775
FXUS65 KPUB 271730
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1030 AM MST MON JAN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TODAY.
- AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY
WITH SNOW POSSIBLE. THE SAN JUANS, SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGES AND THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SNOW.
- POSSIBLE WARM UP NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST MON JAN 27 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
OUR AREA WILL BE SOMEWHAT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY, LEADING TO A DRY
AND OVERALL CALM DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER, THOUGH STILL
BELOW AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS.
LOOKING AT TONIGHT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING LOW, WITH SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING OVER THE SAN JUANS AND
PARTS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY AGAIN, STILL
BELOW NORMAL, WITH TEENS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPS
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 342 AM MST MON JAN 27 2025
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER STORM
SYSTEM FOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ALL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN DRIER ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO, AND CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
IMPACT SNOW AMOUNTS.
TUESDAY...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS ARIZONA TUESDAY. WEAK ENERGY EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS THE SAN JUAN RANGE. MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS OF A COUPLE INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE NICE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION, WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEENS
AND 20S ARE FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY, AND LIFT NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
KANSAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DEEP,
NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, AND
THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AS THE UPPER SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TEMPERATURES. LOWERED AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 3-5 DEGREES, WHICH PUTS
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40. THIS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THE ECMWF, BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE GFS. TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY A
KEY ROLE IN SNOW AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON IN THE EVENT. FOR
NOW, HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS LOOK ACROSS THE SAN JUAN RANGE,
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND RATON MESA AREA. ACROSS
THE PLAINS, SNOW LEVELS STILL LOOK TO BE ABOUT 6000 FEET
INITIALLY, FALLING WEDNESDAY EVENING, OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS OVERNIGHT LOWS COOL INTO THE 20S. FLOW LOOKS TO
TRANSITION NORTHERLY, THEN NORTHWESTERLY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM
DEPARTS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CUT OFF UPSLOPE FLOW,
AND ALLOW SNOW TO WIND DOWN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. BY
FRIDAY MORNING, THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE WELL OFF THE EAST. ANY
LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER WILL DISSIPATE BY
MIDDAY. AS FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS, THE SAN JUAN AND SOUTHERN
SANGRES WILL LIKELY DO PRETTY WELL, WITH A FOOT POSSIBLE. THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW INCHES, WITH MOST
OF THE PLAINS SEEING UNDER A COUPLE INCHES. THESE TOTALS ARE
SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CHANGE.
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY...WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WHERE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY ACROSS THE REGION WITH 50S, TO
EVEN A FEW LOW 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MOZLEY
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1023 AM MST MON JAN 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE NEAR CERTAIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOUR AT ALL 3
TAF SITES, KPUB, KALS AND KCOS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH
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