223
FXUS65 KPUB 281105
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
405 AM MST TUE JAN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY TODAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. SNOW MOVES INTO THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT.
- STILL A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OVER THE SAN JUAN, SOUTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS. LOW CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
- DRIER, WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST TUE JAN 28 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ANOTHER DRY, QUIET DAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, AS AN UPPER LOW
SPINS TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS SE COLORADO.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM TO YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA AND 50S OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
LOOKING AT THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THE
INCOMING UPPER-LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION, THOUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE
MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF IT IS QUITE DRY. LEFT SOME LOW
POPS IN THE SAN JUANS, MAINLY FOR TONIGHT, BUT LITTLE IS EXPECTED.
THE LOW MEANDERS A BIT FURTHER EAST TONIGHT, BRINGING IN SOME MORE
MOIST AIR AND INITIATING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS.
INITIAL AMOUNTS AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL, WITH 1-3 INCHES
POSSIBLE OVER THE WOLF CREEK AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND LIGHTER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. A DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN SLIPPERY ROADS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CHILLY ONCE AGAIN, WITH 20S TO TEENS OVER THE
PLAINS AND TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST TUE JAN 28 2025
MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO ALIGNMENT WITH THE TRACK OF AN
UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ALL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SHIFTED THE TRACK NORTH, AND THE 00Z RUNS HAVE COME IN DRIER
THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLES. DID NOT MAKE CHANGES TO THE WINTER
STORM WATCH THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAN JUANS, SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE AND WET MOUNTAINS AT THIS TIME, WITH CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO, AND LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND FINALLY INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE,
AND WILL HIGHLY IMPACT SNOW POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ON WEDNESDAY, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 30S (NAM), INTO THE MID 40S (ECMWF). CONTINUED TO
SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND HAVE MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S, WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE
LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY, TO THE KANSAS BORDER. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLIER IN THE DAY,
COOLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES AND
PRECIPITATION SETS IN. HIGH ELEVATION SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, PEAKING
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. WILL TEMPERATURES COOL
ENOUGH FOR MOSTLY SNOW ON THE PLAINS, OR WILL THEY REMAIN TOO
WARM FOR SNOW? THAT IS THE QUESTION WE WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AT.
AS TEMPERATURES COOL WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ANY AREAS THAT ARE SEEING
RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. BUT, THE UPPER DYNAMICS WITH
THE LOW WILL DIMINISH, AS THE LOW TRACK INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO
AND FLOW INCREASES FROM THE NORTH. MODELS DEVELOP A BAND OF
PRECIPITATION FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE, SOUTHEAST TO THE KANSAS
BORDER, WITH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS, NEARING A HALF INCH THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN, TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN, AS TEMPERATURES RISE BACK THROUGH THE 30S AND LOWER
40S. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ALSO LOOK POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER SYSTEM DRIFTS EASTWARD. THE STRONG NORTH
FLOW WILL DOWNSLOPE ACROSS THE PLAINS, HELPING TO SHUT OFF
PRECIPITATION. THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER FRIDAY MORNING. FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSITION ON FRIDAY, BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY, BRINGING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN COLORADO. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON
ANY SNOW COVER, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, TO
PERHAPS A FEW LOW 50S OUT EAST.
AS FOR SNOWFALL, THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN HEAVIER SNOW REMAINS
OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE, SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS,
WHERE 10 PLUS INCHES ARE FORECAST. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS,
ALMOST ALL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH LESSER AMOUNTS, AND
AGAIN, WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON TEMPERATURES. FOR THE MOST PART,
THE PLAINS WILL GENERALLY SEE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE 00Z CYCLE
GUIDANCE DOES PUT A HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS TELLER AND EL PASO
COUNTIES, BUT DON'T HAVE CONFIDENCE IN TOTALS OVER THAT AREA
JUST YET. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FLAT UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS COLORADO, WITH BROAD
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE MAIN JET ENERGY WILL BE
WELL TO OUR NORTH, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO. A FEW PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, MAINLY NORTH OF
COTTONWOOD PASS. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE MINOR. WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL HELP MIXING AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ALONG THE LEE SLOPES AND GAP WIND PRONE AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BACK ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY, WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOZLEY
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 340 AM MST TUE JAN 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALS, KCOS, AND KPUB THROUGH 24
HOURS. SOME SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ADJACENT TO KALS NEAR THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, BUT
AS OF NOW NOTHING IS EXPECTED CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL UNTIL LATER
WEDNESDAY.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR COZ067-068-072>075-079-080.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
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