422
FXUS65 KPUB 290546
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1046 PM MST TUE JAN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES GO INTO EFFECT EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING OVER THE SAN JUANS, SANGRE DO CRISTOS, AND WET
MOUNTAINS, WHERE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ARE EXPECTED.
EXPECT DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THESE
AREAS, ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN PASSES.
- LESSER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, THOUGH TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
HEAVIEST OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE, THE SOUTHERN SANGRES, AND
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WET MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND EAST OF I-25 BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY MAY LIMIT TRAVEL IMPACTS.
- STILL WATCHING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY, WIND-DRIVEN SNOW
OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THURSDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS SILL
ONLY LOW TO MODERATE (30-50 PERCENT) THAT THIS WILL OCCUR. |
- DRIER AND WARMER FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST TUE JAN 28 2025
CURRENTLY..
OUR APPROACHING LOW CAN BEEN SEEN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PRESENT
OVER COLORADO. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S OVER OUR
PLAINS AND MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WINDS ARE MAINLY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S, WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT..
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, EXPECT CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES AND
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH MILD/NEAR NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS
AHEAD OF OUR APPROACHING SYSTEM AS SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. MANY
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S TONIGHT, WITH SOME
SINGLE DIGITS OVER HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. LIGHT SNOW BEGINS OVER THE
SAN JUANS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
SNOWFALL RATES AND COVERAGE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
TOMORROW.
WEDNESDAY..
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM,
THOUGH THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE FURTHEST NORTH AND FASTEST, WITH
THE CANADIAN FURTHEST SOUTH AND SLOWEST, AND THE EC AND NAM
SOMEWHERE IN-BETWEEN. THESE INCONSISTENCIES IN TRACK AND PROGRESSION
CONTINUE TO PLAGUE SNOWFALL FORECASTS, THOUGH IT IS BECOMING EVEN
MORE CERTAIN THAT HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE CONCENTRATED FURTHER SOUTH,
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE INITIAL PUSH OF PRECIP CHANCES. SNOW
BEGINS IN EARNEST OVER THE SAN JUANS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
SPREADING NORTH AND EASTWARDS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS. SNOW CHANCES PUSH INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
AND OUT INTO THE PLAINS BY MID-AFTERNOON. ANOTHER MAJOR FORECAST
CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE OUR TEMPERATURES. MOST
GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY WARM THROUGHOUT THE EVENT,
ESPECIALLY ON OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND UP INTO THE LOWER ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY. THESE AREAS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE RAIN
INSTEAD OF SNOW FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WITHOUT A DECENT COLD LAYER TO
WORK WITH, CHANCES FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION LOOK LIMITED, THOUGH WE
COULD SEE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION AS RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW FOR
THESE AREAS. WARM ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY AID IN REDUCING
TRAVEL IMPACTS EARLY IN THE DAY FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, THOUGH ONCE
THE SUN DIPS BEHIND THE MOUNTAINS AND SNOWFALL RATES BEGIN TO
INCREASE, WE COULD SEE SOME SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS OVER OUR
PLAINS BEGINNING TOMORROW EVENING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER
THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR AND THE PALMER DIVIDE. EXPECT TRAVEL
IMPACTS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH TOMORROW AS WELL, ESPECIALLY
FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS, WHERE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES GO INTO EFFECT AT 5AM WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. OUR SAN JUANS, SANGRES, AND WET
MOUNTAINS ARE ALL UNDER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES THROUGH THIS TIME
PERIOD, AND CAN ALL EXPECTED TO SEE UPWARDS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THESE AREAS. EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS AND SANGRES
COULD STILL SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 PM MST TUE JAN 28 2025
UPPER LOW LIFTS FROM NEW MEXICO INTO SERN COLORADO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, THEN SLOWLY TURNS EASTWARD INTO KANSAS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HEAVIEST SNOW AT MANY LOCATIONS WILL BE OVERNIGHT WED
INTO THU MORNING, BEFORE ACTIVITY TAPERS OFF OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND EAST SLOPES DURING THE DAY AS FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
TURNS MORE NWLY. TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THE TROWAL/WRAP AROUND BAND DEVELOPING ON
THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY THU, AS COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY SNOW COULD CREATE DIFFICULT TRAVEL. STILL A GOOD DEAL
OF MODEL VARIANCE REGARDING STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE TROWAL
(ROUGH CONSENSUS IS FROM PUEBLO NORTHWARD), WITH MARGINALLY WARM
SURFACE TEMPS (COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW, BUT COULD HANG OUT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING, LIMITING ACCUMS) ADDING AN ELEMENT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS WELL. WON'T ISSUE ANY NEW HIGHLIGHTS YET FOR THU,
BUT MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE AT SOME POINT AS
SEVERAL MODEL/ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A
TOUGH COMMUTE BETWEEN COS AND DEN THU AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CONTINUED TO GO ON THE COLD SIDE OF MOST GUIDANCE FOR THU TEMPS,
GIVEN COLD/SNOW, THOUGH SUSPECT MANY AREAS ON THE PLAINS WILL
END UP AT LEAST A FEW DEGF ABOVE FREEZING, POTENTIALLY LEADING
TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS PRECIP INTENSITY WANES. OVERALL, STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL HAS DECREASED WITH THIS SYSTEM VERSUS 24 HRS AGO,
THOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME OVERPERFORMANCE IN SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ALONG I-25/ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE SOME POTENTIAL
BANDING MAY OCCUR.
ONCE SYSTEM DEPARTS, FLAT WRN RIDGE BUILDS WITH A QUICK RETURN
TO MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MST TUE JAN 28 2025
VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH CLOUD DECKS LOWERING
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL THREE TERMINALS. -SHSN WILL SPREAD UP
FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE TERMINALS AFTER 21Z WITH VCSH AT KCOS
AND KPUB, AND MORE STEADIER -SN AT KALS AFTER 00Z. CONDITIONS
WILL DROP INTO THE HIGH END MVFR CATEGORY AFTER 00Z AND IFR
CATEGORY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL SPREAD
INTO KCOS AND KPUB WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TOWARDS
THURSDAY AM. -KT
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 PM MST
THURSDAY FOR COZ067-068-072>075-079-080.
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...KT
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