723
FXUS65 KPUB 300311
AFDPUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
811 PM MST WED JAN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT FOR TELLER COUNTY, EL
PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 5PM THURSDAY
OVER THE SAN JUANS, THE SANGRES, AND THE WET MOUNTAINS, WHERE
TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY THROUGH LA
VETA AND WOLF CREEK PASSES.
- OTHER THAN OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW, DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE AREA FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
- WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 756 PM MST WED JAN 29 2025
QUICK LOOK AT 00Z DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST FAIRLY STOUT TROWAL
OVER EL PASO/PUEBLO COUNTIES FROM SUNRISE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NRN AND ERN EL PASO COUNTY. SOME CONCERN THAT
STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND POTENTIAL CONVECTION (HRRR
SHOWS SOME STRONG CONVECTION IN PUEBLO COUNTY AROUND 12Z) WILL
OVERCOME BRISK DOWNSLOPE FLOW FOR A FEW HOURS THU MORNING,
LEADING TO A PERIOD OF WIND DRIVEN HEAVY SNOW AS FAR SOUTH AS
PUEBLO FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. EASTERN EL PASO COUNTY
COULD SEE ESPECIALLY DIFFICULT TRAVEL, WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY. WHILE TOTAL SNOWFALL IN PUEBLO AND
COLORADO SPRINGS COULD STILL END UP ON THE LOW SIDE OF ADVISORY
LEVELS AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN ULTIMATE BAND LOCATION, TIMING
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARGUE FOR SOME SORT OF HIGHLIGHT. WILL
EXPAND WINTER WX ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL OF PUEBLO/EL PASO
COUNTIES AT THIS POINT (CONSIDERED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR
NRN EL PASO, BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW) AND BUMP UP SNOW AMOUNTS AT
LEAST AN INCH OR TWO. ELSEWHERE, FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK AND
WON'T MAKE ANY CHANGES. UPDATED GRIDS/FORECASTS/PRODUCTS OUT
SHORTLY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST WED JAN 29 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLOUD COVER INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO, WITH OUR LOW MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO. SNOW
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN IN PLACE OVER THE SAN JUANS SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD INTO OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 30S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN,
WITH LOW TO MID 40S OVER A MAJORITY OF THE PLAINS AS OF 1PM.
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S AND ARE CLIMBING.
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT..
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THE UPPER LOW INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO/OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE REGION THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE TRACK WILL SPREAD RAIN AND
SNOW CHANCES OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO OUR PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WITH ALL LOCATIONS TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THOUGH FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE DO NOT
LOOK LIKELY FOR US, WE MIGHT SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN/SNOW MIX BETWEEN
THE TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW THIS EVENING, MAINLY OUT ON OUR FAR
EASTERN PLAINS AND UP INTO THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY, WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMEST. MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS LOOK TO DIP DOWN
INTO THE MID 20S, WITH TEENS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. SNOWFALL RATES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY, THE SAN JUANS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
THEIR HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH SNOW
TAPERING OFF THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
TOMORROW..
ONE OF THE MOST DIFFICULT PORTIONS OF THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN NAILING
DOWN POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE TROWAL FOR TOMORROW. MODELS HAVE
CONTINUED TO PUSH THIS FEATURE BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE STATE,
THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN GROWING CERTAINTY WRAP AROUND SNOWFALL OVER
THE PIKES PEAK REGION FOR THE PAST TWO MODEL RUNS. FOR THAT REASON,
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR NORTHERN EL PASO AND
TELLER COUNTIES FROM 2AM THROUGH 2PM THURSDAY. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS, WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN
SNOWFALL TOTALS SETTING UP OVER THE COLORADO SPRINGS AREA DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING WINDS. IN GENERAL, LOCATIONS SOUTH OF WOODMEN ROAD CAN
EXPECT TO SEE LESS THAN 3 INCHES, WITH AREAS NORTH OF THERE
EXPECTING HIGHER AMOUNTS. FOR THE PIKE PEAK REGION, ALL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL AS SNOW THANKS TO COLDER
TEMPERATURES. WINDS INCREASE THROUGHOUT TOMORROW MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH AND HIGHWAY 50. BLOWING SNOW, DEGRADED VISIBILITY, AND
SLICK ROADS ARE LIKELY TO LEAD TO TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM THIS EVENING
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE.
OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW, WITH 5 TO 9 INCHES OF NEW SNOW EXPECTED
OVER THE SANGRES AND THE WET MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH LA VETA PASS AND WOLF CREEK PASS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM MST WED JAN 29 2025
THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY: FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND, QUIETER WEATHER
STARTS TO PREVAIL FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. THE
CUT-OFF LOW THAT BROUGHT INCLEMENT WEATHER TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL BE QUICKLY EXITING THURSDAY EVENING, WITH A RIDGE
PUSHING OVER THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH BOTH FORCING
AND MOISTURE LESSENING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, ANY SHOWERS
PRESENT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE MID TO LATE THURSDAY EVENING, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL TO AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, WITH FRIDAY
BRINGING THE FIRST DAY OF A QUICK WARMUP TO ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES AS
DOWNSLOPING WINDS MATERIALIZE.
SATURDAY - TUESDAY: FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD,
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BECOME ZONAL.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PATTERN IS HIGH (70%) GIVEN STRONG AGREEMENT
BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE. WHILE NO MAJOR FORCING IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN, OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING ALONG CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS
OROGRAPHIC FORCING, ALONG WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE
AREA, WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, THE WEEKEND IS ANTICIPATED TO BRING WELL
ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AS DOWNSLOPING WINDS
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA. THEN FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BIG QUESTION
MARKS ARISE IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH HOW TO HANDLE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT AS IT SPILLS ACROSS THE PLAINS. IF THIS FEATURE PUSHES
SOUTHWARD, COOLER AIR, WITH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO AROUND AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL VALUES, WOULD BE EXPECTED, BUT IF THE
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLIES PREVAIL, THAN THE ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE. WITH THAT ALL SAID THOUGH, COLD AIR TENDS TO PUSH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS, SO THIS MAY BECOME A
SCENARIO WHERE MUCH OF THE PLAINS ARE COOLER, WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN GAP FLOW AREAS AND IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LEE SIDE
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 442 PM MST WED JAN 29 2025
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS, PUB AND ALS AS UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
AND INTO FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW DEVELOPING AT ALS BETWEEN 04Z-08Z, AND
AT COS AND PUB BETWEEN 06Z-10Z. IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH 15Z-17Z WHEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25-35KTS DEVELOP
AND HELP SHUT DOWN THE SNOW WITH VFR CIGS THEN EXPECTED AT ALL
3 TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THURSDAY FOR COZ067-068-
072>075-079-080.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM MST THURSDAY FOR
COZ081-082-084.
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...MW
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