517
FXUS65 KPUB 270540
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1040 PM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER COLD NIGHT, THEN WARMING UP TOMORROW; DRY NEXT 24
HOURS.
- SNOW CHANCES RETURN TO THE HIGH COUNTRY ON TUESDAY, AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
- WE WARM UP AND DRY OUT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE PLAINS,
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
CURRENTLY...
MOST OF THE REGION WAS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, HOWEVER CLOUDS WERE
LINGERING OVER THE POPULATION CENTERS OF PUEBLO AND THE GREATER
COLORADO SPRINGS REGION. COLDEST AIR OVER THE PLAINS WAS OVER THE
SNOW PACKED/CLOUDY REGIONS (20S) WHILE FARTHER EAST AWAY FROM THE
SNOWPACK TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS (GENERALLY
ABOVE 7000 FEET), TEMPS WERE NOTICEABLY WARMER, WITH TEMPS IN THE
30S. MTN TOPS WERE IN THE 10S.
NEXT 24 HOURS...
CLOUDS OVER THE POPULATION CENTERS SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ALL OF THE REGION BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. WE
SHOULD SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND AREAS WHERE SNOW IS
STILL ON THE GROUND SHOULD SEE TEMPS FALL INTO THE L10S AND SINGLE
DIGITS WITH MID 10S OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY SHOULD SEE THE COLDEST TEMPS WITH VALUES GOING JUST BELOW
ZERO F.
TOMORROW, ALL AREAS WILL WARM UP. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL
TOMORROW OVERALL, BUT MID 40S SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE PLAINS AND
VALLEYS. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT WINDS. OVERALL, WE
SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD SNOWMELT TOMORROW IN AREAS WHERE SNOW FELL
YESTERDAY. \/HODANISH
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY..
NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY, AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL FAVOR SNOW CHANCES OVER OUR SAN JUANS, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO BE MINIMAL FOR TUESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
READINGS OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. MUCH OF PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WILL SEE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 40S, WITH LOW 50S POSSIBLE ON
OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS. WINDS REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT, AND SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR OVER THE PLAINS AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..
MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CONSISTENCY WITH EACH OTHER THIS
AFTERNOON IN REGARDS TO OUR MID-WEEK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THAT SAID,
THERE ARE STILL RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES, AND DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING, TRACK, AND AMPLITUDE BETWEEN MODELS AS WELL. MODELS AGREE
THAT THIS NEXT LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY, AND
EJECTS INTO THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY, KEEPING
PRECIP CHANCES OVER OUR AREA WELL INTO FRIDAY WITH WRAP AROUND. THE
GFS STILL BRINGS THE SYSTEM THE FURTHEST NORTH, AND MOVES THE SYSTEM
INTO OUR AREA THE EARLIEST. THE EC AND CANADIAN ARE STILL FURTHER
SOUTH, BUT HAVE TRENDED A BIT QUICKER AND FURTHER NORTHWARDS IN THE
LAST TWO MODEL RUNS, WHICH IS VERY EVIDENT WHEN EXAMINING THE EPS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS 500MB HEIGHTS/RUN-TO-RUN CHANGE. THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE KEPT WITH THE NBM SOLUTION ONCE AGAIN, WHICH SEEMS TO FAVOR
THE GFS SOLUTION SLIGHTLY. THOUGH MOST SOLUTIONS SPREAD PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING, THE GFS IS MUCH COOLER, SUGGESTING THAT MOST PRECIP WILL
FALL AS WET SNOW. THE EC AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE FURTHER SOUTH
AND WARMER, SUGGESTING THAT WE MIGHT HAVE LOWER SNOW TOTALS AND
HIGHER CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION ON OUR PLAINS. EITHER WAY,
BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL EXIST FURTHER SOUTH OVER OUR SAN
JUANS AND SOUTHERN SAN SANGRES. THE WETS, RATON MESA, AND NORTHERN
SANGRES ARE ALSO LIKELY TO SEE MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION, WITH A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW AND/OR LESSER AMOUNTS OF MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
EVERYWHERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50. AREAS THAT WILL SEE LOWEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW, AND LOWEST TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE OUR
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND OUR PLAINS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, AND WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN DETERMINING
SNOWFALL TOTALS AND PRECIP TYPES AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER. WRAP
AROUND PRECIP EVENTUALLY EXITS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY..
OUR FLOW ALOFT IS BRIEFLY NORTHERLY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM, BUT QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS ON
OUR PLAINS, WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST SUN JAN 26 2025
WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP AT
KCOS AND KPUB. WHILE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OFF THE PALMER DIVIDE
MAY KEEP THE PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THE KCOS TAF
SITE, KPUB MAY SEE A BETTER CHANCE DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS ALONG
THE RIVER VALLEY UNTIL WESTERLY WINDS SETTLE IN MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
WINDS AT ALL THREE TERMINALS. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...KT
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