681
FXUS65 KPUB 261735
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1035 AM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTRY MIX OF FLUFFY SNOW, PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE, AND FOG
WILL LINGER INTO THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL BE DRY AND COOL
LATER.
- POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM FOR MID TO LATE WEEK,
BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH STORM TRACK, TIMING AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 332 AM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
CURRENTLY...
MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW HAS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT SNOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
PORTIONS OF EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES. HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW THE
LAST OF THE PRECIPITATION WANING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT AREAS
OF SLIPPERY ROADS AND PATCHY ICE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIM.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE THE
PERSISTENCE OF SNOW ACROSS PUEBLO AND EL PASO COUNTIES. BASED ON
MODEL TRENDS FROM THE LAST 12-24 HOURS, THIS SYSTEM HAS SOMEWHAT
OVER-PERFORMED, THOUGH THE SNOW HAS BEEN FLUFFY, AND OBSERVATIONS
SHOW A SNOW RATIO PRETTY CLOSE TO 10:1. NEWER GUIDANCE AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW LASTING INTO THE MORNING
HOURS, WITH SOME MID-LEVEL OMEGA PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP SNOW
FORMATION GOING. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING,
THE MOISTURE WILL GET PUSHED OUT OF OUR AREA SOMETIME PRIOR TO THIS
AFTERNOON, AS A TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MEANWHILE, A BROAD CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CA
COAST, HELPING TO FUNNEL IN SOME MORE PACIFIC MOISTURE.
OUTSIDE OF THE MORNING WINTRY MIX, CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT THROUGH
THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE MID-30S TO LOW-40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, THOUGH PORTIONS
OF I-25 WITH LINGERING SNOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN AROUND FREEZING.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE COLD, WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS OVER
THE PLAINS WHILE THE SAN LUIS VALLEY DIPS TO JUST BELOW ZERO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 332 AM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING, TRACK AND PRECIPITATION TYPE, AND DETAILS
WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL SIT ACROSS SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK, BRINGING
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE SAN JUAN
RANGE WILL HAVE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY TO SEE SNOWFALL, WITH A
COUPLE INCHES POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. LESS FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS WILL LIMIT SNOW POTENTIAL FROM THE LA GARITA RANGE,
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 BY THE
KANSAS BORDER.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS FROM MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS IS THE FASTEST
SOLUTION, AND FURTHEST NORTH, WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE A
BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER WITH THE UPPER LOW. PRETTY MUCH
EVERY MODEL SOLUTION BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, WITH AREAS ALONG
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE, INTO THE RATON MESA REGION SEEING
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR HIGH QPF AMOUNTS. THE MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE PRECIPITATION TYPE. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL CERTAINTY
SEE SNOW, WITH HEAVY SNOW LIKELY. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS,
MODEL GUIDANCE IS LIKELY ON THE WARM SIDE, WITH LOWER 40S FOR
HIGHS DURING THIS PERIOD. A COUPLE OF THINGS TO CONSIDER...WILL
PRECIPITATION RATES DRIVE SNOW LEVELS DOWN AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
COLDER? THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MAY DO SO. CURRENTLY THINKING, HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, SOUTH INTO THE RATON MESA
AND SAN JUAN RANGE. AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, ABOVE 6000 FEET
COULD ALSO SEE HEAVIER SNOWFALL. FOR AREAS UNDER 6000 FEET,
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL RAIN DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50, MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION. SO, AT THIS POINT, A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE MISSOURI VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND, WITH BROAD NORTH TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS COLORADO. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
AREA TO DRY OUT, AND WARM BACK INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50. MOZLEY
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
FOR KCOS, LOW CIGS (BKN010-ISH) ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ABOUT 20 UTC
TODAY, THEN VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR BOTH
KPUB AND KALS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
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