918
FXUS65 KPUB 280541
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1041 PM MST MON JAN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A BIT WARMER TOMORROW WITH SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
SAN JUANS.
- SNOW CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS, ALONG WITH
THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.
- WE WARM UP AND DRY OUT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE PLAINS,
WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST MON JAN 27 2025
CURRENTLY...
SKIES WERE CLEAR NEARLY ALL AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION. THE ONLY AREAS WHERE SOME CLOUDS WERE NOTED WERE GENERALLY
OVER THE SAN JUANS. TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WERE
GENERALLY WELL INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS WITH 40S AND A FEW 50S IN THE
BANANA BELT REGIONS.
ON THE LARGER SCALE, A RATHER DRY BUT IMPRESSIVE 500 MB CIRCULATIONS
WAS NOTED OVER THE GREATER LAS VEGAS REGION.
TONIGHT...
DRY WITH LIGHT WINDS ALL AREAS. OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE "COL"
POINT WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR SW AND NW FLOW TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WINDS AT MTN TOP LEVEL WILL BE QUITE WEAK. TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF THINGS, BUT NOT NEARLY AS
COLD AS THE LAST SEVERAL NIGHT. LOW WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 10S
WITH SOME SINGLE DIGITS LARGER VALLEYS.
TOMORROW...
MID LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH EAST BUT THE SYSTEM IS SIGNIFICANTLY LACKING
IN MOISTURE. I INTRODUCED SOME LOW END SCATTERED POPS IN THE SAN
JUANS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND THIS MAY BE A STRETCH. OTHERWISE, ALL
OTHER AREAS ARE DRY WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. NBM MAX TEMPS
CAME IN RATHER COLD SO I RAISED TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES, AND HAVE
MAINLY TEMPS AROUND 50F FOR THE PLAINS AND 40S FOR THE VALLEYS.
\/HODANISH
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM MST MON JAN 27 2025
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY..
MODELS STILL SHOW SOME TRACK AND TIMING DISAGREEMENT WITH A LOW
TRACKING MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGHOUT THIS TIMEFRAME, THOUGH IT
DOES SEEM CERTAIN THAT IMPACTFUL SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE CONTINUED
TO TREND COOLER WITH NEWER MODEL RUNS, BUT THIS SYSTEM REMAINS WARM
OVERALL.
FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY..A LULL IN SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH SNOW INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS ROBUST SUBTROPICAL JET
SUPPORT, AND IS A FAIRLY WARM SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THUS, SNOW RATIOS ARE LOW, AND WATER CONTENT WILL BE FAIRLY
HIGH WITH MEANINGFUL WET SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY.
SNOWFALL RATES PICK UP IN EARNEST AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR THIS REASON, A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAN
JUANS, THE SANGRES, AND THE WET MOUNTAINS, FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE UPWARDS OF A
10 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
HEAVY AND WET AT TIMES. EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF
THE SAN JUANS PUSHED THE DECISION TO GO WITH A WATCH FOR THEM, AS
OPPOSED TO AN ADVISORY, THOUGH THIS MAY BE DOWNGRADED TO AN ADVISORY
WITH LATER PACKAGE RUNS DEPENDING ON TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY THROUGH AREA MOUNTAIN PASSES. IF THIS
SYSTEM'S TRACK BEGINS TO TREND FURTHER NORTHWARD, IT WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR OTHER AREAS TO NEED HIGHLIGHTS AS WELL. FOR NOW, THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PIKES PEAK REGION, THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, AND
THE LA GARITAS ARE ALL LOOKING TO SEE IN GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
SNOW OR LESS.
FOR THE PLAINS..WE REMAIN DRY ON THE PLAINS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SNOW SPREADING INTO THE SOUTHERN I-25
CORRIDOR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. SNOW CONTINUES
TO SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW
MIX ACROSS OUR EASTERN PLAINS AND UP INTO THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY AS FAR WEST AS PUEBLO. ALL OTHER AREAS ARE LIKELY TO SEE
EVERYTHING FALLING AS SNOW. HIGHEST TOTALS FOR BOTH LIQUID CONTENT
AND SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN CONCENTRATED OVER OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AND THE
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR IN PARTICULAR. AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 ARE
CURRENT FORECAST TO SEE AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES OR LESS, WITH AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 COMING IN CLOSER TO 3 TO 5, ESPECIALLY
FURTHER WEST NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY FOR THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE, AND FOR ALL OF THURSDAY, WITH IMPROVEMENT
LIKELY BY FRIDAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM EJECTS. THERE
ARE SEVERAL UNKNOWNS STILL, INCLUDING THE EXACT TIMING AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM, ALONG WITH EXPECTED TEMPERATURES. ALL OF THESE ARE
CURRENTLY NOT WELL RESOLVED BY MODELS, AND ALL WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS TO EXPECTED PRECIP TYPES AND SNOWFALL TOTALS AS THE EVENT
DRAWS NEARER. AREAS THAT MIGHT NEED HIGHLIGHTS DEPENDING ON NEW
MODEL RUNS INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HUERFANO, PUEBLO, AND
WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTIES, ALONG WITH THE WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY..
OUR FLOW ALOFT QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AHEAD OF ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS ON OUR PLAINS, WITH
CHANCES FOR LIGHT OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL OVER THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM TO
NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL VALUES THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S, AND EVEN SOME 60S, LIKELY FOR THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
TIMEFRAME. A PATTERN CHANGE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER POTENTIAL SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1037 PM MST MON JAN 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH KALS SEEING THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
10-15 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ067-068-072>075-079-080.
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...KT
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