585
FXUS65 KPUB 291056
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
356 AM MST WED JAN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING SNOW
TO THE MOUNTAINS, AND THEN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- FLAT, ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER, WARMER CONDITIONS
TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST WED JAN 29 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TODAY, BRINGING IN SYNOPTIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTER WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. SNOW SHOWERS WILL INITIATE
ACROSS THE PEAKS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS MORNING, SPREADING
TO THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AFTERNOON,
SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO PARTS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR, WHILE INCOMING
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIATES RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN PLAINS.
AS WE TRACK THE INITIAL ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM, THE SPEED AND
POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CRUCIAL TO BOTH SNOWFALL RATES
AND TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS. SOME MODELS HAVE HAD THIS SYSTEM COME IN
DRIER, WHILE OTHERS SHOW A GOOD FETCH OF BOTH MOIST PACIFIC AIR AS
WELL AS AIR FROM THE GULF. ADDITIONALLY, THE ORIENTATION OF MID-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHETHER HEAVIER
BANDS OF SNOW FORM, AND IF SO WHERE THEY FORM. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT
SNOW AMOUNTS, WHILE BETTER RESOLVED IN THE DATA THAN THE LAST FEW
DAYS, ARE STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE, AS SOME AREAS UNDER BANDS COULD
BE SEEING LOCALLY HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IMPORTANT OVER OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS IN REGARDS TO A
RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION. LOOKING AT RECENT TRENDS, THE SYSTEM APPEARS
MUCH DRIER THAN IT DID 24 HOURS AGO, AND SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED TO COMPENSATE.
AS OF NOW, MODEL CONSENSUS PUTS THE HEAVIEST SNOW TOWARDS THE SOUTH,
MAINLY THE SAN JUANS, SOUTHERN SANGRES, AND PARTS OF THE RATON MESA
AND NORTHERN SANGRES. HOWEVER, SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO BEING
RESOLVED IN AND AROUND TELLER COUNTY, DUE TO SOME UPSLOPING ON THE
PALMER DIVIDE.
SNOW TOTALS OVER THE PLAINS STILL VARY A BIT DEPENDING ON THE
POSITIONING AND MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE LOW, AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BACKED OFF ON MOISTURE CONSIDERABLY OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
I-25 AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MORE SNOW THAN
LOCATIONS OUT EAST, AS WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
INITIALLY HAVE THINGS STARTING AS RAIN. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL
BE RATHER QUICK, LIKELY JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AND MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE LAMAR AREA. AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE KS BORDER MAY SEE
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION, AS THE TEMPERATURES THERE WILL STAY
ABOVE FREEZING FOR LONGER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT, GIVEN THE DEPTH OF
THE COLD AIR MOVING IN WITH THE LOW, FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS
UNLIKELY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST WED JAN 29 2025
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD ONCE
THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. FLAT RIDGING AND ZONAL FLOW
LOOKS TO PREVAIL ALONG WITH DRY, WARMER CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE SITTING OVER
EASTERN COLORADO, AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS
BY THURSDAY EVENING. WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IN INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PEG THE PALMER DIVIDE, SOUTH ALONG
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, INTO THE RATON MESA INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES, AND HOW THEY
WILL IMPACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF
THE PALMER DIVIDE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR THE PLAINS, WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE
AROUND 6 KFT. FOR AREAS BELOW 6 KFT, A RAIN AND SNOW MIX MAY BE
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY, WITH RAIN MORE LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON. BUT, WITH NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS, PRECIPITATION
MAY BE LIMITED FROM COLORADO SPRINGS, SOUTH INTO PUEBLO,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE. DID NOT MAKE
AREAL CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WITH 4 TO 9 INCHES
EXPECTED OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE, SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE AND WET MOUNTAINS. TELLER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EL PASO
COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE NEAR ADVISORY AMOUNTS THURSDAY MORNING,
BUT WITH MODELS QPF AMOUNTS VARYING SO MUCH, DID NOT HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING ONE AT THIS TIME. JUST KEEP IN MIND THAT
TRAVEL OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE SNOWY AND
PLAN ACCORDINGLY. THE RATON MESA REGION WILL SEE SNOW LATER IN
THE DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES KEEPING AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCHES
RANGE. FOR THE REST OF THE PLAINS, MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW, WITH A
MIX OF RAINFALL. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT, PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLAT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO ZONAL
WESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING FRIDAY AND PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WHERE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS. MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ENHANCED MIXING ALONG THE LEE
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM
THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
ALSO BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR, ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT TO BACK ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THE GFS BACKS IT IN ON TUESDAY AND PERSISTS INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS BOUNDARY WITH LESS
COLD AIR. DID NOT STRAY FROM THE NBM MAX TEMPERATURES WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOZLEY
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST WED JAN 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING,
BUT AN INCOMING WINTER SYSTEM WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE AREA STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE KALS
AREA FIRST, LIKELY PRIOR TO 00Z THIS EVENING, WHILE KCOS AND KPUB
WON'T SEE PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR TO IFR CIGS
WILL BE EXPECTED ONCE THE SNOW MOVES IN, WITH PERIODS OF VIS LIMITED
TO LOW MVFR INTO IFR. WILL MONITOR NEW DATA FOR ANY POTENTIAL FOG,
BUT AS OF NOW MOST OF THE IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO THE CIGS
AND PRECIPITATION.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ067-068-
072>075-079-080.
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page