570  
FXUS65 KPUB 291742  
AFDPUB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO  
1042 AM MST WED JAN 29 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- A WINTER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING SNOW  
TO THE MOUNTAINS, AND THEN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
- FLAT, ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING DRIER, WARMER CONDITIONS  
TO THE REGION FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST WED JAN 29 2025  
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT...  
 
A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION  
TODAY, BRINGING IN SYNOPTIC LIFT AND MOISTURE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF  
WINTER WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. SNOW SHOWERS WILL INITIATE  
ACROSS THE PEAKS OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS MORNING, SPREADING  
TO THE REST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AFTERNOON,  
SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO PARTS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR, WHILE INCOMING  
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST INITIATES RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR  
EASTERN PLAINS.  
 
AS WE TRACK THE INITIAL ONSET OF THIS SYSTEM, THE SPEED AND  
POSITIONING OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE CRUCIAL TO BOTH SNOWFALL RATES  
AND TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS. SOME MODELS HAVE HAD THIS SYSTEM COME IN  
DRIER, WHILE OTHERS SHOW A GOOD FETCH OF BOTH MOIST PACIFIC AIR AS  
WELL AS AIR FROM THE GULF. ADDITIONALLY, THE ORIENTATION OF MID-  
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHETHER HEAVIER  
BANDS OF SNOW FORM, AND IF SO WHERE THEY FORM. ALL THIS TO SAY THAT  
SNOW AMOUNTS, WHILE BETTER RESOLVED IN THE DATA THAN THE LAST FEW  
DAYS, ARE STILL SUBJECT TO CHANGE, AS SOME AREAS UNDER BANDS COULD  
BE SEEING LOCALLY HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE IMPORTANT OVER OUR FAR EASTERN PLAINS IN REGARDS TO A  
RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION. LOOKING AT RECENT TRENDS, THE SYSTEM APPEARS  
MUCH DRIER THAN IT DID 24 HOURS AGO, AND SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN  
ADJUSTED TO COMPENSATE.  
 
AS OF NOW, MODEL CONSENSUS PUTS THE HEAVIEST SNOW TOWARDS THE SOUTH,  
MAINLY THE SAN JUANS, SOUTHERN SANGRES, AND PARTS OF THE RATON MESA  
AND NORTHERN SANGRES. HOWEVER, SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO BEING  
RESOLVED IN AND AROUND TELLER COUNTY, DUE TO SOME UPSLOPING ON THE  
PALMER DIVIDE.  
 
SNOW TOTALS OVER THE PLAINS STILL VARY A BIT DEPENDING ON THE  
POSITIONING AND MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE LOW, AND RECENT MODEL TRENDS  
HAVE BACKED OFF ON MOISTURE CONSIDERABLY OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.  
I-25 AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MORE SNOW THAN  
LOCATIONS OUT EAST, AS WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL  
INITIALLY HAVE THINGS STARTING AS RAIN. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL  
BE RATHER QUICK, LIKELY JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AND MAINLY ALONG AND  
WEST OF THE LAMAR AREA. AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE KS BORDER MAY SEE  
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION, AS THE TEMPERATURES THERE WILL STAY  
ABOVE FREEZING FOR LONGER. IT DOES APPEAR THAT, GIVEN THE DEPTH OF  
THE COLD AIR MOVING IN WITH THE LOW, FREEZING PRECIPITATION IS  
UNLIKELY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 336 AM MST WED JAN 29 2025  
 
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD ONCE  
THE UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. FLAT RIDGING AND ZONAL FLOW  
LOOKS TO PREVAIL ALONG WITH DRY, WARMER CONDITIONS.  
 
THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO BE SITTING OVER  
EASTERN COLORADO, AND WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS  
BY THURSDAY EVENING. WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IN INCREASING  
NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PEG THE PALMER DIVIDE, SOUTH ALONG  
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS, INTO THE RATON MESA INTO THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE TEMPERATURES, AND HOW THEY  
WILL IMPACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF  
THE PALMER DIVIDE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM  
THE LOWER 30S TO NEAR 40 FOR THE PLAINS, WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE  
AROUND 6 KFT. FOR AREAS BELOW 6 KFT, A RAIN AND SNOW MIX MAY BE  
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY, WITH RAIN MORE LIKELY IN THE  
AFTERNOON. BUT, WITH NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS, PRECIPITATION  
MAY BE LIMITED FROM COLORADO SPRINGS, SOUTH INTO PUEBLO,  
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE. DID NOT MAKE  
AREAL CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, WITH 4 TO 9 INCHES  
EXPECTED OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE, SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO  
RANGE AND WET MOUNTAINS. TELLER COUNTY AND NORTHERN EL PASO  
COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE NEAR ADVISORY AMOUNTS THURSDAY MORNING,  
BUT WITH MODELS QPF AMOUNTS VARYING SO MUCH, DID NOT HAVE  
CONFIDENCE IN ISSUING ONE AT THIS TIME. JUST KEEP IN MIND THAT  
TRAVEL OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE SNOWY AND  
PLAN ACCORDINGLY. THE RATON MESA REGION WILL SEE SNOW LATER IN  
THE DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES KEEPING AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCHES  
RANGE. FOR THE REST OF THE PLAINS, MAYBE AN INCH OF SNOW, WITH A  
MIX OF RAINFALL. AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY  
NIGHT, PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END ACROSS THE PLAINS AND  
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLAT RIDGING WILL LEAD TO ZONAL  
WESTERLY FLOW BEGINNING FRIDAY AND PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEK.  
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE  
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, WHERE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE  
THROUGH THE PERIOD NORTH OF COTTONWOOD PASS. MINOR SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ENHANCED MIXING ALONG THE LEE  
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM  
THROUGH THE 50S AND INTO THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL  
ALSO BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO WIND PRONE AREAS ALONG THE I-25  
CORRIDOR, ALONG WITH SOME AREAS OF NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER  
CONDITIONS. THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT  
WEEK IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT TO BACK ACROSS THE  
PLAINS. THE GFS BACKS IT IN ON TUESDAY AND PERSISTS INTO  
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS BOUNDARY WITH LESS  
COLD AIR. DID NOT STRAY FROM THE NBM MAX TEMPERATURES WITH  
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MOZLEY  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1039 AM MST WED JAN 29 2025  
 
FOR KCOS AND KPUB..VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF  
THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW, DEGRADED  
VISIBILITIES, AND LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN GENERALLY  
AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING, AND ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE  
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SNOW REMAINS OVER BOTH STATIONS  
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WITH  
STRONG NORTH WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW CONTINUING INTO THE  
AFTERNOON TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY AT KCOS. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO  
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR TOMORROW MORNING.  
 
FOR KALS..MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MAJORITY  
OF THIS TAF PERIOD, BEGINNING AFTER 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW  
CHANCES, LOW CEILINGS, AND DEGRADED VISIBILITIES ARE ALL LIKELY TO  
PERSIST INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WITH IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AFTER 18Z  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ067-068-  
072>075-079-080.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO  
LONG TERM...MOZLEY  
AVIATION...EHR  
 
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