730
FXUS65 KPUB 252349
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
449 PM MST SAT JAN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF SNOW OVER THE PUEBLO/GREATER COS REGION INTO THIS
EVENING.
- DRY BUT REMAINING COOL TOMORROW.
- DRY WEATHER WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
-SNOW CHANCES RETURN TO THE HIGH COUNTRY ON TUESDAY, AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST SAT JAN 25 2025
CURRENTLY...
AN AREA OF SNOW HAS PERSISTED OVER A GOOD PART OF EL PASO AND PUEBLO
COUNTIES SINCE EARLIER THIS AM. THIS AREA OF SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH
RATHER IMPRESSIVE LIFT DUE TO WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGION. HOWEVER, THIS GOOD FORCING IS WORKING
WITH A LIMITED AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE MOST FAVORED REGION
IS THE IMMEDIATE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE, AND IT IS THESE LOCATIONS
WHERE OUR HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS ARE BEING REPORTED (~3").
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION NOT REALLY ALL THAT MUCH IS
OCCURRING, IT IS QUITE COLD OVER THE PLAINS WITH MOST AREAS OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE 20S. ALL OF THE PLAINS WERE IN LOW CLOUDS
WITH THE LOW CIGS BANKED UP AGAINST THE MTNS. WARMEST REGION IS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WHERE THE COLD AIR HAS NOT PENETRATED IN,
AND AMBIENT TEMPS OVER THE VALLY WERE GENERALLY IN THE 35 TO 40F
RANGE. THE COLD AIR HAS PUSHED UP ALL OF THE ARK RVR VALLEY AND
TEMPS WERE IN THE 20S FROM BUENA VISTA TO CANON CITY.
NEXT 24 HOURS...
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING HOURS ACROSS EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES, WITH THE HEAVIEST
AMOUNTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MTNS/PLAINS INTERFACE. AS THE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WEAKEN (AND LIFT WEAKENS), SNOW WILL DECREASE, HOWEVER WITH
UPSLOPE CONTINUING, LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS, AND THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS UP (AS
COMPARED TO IF IT WAS CLEAR) AND EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT TO FALL IN THE
10 TO 15F RANGE MOST OF THE PLAINS. MIN TEMPS IN THE MTNS AND
VALLEYS WILL FALL INTO THE ZERO TO 10F RANGE.
TOMORROW...
CLOUDS WILL BE LAST TO CLEAR ACROSS N PUEBLO AND EL PASO COUNTY
AREAS, HOWEVER THESE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY BREAK BY LATE MORNING
AND MOST OF THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. MAX TEMPS
TOMORROW SHOULD RISE INTO THE 30S ACROSS ALL OF THE PLAINS WITH 40S
SLV. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT. \/HODANISH
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST SAT JAN 25 2025
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY..
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AS THE LAST OF OUR POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
AND CLEAR SKIES LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS LOOK TO DIP INTO THE
LOW TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS, WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY. THE SAN LUIS VALLEY WILL BE NEAR
AND JUST BELOW ZERO. CLEAR SKIES PERSIST INTO OUR MONDAY THOUGH,
ALLOWING US TO WARM UP QUICKLY AS OUR FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION FROM
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. HIGHS ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK TO
TOP OUT IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S ACROSS OUR PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS, AS SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A LOW BUILDING TO
OUR WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK AND HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN HIGH
ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AS THE LOW PUSHES INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON TUESDAY, SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL RETURN BACK TO THE FORECAST, THOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE MINIMAL FOR TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
OVER THE SAN JUANS AND LA GARITAS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS..
WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH MODEL-TO-MODEL AND RUN-TO-RUN
INCONSISTENCY WITH REGARDS TO OUR MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM. THE EC
DRAGS THE LOW INTO AZ AND BRINGS SNOW CHANCES INTO OUR AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, EJECTING THE LOW INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING. THE GFS PLACES THE LOW OVER THE AZ/NM/MEXICO BORDER
BY MID-DAY THURSDAY, SPREADING PRECIP ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 50. THE
CANADIAN NOW BRINGS THE SYSTEM DIRECTLY OVER US, SPREADING PRECIP
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ANYTIME AFTER THURSDAY MORNING. THESE
ARE THREE WILDLY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS FOR SNOWFALL CHANCES AND TOTALS
ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF CONSTANTS TO BE FOUND.
THE FIRST CONSTANT WILL BE THAT CHANCES FOR SNOW AND CHANCES FOR
HIGHER TOTALS INCREASE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO ACROSS OUR AREA WITH
EACH OF THESE SOLUTIONS. THE OTHER CONSTANT IS THAT THIS IS A FAIRLY
WARM AND WET SYSTEM, AND TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGHOUT THE EVENT. FOR THIS PACKAGE, I STUCK
WITH THE NBM SOLUTION FOR BOTH POPS AND QPF. WE SHALL SEE HOW THIS
ONE PLAYS OUT, BUT FOR NOW WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THIS SYSTEM'S
TIMING, AMPLITUDE, AND TRACK BECOME MORE DEFINED AND CONSISTENT
ACROSS MULTIPLE MODELS AND MULTIPLE RUNS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 PM MST SAT JAN 25 2025
CHALLENGING SCENARIO WITH SHALLOW UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS
KPUB AND KCOS INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP AFTER 06Z. HAVE EXTENDED IFR CONDITIONS FOR BOTH KCOS
AND KPUB THROUGH 06Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP
DROPPING CIGS AND VIS INTO THE LIFR RANGE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, ESPECIALLY FOR KCOS ON THE SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE. CIGS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK FOR BOTH TAF SITES LASTING
UNTIL AROUND 18Z.
FOR KALS, CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DECREASING TOWARDS 03Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS, THEN PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AROUND 10-15 KTS. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...KT
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