,
THOUGH LIKE DURING THE DAY, A SNOW SHOWER PUSHING ACROSS THE VALLEYS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY THE UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
BEYOND ALL OF THAT, LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION, WITH CLOUD COVER SLOWLY LESSENING IN COVERAGE,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE UPSLOPING WEAKENS. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES, A CHILLY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE FRIDAY, WITH MANY FALLING TO AROUND AND BELOW SEASONAL
VALUES, THOUGH THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP LIMIT COOLING POTENTIAL.
WITH THAT ALL SAID, THE PLAINS, VALLEYS, AND MOUNTAINS WILL FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID 10S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 347 AM MST SAT JAN 25 2025
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PROGGED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THROUGH TUESDAY, AS TRAILING ENERGY BEHIND TODAY'S PASSING
WAVE DEVELOPS AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST. DECREASING
MOISTURE WITHIN THE MODEST WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD ON SUNDAY, WITH
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITHIN DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINING
CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CONTDVD AGAIN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD REMAINS GENERALLY
SPOTTY AND LIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WARMING ALOFT AND GENERALLY
LIGHT UPSLOPE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL KEEP SURFACE BASED INVERSIONS
AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN
THE 30S ACROSS THE PLAINS, ALONG WITH 20S, 30S AND 40S EXPECTED
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMING SPREADS EAST INTO TUESDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AT AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND MAINLY 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THE WEST COAST UPPER LOW, WITH MODEL TO MODEL,
AND RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE LATEST
GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE DATA ARE NOW THE FASTEST AND FURTHEST NORTH
WITH THE SYSTEM, OWNING TO ABUNDANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MTNS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITHIN STRONG EAST TO SOUTHEAST
MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS
IS IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE LATEST RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF,
AND CANADIAN MODELS, WHICH HAVE SUPPORT FROM THEIR ENSEMBLE RUNS, BY
TAKING THE UPPER LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INTO OLD MEXICO ON
WEDNESDAY, BEFORE LIFTING OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY, KEEPING THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. TIME WILL TELL WHERE THIS SYSTEM WILL GO,
AND WITH THAT SAID, I DID NOT DEVIATE FROM NBM DATA, WHICH KEEPS
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT AT 347 AM MST SAT JAN 25 2025
KALS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL LESSEN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT, AND
BECOME MORE LIGHT. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH
THICK MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD.
KCOS AND KPUB: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY IN THIS TAF PERIOD,
WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS THICK
STRATUS CLOUDS DEVELOP AND DROP. THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR MUCH OF THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT WILL SLOWLY START TO THIN IN COVERAGE
AND LIFT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH THAT, FLURRIES TO VERY
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE SNOW, REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL, THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWERED VISIBILITY
AROUND 4SM WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED POCKETS OF SNOW.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH
A SLIGHT UPTICK IN MAGNITUDE THIS AFTERNOON.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...SIMCOE
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